Post #988: Trend to 2/1/2021. Texas data reporting issue.

Posted on February 2, 2021

The 2/1/2021 numbers bring an apparent uptick in Texas, but it’s just a data reporting issue.  It’s due to a backlog of cases that all got reported yesterday.   Absent that, we remain on a slow crawl toward normalcy.

I think I’ll just present the numbers in this post, and talk about them in the next.


Texas data anomaly

Per the Texas covid dashboard:
In addition to 11,885 new confirmed cases, DSHS is also reporting 3,306 older confirmed cases reported by ... In addition to 2,248 new probable cases, DSHS is also reporting 292 older probable cases reported by  ...Region 7 reported a large number of new and older cases today due to ongoing data entry and data cleaning efforts:  A total of 12,836 older confirmed cases were reported for ...A total of 1,244 older probable cases were reported for ...


That’s enough to perturb the South Central regional number, but not the national number.

U.S. and six regions

When I graph this in raw case counts, the national line above (blue) looks like  the rate of decline is slowing down.  But it’s not.  The way to see that is to graph it in logs, where constant growth rates graph as straight lines, as below.

And so, things remain on a slow slide toward normalcy.