Updated 5/27/2020, Coronavirus graphs and key links

Posted on May 24, 2020

Key graphs and links for COVID-19 in Virginia and Fairfax County

Quick bottom line:  Back to the new normal.  Maybe 900 new cases a day in Virginia, maybe 250 new cases a day in Fairfax, maybe 4 new cases a day in ZIP 22810.  There was a little spike in cases over the past week, but the seven-day moving average remains more-or-less flat.

1a:  Daily count of total cases, ZIP codes 22180, 22181, 22182.  Updated 5/26/2020.  I’m graphing total cases, not new cases, here.  My guess is, with the small numbers involved, the new cases would jump around too much from day-to-day.  Counts shown are the actual 22810 case counts.  Please be aware that this currently represents just a handful of new cases each day.  

There was no clear slowdown in new infections in ZIP 22180.


1b:  Daily count of new cases, Virginia (blue) and Fairfax County (orange).   Updated 5/27/2020  (Fairfax data exclude City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church)

The bars on these graphs are the counts of new coronavirus cases reported each day, for the past 28 days.  The black line is a seven-day moving average, intended to “smooth” the daily counts.

Bottom line:  Back to the status quo, a few hundred cases a day in Fairfax.

Update of Post #699, Virginia re-opening analysis, through 5/26/2020.  No change in the trends of cases in the early-opening and late-opening portions of Virginia.

That said, this is really no great shakes, as you can see a similar (but temporary) flattening of the blue line circa 5/7/2020.

2:  Daily new cases, as percent of cumulative total, with week-ahead linear projection, Virginia and and Fairfax CountyUpdated 5/27/2020  Solid line is straight-line fit to the data, showing a one-week-ahead projection of the current trend.


The bars on these graphs show the daily count of new coronavirus cases, as a percent of the total number of cases reported so far.  From top to bottom, you have a view of the last four weeks, last two weeks, and last week.  The black line is a simple straight-line fit to the data points (linear regression).

That black line extends forward for one week.  If current trends continue, that’s where you’d expect the daily case growth rate to be, one week from now.  If it crosses the X-axis, that means you’d expect new cases to cease, at that point, using this simple straight-line projection.

Bottom line:  We’re nowhere, trend-wise.  No end in sight.

1b)  Table of weekly change in cases.  Updated 5/24/2020.  Consistent with the rest of the graphs, this past week had maybe 200 fewer new coronavirus cases in Fairfax than we have seen for the past few weeks.  The orange numbers were hovering around 1600, this past week they were under 1400.  The Commonwealth as a whole is still getting about 6000 new cases per week.

3:  Virginia Department of Health Coronavirus Dashboard.

Go to this link for the most up-to-date count of cases by county, as well as information demographics of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

4:  Virginia Hospitals and Healthcare Association Coronavirus Dashboard.

Go to this link to see how the Virginia hospital system is holding up, including ventilators current available, and count of hospitals that anticipated difficulty replenishing personal protected equipment within the next three days.