Post #1437: COVID-19 trend to 2/17/2022, no surprises.

Posted on February 18, 2022

 

U.S. new COVID-19 cases fell to 35 per 100K population per day, down 45 percent in the past seven days.  Judging from the continuing decline in cases in the states that led the Omicron wave, we can expect this to continue for at least another week or two.

For all intents and purposes, I could just keep putting up the same graphs day after day, and I don’t think you’d be able to tell the difference.

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 2/18/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

On that last graph, maybe we’re finally starting to see some slowdown in the rate of decline for New York and New Jersey.  That weak inflection point is four weeks after their peaks, which occurred about a week before the U.S. peak.  That suggests that we’ve got maybe another week before the U.S. as a whole enters into the same sort of mild slowdown in the rate of decline.

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