Category: Analysis

Anything that I have tested empirically, or explain with detailed calculations, or just generally bother to get all the facts straight.

Post #328: How many assisted-living beds does Vienna need?

Answer:  About 40.  Maybe a few more, because we’re wealthy, and assisted living is something that you have to be fairly wealthy to afford.   Maybe a few less, because our resident population is a little younger than the US average.  But, best guess, if we use assisted living at the US average rate, then 40 assisted living beds would serve the needs of the entire Town of Vienna.

I calculated that back in March, when Sunrise assisted living (proposed for Maple and Center) was a hot topic, but never got around to making that public.  Here, I work through the arithmetic, then just line out the variety of options available for elderly who have various levels of need for assistance.

If you want information on assisted living, in general, in Northern Virginia, see Post #205.

Continue reading Post #328: How many assisted-living beds does Vienna need?

Post #316: MAC versus Mosaic, retail density is an issue

In Post #313, I came to the surprising conclusion that Maple Avenue, at Glyndon, is more “retail dense” than the Mosaic district.  You have more retail square footage, and more establishments, within a quarter-mile walk of that intersection, than are in the Mosaic district.  Although, obviously, the mix of establishments in Vienna is radically different from that in Mosaic..

This raises another question:  How’s the “retail density” of the new MAC mixed-use projects working out?  These are all at the west end of Maple.  If you took the entire western half-mile of Maple (so, a quarter-mile walk in each direction) and built both sides of the road up at the observed MAC density (so, one mile of Maple Avenue frontage), would it equal equal the 350,000 square feet of retail found in the Mosaic District?  Or even the nearly 440,000 square feet of retail at the “Glyndon Shopping District” on Maple?
Continue reading Post #316: MAC versus Mosaic, retail density is an issue

Post #313: Maple versus Mosaic, retail density is not the issue

Post #302 made the case that you can’t expect the entire Maple Avenue corridor to become one big “vibrant, pedestrian-oriented” shopping district.  Any such district would have to be smaller than the length of Maple.  Post #310 pointed out that the Town has no plan for any area smaller than all of Maple.

In this post, I’m going to start to characterize what does and doesn’t appear to work, in this immediate area, in terms of getting that “vibrant, pedestrian-oriented” shopping experience.  I focus on the Mosaic District, then turn to Maple.

And there I got a surprise.  Define “retail density” as the number of retail establishments within a quarter-mile walk of some point.  I figured that Maple Avenue, with those old-fashioned shopping centers, could not possibly be as “retail dense” as Mosaic.  I figured, maybe the reason you don’t see people walking to the shops on Maple is that they are far too spread out.

But that’s wrong.  The center of Mosaic (Strawberry Lane Park/Target) has 81 retail establishments within a quarter-mile walk.  Mosaic claims 350,00 square feet of retail space.  I assumed the sprawling Maple Avenue, with its old-fashioned shopping centers, would have nowhere near that density.  Dead wrong.  The corner of Maple and Glyndon has 107 retail establishments within that same quarter-mile walking distance.   Using Fairfax County tax maps, I calculate just under 440,000 square feet of retail space in that area.

Within a quarter-mile walking distance of the intersection of Maple and Glyndon, there is more total retail space and there are more total establishments than within the Mosaic district.

Continue reading Post #313: Maple versus Mosaic, retail density is not the issue

Post #308: The tear-down boom (again), and the McLeanification of Vienna

The main point of this article is to show you a few graphics that I stumbled across.  So let me get that out of the way up front.  I’m not sure there’s a lot of point to this posting beyond that, other than quantifying what you already know:  They sure are building a lot of big houses in Vienna.  And, at the end, I suggest one possible change in zoning policy:  Letting them cut those big houses in half — as duplexes — would provide a type of less-expensive family-oriented housing that is really getting scarce here in Vienna.

The data:  Single family homes for sale

Per Redfin (with full attribution and acknowledgement of copyright), below is a map of single-family houses for sale in Vienna VA.   I’ve followed that with equivalent maps for Oakton, Fairfax City,  Falls Church, and McLean. These are followed by table showing relevant data for each location.

Take a minute to study the dollar values on the maps, or on the summary table following the maps. Scan for houses under $1M and under $500K.  Do the dollar values for Vienna seem a bit “rich”, compared to your understanding of these communities?

Continue reading Post #308: The tear-down boom (again), and the McLeanification of Vienna

Post #294: Another empty storefront filled, and the ghost of Sandy Spring bank is exorcised

This is a brief follow Post #278, regarding the empty retail space next to the Leslie’s Pool store on Maple.  I was curious as to why that storefront had been empty for such a long time.  But, in fact, as outlined Post #278, Sandy Spring Bank (the former tenant) was still paying the rent and trying to sublet the space.

Now, a veterinary clinic/animal hospital would like to move into that space.  This will be discussed at the 8 PM Wednesday June 12 meeting of the Planning Commission.  Materials on that topic are posted at this link.

Oddly, while the advertisement for the space (see Post #278 above) says that it only has 10 parking places, as far as the Town of Vienna is concerned, the entire building is parked as a whole, without division between the two tenants.  This, according to the materials posted at the link above.  Thus, as far as the Town is concerned, the entire complex (Leslie’s Pool and the new veterinary clinic) have adequate parking for the proposed commercial use.

Presumably the space will not be vacant much longer.

Post #285: A break from MAC to talk about something even more depressing

I finally have a week without a MAC-oriented public meeting, and I’m going to take this opportunity to lay out my plan for stopping and reversing global warming, within our children’s lifetimes.

