Post #1043, Trend continues to improve

Posted on March 5, 2021

  • New COVID-19 cases are now down 75% from the early January peak.
  • Four out of five states showed declines in new cases yesterday.
  • The Northeast seems to have stabilized. All other regions show declining rates of new cases per day.
  • Florida still shows no apparent effects from the proliferation of the U.K. COVID-19 variant.


The opening of this post is not some secret message.  It’s just an indication that, as far as I can tell, we owe this current good fortune to luck.  Or, if you prefer, to the seasonality of COVID-19.  It’s just that time of the year, more-or-less.

Why do I say this?  Look around the northern hemisphere.  The turning points of this wave of COVID-19 are almost unbelievable well-coordinated across temperate-climate northern hemisphere countries.  Not every one, for sure. But enough to say, this can’t be by chance.

So, if you get the chance, Google “COVID cases USA”, then Canada, Great Britain, Japan.  Four different developed northern hemisphere countries, wtih different health care systems, policy approaches, vaccination rates, and so on.  Peak of the wave was 1/8/2021, plus or minus a day or two.   Inflection point to a slower rate of decline was 2/19/2021, plus or minus a day or two.

Not all developed temperate-climate countries fit this model, but most are close.  Close enough that you’d have to be a bit irrational to attribute the current U.S. success to anything exceptional that we have or haven’t done.  Just being average is adequate.  A falling tide lowers all boats.