Post #1360: Brief update on the U.S. Omicron wave, Monday night: Party Naked.

Posted on December 20, 2021

Party naked.

Well, that’s a surprise.

Seriously, if what’s being reported this evening is correct, then we’re done with COVID for the time being.  In particular, we’re done with Omicron.

Normally, the CDC releases updates on its estimate of variants, as a proportion of the circulating COVID-19 infections, on Tuesday.  Says so right here:

I had been hawking this Tuesday’s release, because I had predicted an estimate of maybe 12.3 percent. Per this post, from just two days ago.

But here we are on Monday, and we see that Omicron is estimated — on Monday — to be 73% of US cases.  Here’s a reference, but it’s all over the internet.

But, but, but  …

I’m not going to go into the detail.  In particular, how the CDC has revised the 2.9% estimate from last week to 13%.  A four-fold error?  That does not sync with (e.g.) estimates from Europe.

But, well, they said what they said.

But if that 73% is real, then the U.S. is already over the Omicron wave, and hey, hallelujah.

Let just try to explain that.  If it was 73%, on average, for the week ending 12/18/2021, then it actually hit 73% on or about 12/15/2021.  And if the unrestrained doubling time is under two days (which you can’t extrapolate out once the percentage gets this high, but let me just cut the residual 27% in half every two days), then as of today (12/20/2021), Omicron already accounts for something like 94% of all new cases.

The remarkable thing, if the CDC is right this time, is that Omicron became the dominant variant with no notable increase in cases.  With no notable change in hospitalizations, one way or the other.  And with, so far, no notable increase in deaths.

So if that’s true, we’re well and truly done for the time being.  And Omicron is a total dud here.  Versus South Africa.  Or Great Britain.  Or Europe in general.

Okey dokey.  Looks like an error to me.  I think we’re still in process, and we have not yet seen our Omicron wave.  But I’ll try to sort it out in the morning.

As I said, if true — if somehow Omicron has take over here, with no marked increase in daily new cases — then we’re good to go.  Party naked, COVID-wise.