Source for featured image: groundhog.org.
The U.S. stands at 30.6 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per day.
That’s down 40% since the 9/1/2021 peak of the Delta wave, and down 11% over the past seven days.
That’s about the extent of what you’ll see in mainstream coverage of this.
And while that’s true, it’s not the entire story. Three regions are still at the peak of their respective Delta waves. Those are the ones to watch now.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 10/8/2021, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html.
At this point, it all boils down to a simple-minded test. The Midwest and Mountain regions led last year’s winter wave. By analogy, then, if the those curves highlighted above
see their shadow turn sharply upward in the next week or two, we’re in for six more weeks of COVID a winter wave.
If not, then not.