Post #1440: William and Mary COVID-19 trend to 2/21/2022: Still moving in the wrong direction.

Posted on February 22, 2022

 

Source:  Calculated from William and Mary COVID-19 dashboard.  Virginia data were extrapolated from the most recent (2/18/2022) data by age, from the Virginia Department of Health.

For the past week, William and Mary saw an average of 15 newly-diagnosed COVID-19 cases per day.  That’s an increase compared to last week, and that now works out to be about seven times the rate of new cases in the 18-24 population of Virginia as a whole.

Plausibly this is not a serious threat to health, given the generally milder nature of Omicron, and given the generally high rates of vaccination and boosters among the student population. Plausibly.

That said, it’s hardly something to be proud of, and we appear to be under-performing relative to peer schools in Virginia.

Above are large (5000+ enrollment) Virginia colleges and universities with at least some on-campus residences, showing the rate of new COVID-19 cases per nominal total enrollment for the past week.  (These enrollments figures all exceed actual on-campus enrollment to a larger or smaller extent, including the number for William and Mary).

Even though this isn’t the cleanest of comparisons, it shows you that, on paper at least, of all the major residential colleges and universities in Virginia, William and Mary now ranks first in COVID-19 incidence. 

In fairness, there is a lot of variation in what’s being reported in the table above.  Not every comparison is a proper apples-to-apples comparison.  That said, for the ones that should be close to correct — e.g., U.Va — disease incidence at William and Mary looks to be out-of-line with our peers.

Probably not a huge cause for concern, all things considered.  But certainly nothing to be proud of, either.