As everyone sounds the all-clear here in the U.S., it may still be a good idea to keep an eye on what’s been happening in the U.K. For all I can tell, they seem to be on track for yet-another-surge.
I’ve been noting the uptick in U.K cases for a while now. As of three days ago, their (seven-day moving average) new case count returned to where it was in early February.
Now, three days later, it’s back to where it was in late January:
Source for both graphs is, I think, Johns Hopkins, via Google Search.
For those of you marking your scorecards, that’s a 26 percent increase in new cases in the U.K. in the past seven days. That’s not quite the 50 percent per week rate that occurred just prior to the January 4 Omicron peak in the U.K. But that’s still a pretty fast rate of growth.
I have two plausible things that I might attribute that to. My brother says that mask use is virtually non-existent in London now, including on the London Tube. But in addition, the U.K. long passed the point at which son-of-Omicron (BA.2), the more-contagious version of Omicron, became the dominant strain there.
Whatever the reason — less hygiene or a more contagious variant — here in the U.S., we’re more-or-less on that same path. We’re just a bit behind. And masks are still required on public transport, owing (I think) to a Federal (not state) mandate for that. (Presumably, the ability to mandate that is based on the Federal government’s role in paying for much of public transport in the U.S.)
As of today, the U.S. CDC says that BA.2 accounted for just under one-quarter of new U.S. cases (for the week ending 3/12/2022).
Source: CDC COVID data tracker.
Self-reported mask use is down about about 40% since the peak of the Omicron wave:
Source: Carnegie-Mellon University COVIDcast.
And so, you do have to wonder what’s going to happen next.
It’s not difficult at all to find places where cases are rising again, after having peaked. Or where they haven’t yet had the peak of their Omicron wave.
I hate to be that guy, but the the fat lady has not really sung yet. Right now, “COVID-19 is behind us” remains an unproven statement. It’s well worth keeping an eye on the U.K. to see how this latest surge develop.