Sufficient warning

If you don’t believe that global warming is real, just don’t bother to read this one.  If you have some sort of happy fantasy that global warming will be good for the U.S.A., again, just move along.  And if you think this can be easily addressed with anything short of drastic measures, likewise.

Also, I’m going to do this one without citation as to source of information.  If there’s sufficient interest I’ll go back and document everything I say in this posting. Continue reading Post #285: A break from MAC to talk about something even more depressing

Post #279: Beds/acre for Sunrise in Northern Virginia

The Sunrise Assisted Living facility proposed for Maple and Center streets seems to me to be a very space-constrained building. They have managed to create plans for a 100-bed facility on this site, but with little space to spare.

For example, many comments in public meetings have pointed out that the proposed level of parking appears inadequate.  Further, Sunrise had to include a partial (mezzanine) 5th floor in order to get a facility with 100 beds.  And they appear to have been unable to get both 100 beds and an all-retail first floor without including an illegally-large mezzanine 5th floor (a layout that was abandoned early on).

But is it true that this facility is a “tight fit” for this lot, or is it just my impression?  It’s not as if I’ve seen a lot of plans for assisted living facilities.  How can I tell, objectively, how this proposed building ranks in terms of being a “tight fit” on the lot?

In this post, I  compare the proposed Vienna facility to other Sunrise facilities in Northern Virginia in terms of beds per acre.  The upshot is that the proposed Vienna facility is quite an outlier  in terms of beds per acre.  Objectively, this does appear to be a “tight fit” for Sunrise in this location, based on my calculation of beds per acre.

Detail follows.

Continue reading Post #279: Beds/acre for Sunrise in Northern Virginia

Post #278: The former Sandy Spring Bank location

At the last Town Council public hearing on 380 Maple West (39 condos plus retail at Maple and Wade Hampton), one of the pro-MAC speakers brought up the empty space at the Leslie’s Pool building. It seems to have been vacant for an unusual length of time, and it abuts what appear to be a couple of thriving restaurants.  That’s a little economic puzzle, and I thought I’d try to figure that out.

The answer is that the space is occupied — by the ghost of the former tenant, Sandy Spring Bank.  Near as I can tell, a) Sandy Spring Bank continues to pay the rent on its lease, b) that bank is trying to sublet the space, but c) the lease specifies sub-standard parking for the Sandy Spring side of the building, and d) in all likelihood, Sandy Spring Bank has minimal flexibility in how they sublet the space.

In other words, the space is empty as a result of the ongoing aftermath of an unsuccessful business decision by Sandy Spring Bank.   The property owner is being paid and so probably doesn’t care that the space is empty.  And Sandy Spring Bank likely can do little to sublet the space, other than advertise it as it stands:  $60/sq ft/year in total costs, and just ten parking spaces.

To be clear, it’s not an indication of decay on Maple Avenue.  It’s an indication that, sometimes, business decisions go wrong.  And that if you have deep pockets, and you sign a commercial lease, one way or the other, you are stuck paying for that property for the duration of the lease.

Detail follows.

Continue reading Post #278: The former Sandy Spring Bank location

Post 247: The hundred-day rule

This is a re-posting of material that I posted earlier this year, with just a little additional information.  The gist of this is, maybe now is a good time to review the 100-day rule that the Town adheres to in rezoning matters.

Nearly every other government entity in the Commonwealth of Virginia gives the governing body (.e.g., Town Council, City Council, County Board of Supervisors) one year to make rezoning decisions, once the Planning Commission has reached a decision.  But in the Town of Vienna, we say that the Town has just 100 days to make such decisions, including both the decision by the Planning Commission and the decision by the Town Council.

And when you figure out how long it takes the Planning Commission to come to its decision, then factor in the need for a public hearing by the Town Council, this means is that you get some very rushed decision-making by the Town Council.  Continue reading Post 247: The hundred-day rule

Post #218: 2019 real estate tax increase – or – The Vienna School of Algebra

The Commonwealth has a rule that whenever real estate assessments rise more than 1 percent, but tax rates don’t fall to offset that (to within one percent), local governments have to publish a notice explaining that.  Just a simple bit of algebra to say, here’s the tax rate that would have offset that assessment increase.  Here’s what we’re actually proposing to charge.  And here’s the difference.  It’s just a way to make sure that citizens know how much their taxes are increasing.

I hate to have to be the one to say this.  But the Town just put out such a notice.  And their arithmetic is wrong.  Grossly incorrect.  I checked similar notices from three other jurisdictions, just to be sure that I was doing the calculation right.

And you know why I hate that?  Based on recent history, the most likely outcome is that, instead of just correcting their algebra, the Town will offer the usual bafflegab as why this unique Town of Vienna algebra is fully justified.  (And then quietly correct it.)

Let me be clear:  There is obviously no intent to deceive, because, clearly, nobody pays the slightest attention to this  notice.  Surely nobody within Town government, and I would guess, nobody (but me) outside of it.  I checked an earlier year, and I’m pretty sure their calculation has been wrong for some time now.

That said, at some level, this is all of-a-piece.  Five floors is really four floors.  A building the size of a football field preserves “small town” Vienna.  And a 5.6% increase in taxes is actually a 3.1 percent tax cut.  It all meshes together.

Detail follow.

Continue reading Post #218: 2019 real estate tax increase – or – The Vienna School of Algebra