Post #1286: COVID-19 update to 10/13/2021, no change

Posted on October 14, 2021

The U.S. is now 47% below the 9/1/2021 peak of daily new COVID-19 cases, and new cases continue to decline at a rate of 11% per week.  Today’s count is 27.5 new cases per 100K per day, down from 28 yesterday.

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 10/13/2021, from”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at

No sign of a winter wave yet.  But today’s weather is newsworthy, and looks like this, per the Washington Post:

Source:  Washington Post

Just to pick a town at random, current conditions in Pocatello, ID, imply 25% indoor relative humidity at 68F/20C, for untreated indoor air.  Looks like conditions similar to that prevail across much of the northern Midwest and Mountain areas.


That’s well into the range that should encourage the spread of viral respiratory infections.  So, if we don’t see a significant uptick in cases within two weeks (typical lag between infection and reporting), I’m willing to call it for no winter wave this year.