Post #1154: COVID-19 trend to 6/6/2021

Posted on June 7, 2021

We are now 80% below the peak of the fourth wave in terms of new COVID-19 cases per day.  The weekly percent decline in new cases continues to accelerate.

Here’s the trend through yesterday (below).  This is on a log scale, so a steeper slope means a faster rate of decline.  The little “glitch” in the national curve, near the right-hand end, is the impact of the Memorial Day holiday.  As you can see from the embedded data table, in almost all cases, the rates of decline in daily new cases get larger as time passes.

Source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 6/7/2021, from”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at

Only Wyoming and Colorado remain above 10 new cases / 100,000 / day.  Roughly half the states have a rate of 4 new cases / 100,000 / day or fewer.

There’s no indication that we’ll see a repeat of last year’s mid-summer peak in hot climate states.   The graph below shows the five hot-climate states that accounted for most of the U.S. second wave of COVID-19.   If there were going to be a similar mid-summer wave this year, rates in those states should have started rising.  There’s no indication of that.