Post #1152: COVID-19 trend to 5/27/2021

Posted on May 28, 2021

As we go into Memorial Day weekend, new COVID-19 case cases per day are more than two-thirds below the peak of the fourth U.S. COVID-19 wave.

New cases



Source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 5/28/2021, from”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at

If we compare the situation this week (top) to last week (bottom), in addition to the generally lower rate of new COVID-19 cases, there overall rate of decline has slowed somewhat.

There appears to be an increase in cases in the Pacific region, but this is probably just a data reporting anomaly.  The increase is due to a sharp uptick in new cases in Washington State.  Based on a description of that in the NY Times as ” … a backlog of cases from unspecified days”.


The pace of vaccination continues to fall, but that aggregate number doesn’t tell the full story.

Source:  CDC

The pace is being kept up to some degree due to opening up vaccination to children age 12 to 16.  Growth in newly vaccinated individuals among middle-aged and elderly adults was almost nil.  We probably should not expect to see those numbers go much higher than they are now.

Source:  Calculated from CDC data.

No COVID-19-free states yet.

And so we’re reaching this odd stasis where COVID-19 new case rates are low, case rates are compressing toward some low average, but every state still has COVID-19 circulating in the population.   Nobody seems to have reached herd immunity at the state level, and everybody still has some modest level of new COVID-19 cases per day.  Seems like no state can get that rate below 3 new cases per 100,000 per day.

Few COVID-19 free counties.

To finish off this analysis, I once again looked for counties of at least 5,000 population that had zero new COVID-19 cases over the past four weeks.  Last time I did this, I found five.  This time I found twelve.  But, as before, they are all small rural counties.  There is still not a single urbanized county (or even mid-sized rural county) where COVID-19 appears to have disappeared entirely.