Category: Analysis

Anything that I have tested empirically, or explain with detailed calculations, or just generally bother to get all the facts straight.

Post #279: Beds/acre for Sunrise in Northern Virginia

The Sunrise Assisted Living facility proposed for Maple and Center streets seems to me to be a very space-constrained building. They have managed to create plans for a 100-bed facility on this site, but with little space to spare.

For example, many comments in public meetings have pointed out that the proposed level of parking appears inadequate.  Further, Sunrise had to include a partial (mezzanine) 5th floor in order to get a facility with 100 beds.  And they appear to have been unable to get both 100 beds and an all-retail first floor without including an illegally-large mezzanine 5th floor (a layout that was abandoned early on).

But is it true that this facility is a “tight fit” for this lot, or is it just my impression?  It’s not as if I’ve seen a lot of plans for assisted living facilities.  How can I tell, objectively, how this proposed building ranks in terms of being a “tight fit” on the lot?

In this post, I  compare the proposed Vienna facility to other Sunrise facilities in Northern Virginia in terms of beds per acre.  The upshot is that the proposed Vienna facility is quite an outlier  in terms of beds per acre.  Objectively, this does appear to be a “tight fit” for Sunrise in this location, based on my calculation of beds per acre.

Detail follows.

Continue reading Post #279: Beds/acre for Sunrise in Northern Virginia

Post #278: The former Sandy Spring Bank location

At the last Town Council public hearing on 380 Maple West (39 condos plus retail at Maple and Wade Hampton), one of the pro-MAC speakers brought up the empty space at the Leslie’s Pool building. It seems to have been vacant for an unusual length of time, and it abuts what appear to be a couple of thriving restaurants.  That’s a little economic puzzle, and I thought I’d try to figure that out.

The answer is that the space is occupied — by the ghost of the former tenant, Sandy Spring Bank.  Near as I can tell, a) Sandy Spring Bank continues to pay the rent on its lease, b) that bank is trying to sublet the space, but c) the lease specifies sub-standard parking for the Sandy Spring side of the building, and d) in all likelihood, Sandy Spring Bank has minimal flexibility in how they sublet the space.

In other words, the space is empty as a result of the ongoing aftermath of an unsuccessful business decision by Sandy Spring Bank.   The property owner is being paid and so probably doesn’t care that the space is empty.  And Sandy Spring Bank likely can do little to sublet the space, other than advertise it as it stands:  $60/sq ft/year in total costs, and just ten parking spaces.

To be clear, it’s not an indication of decay on Maple Avenue.  It’s an indication that, sometimes, business decisions go wrong.  And that if you have deep pockets, and you sign a commercial lease, one way or the other, you are stuck paying for that property for the duration of the lease.

Detail follows.

Continue reading Post #278: The former Sandy Spring Bank location

Post 247: The hundred-day rule

This is a re-posting of material that I posted earlier this year, with just a little additional information.  The gist of this is, maybe now is a good time to review the 100-day rule that the Town adheres to in rezoning matters.

Nearly every other government entity in the Commonwealth of Virginia gives the governing body (.e.g., Town Council, City Council, County Board of Supervisors) one year to make rezoning decisions, once the Planning Commission has reached a decision.  But in the Town of Vienna, we say that the Town has just 100 days to make such decisions, including both the decision by the Planning Commission and the decision by the Town Council.

And when you figure out how long it takes the Planning Commission to come to its decision, then factor in the need for a public hearing by the Town Council, this means is that you get some very rushed decision-making by the Town Council.  Continue reading Post 247: The hundred-day rule

Post #218: 2019 real estate tax increase – or – The Vienna School of Algebra

The Commonwealth has a rule that whenever real estate assessments rise more than 1 percent, but tax rates don’t fall to offset that (to within one percent), local governments have to publish a notice explaining that.  Just a simple bit of algebra to say, here’s the tax rate that would have offset that assessment increase.  Here’s what we’re actually proposing to charge.  And here’s the difference.  It’s just a way to make sure that citizens know how much their taxes are increasing.

