This is an update of a recent post in which I calculated the approximate odds the President’s hospitalization and death from COVID-19. The calculation starts from the observed rates of hospitalization and death for the 70-79 year old population of Virginia, then makes appropriate adjustments.
I’m updating that to remove one large adjustment, dealing with COVID-19 infections in Virginia that are never formally diagnosed. These tend to be people who have no or negligible symptoms of COVID-19. That adjustment is obsolete, now that the President and First Lady are known to be symptomatic (fever, dry cough). Clearly, at this point, had they been ordinary Virginia citizens, they would have been tested for COVID-19. Hence, the large pool of low-severity cases that never received a formal COVID-19 diagnosis in Virginia is now irrelevant, and needs to be removed from the calculation.
Best guess, I now think the odds look something like this:
- Less than 5.4% risk of hospitalization
- Less than 2.3% risk of death.
How much less? Tough to say, but the key here is that this was diagnosed at more-or-less the earliest possible moment, and treatment began immediately. Treatment includes the two best drug options currently available, such as they are.