Post #1019: A trend remains a trend until it ceases to be a trend. COVID-19 new case trend to 2/19/2021

Posted on February 20, 2021

U.S. new COVID-19 cases / 100,000 / day are down 72% from the peak.  Texas is still under-reporting due to the recent weather and power events.  There’s no sign that the downward trend is letting up any time soon.  There’s still no post-Super-Bowl case explosion.   And I need to find something new to write about.

Below:  Same as above, just starting on 1/1/2021 with expanded vertical scale.

Below:  A “vote” of the states.  This tabulates, day by day, the count of states where the new COVID-19 case count fell, compared to the day before.  This isn’t “quantitative” in the sense of measuring cases, but it is a way of characterizing the trend that avoids having a few large states dominate the results.

Upshot:  Yup, the thing that looks like a trend, above, still looks like a trend when viewed this way.  At this point, I believe I’m scraping the metaphorical bottom of the statistical barrel, and I need to write about something else.  If at all.