I hate to have to be the one to say this.  But the Town just put out such a notice.  And their arithmetic is wrong.  Grossly incorrect.  I checked similar notices from three other jurisdictions, just to be sure that I was doing the calculation right.

And you know why I hate that?  Based on recent history, the most likely outcome is that, instead of just correcting their algebra, the Town will offer the usual bafflegab as why this unique Town of Vienna algebra is fully justified.  (And then quietly correct it.)

Let me be clear:  There is obviously no intent to deceive, because, clearly, nobody pays the slightest attention to this  notice.  Surely nobody within Town government, and I would guess, nobody (but me) outside of it.  I checked an earlier year, and I’m pretty sure their calculation has been wrong for some time now.

That said, at some level, this is all of-a-piece.  Five floors is really four floors.  A building the size of a football field preserves “small town” Vienna.  And a 5.6% increase in taxes is actually a 3.1 percent tax cut.  It all meshes together.

Detail follow.

Continue reading Post #218: 2019 real estate tax increase – or – The Vienna School of Algebra

Post 216: Accidents involving cars and trucks along Maple

This is a continuation of the prior two posts, same data source.  I’m just going to put up three maps showing 2018 reportable accidents along Maple.  The number of reportable accidents involving bicycles or pedestrians is tiny compared to the total number of car crashes annually on Maple.  As with the prior maps, a “reportable” accident is one involving injury or at least $1500 in property damage.

All (blue = injury, green = property damage only)
Bicycle
Pedestrian

Post 215: Accidents involving bicycles along Maple

This is a continuation of my prior post, same data source.  Bicyclists who get hit by cars along Maple mostly do so when riding in the roadway.  Secondarily, while riding in a crosswalk.  Over the period 2015-2019 (to date), there was one reportable accident involving injury to a bicyclist who was on the sidewalk, crossing a driveway along Maple Avenue.

As in the prior post, the blue dot marks the accident scene.  Same minor caveat applies:  The DMV only plots the accident location when they have GPS latitude and longitude data but they appear to have that information for most if not all accidents in Vienna.

Roadway, Tom Yum Thai
Sidewalk, Chipotle shopping center driveway
Crosswalk, Westbriar
In the roadway, west of Nutley
Crosswalk, Pleasant Street
In the roadway, east of Courthouse
In the roadway, mattress district
In the roadway, Mill Street

Post 214: Accidents involving pedestrians along Maple Avenue

This page is an introduction to some easy ways to view traffic accident data in Virginia, including interactive maps showing the exact location of each accident via Google Street View.  The point is that you can look at at all pedestrian injuries along Maple for the past five years to see that the sidewalks along Maple are not dangerous.  You incur some small risk when you cross the road.  The risk of vehicular injury while walking down the Maple Avenue sidewalk appears to be negligible.

Continue reading Post 214: Accidents involving pedestrians along Maple Avenue

Post #210: The cost of putting utilities underground

This page gives a brief discussion of the cost of burying the power and phone lines along Maple Avenue.  Best guess, this is going to cost $25M, or roughly the same as the cost of the new community center and the new police station, combined.   It is not clear, yet, what portion of that we are going to pay for.

Continue reading Post #210: The cost of putting utilities underground

Post #208: Maple Avenue retail, goods versus services

I did a rough survey of Maple Avenue retail, just a quick count of establishments by type, following up on my prior estimate of the retail vacancy rate.  The mix of Maple Avenue retail was mentioned at the Town’s 3/20/2019 joint work session, with the basic idea being that service-oriented retail is required to make retail work in Vienna.

In this brief posting, I’m going to give my characterization of Vienna retail.  I don’t think a simple goods-versus-service cut is adequate to understand what we have now.

Continue reading Post #208: Maple Avenue retail, goods versus services