Post #1718: Final COVID update, approaching normal.

 

The U.S. is now down to about 8 newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day, based on the latest figures as reported by the New York Times.  That’s down from about 10, two weeks ago, continuing the long, slow decline that began right around Christmas 2022.

That’s still not quite down to the lows that occurred in the summer of 2021.  But we seem to be getting there.  Fairfax County (where I live) currently reports about 4 cases per 100K, compared to fewer than 2 in June 2021 (Post #1163).  Along with that, you’d probably have to figure in less complete reporting now, due to the widespread availability of over-the-counter COVID tests.

The US CDC reports a corresponding continuing decline in COVID-related hospitalizations and COVID as cause-of-death.  Again, taking Virginia as an example, we seem to have between one and three COVID-19 deaths per day (reference).  That’s in a population of about of about 8.7 million.

For me, I think that the U.S. 2022 mortality rate is the last major statistic I’d like to see.  Unfortunately, we won’t see the official U.S. deaths data for 2022 for another month and a half yet.  Arguably the biggest surprise of the pandemic is that the U.S. COVID-19 mortality rate didn’t fall in 2021, but was kept high first by the deadliness of the Delta variant, then by the huge number of cases in the initial ramp-up of the Omicron wave.

Source:  underlying data from the Government of Michigan.

Omicron actually peaked at the end of January 2022, so we can expect the 2022 mortality rate to remain somewhat above the historical average.  The interesting question will be, by how much?  And did the U.S. mortality rate finally return to the long-term average by the end of 2022?  Based on the preliminary data through September 30, 2022, the answer is no.  Mortality rates appear to be coming down, compared to 2020.  But even at that point, the crude mortality rate of 9.2/1000 remained well above the prior long-term average of around 8.2/1000.

Source:  CDC, annotations in red are mine.

As of Q2 2022, COVID-19 accounted for an average of about 3000 deaths per week.  Doing the math, those COVID deaths, by themselves, if they were all “additional” deaths (people who would not have died at that time, absent COVID) would have raised the U.S. mortality rate by five percent, or (on the chart above) by about 0.5.  Thus, the COVID deaths themselves account for only about half the excess mortality that appears to remain, relative to historical trend, as of Q3 2022.

I don’t think this will be worth revisiting once the full-year 2022 mortality data are released.   Thanks in part to the peak of the Omicron wave occurring in 2022, it’s a given that the 2022 mortality rate will exceed the prior historical average of about 8.2/1000.  And it will be another six months before we have any information at all on 2023.

Accordingly, until something changes materially, this will be my last post on COVID-19.

Finally, here’s my “COVID-19 odds” table, updated for the low rates of incidence that we are seeing at present.  Even with that few cases in circulation, if you regularly attend any sort of large group meeting, the odds are that you’re going to be sharing a room with an actively infectious person at some point over the course of a year.

If you come across someone who is still masking up in public, be kind.  They’re not crazy.  Risk of infection is low, but it’s not zero.  They just have a different level of risk aversion from the average.

Post G23-004: Garden plan, 2023, step 2: When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

 

People say the ancients constructed their calendars to keep track of religious holidays, based on astronomical events.  Possibly true.  But a nice side benefit of their religion is that it gave them a clear idea of when to plant their crops in the spring.

In the modern world, of course, we eschew such religion-based planting rituals.  Thus my potatoes will go in the ground on St. Patrick’s day, and no sooner.  Because that’s Science.

If left to my own devices, I would undoubtedly plant too early.  Hence the need for my quasi-religious planting ritual.  Here in Vienna VA, today’s high is expected to be near 80.  Which definitely gets me in a gardening frame of mind.  But tomorrow’s low is well below freezing.  We’re still six weeks from our likely last-frost date.

Without getting into whys and wherefores of our ever-wackier weather, this post  presents my vegetable garden plan for the year.  It takes the form of three questions:

  • Why?
  • What?
  • How?

A brief recap

I started my current round of gardening in order to have something to do during the pit of the COVID-19 pandemic.  If nothing else, shoveling around a few tons of dirt to create raised beds provided much-needed exercise (Post G05).

Many people did the same, leading to shortages of everything gardening-related in 2020.  Starting with empty seed racks at my local hardware stores (Post #G02, April 21, 2020) and ending with a long-lasting shortage of canning jar lids (Post #G21, August 2020).

Gardening was a much nicer experience then than now.  The cessation of much local and long-distance travel meant that the air was cleaner, the skies were blue-er (Post #614, Post #618) , and neighborhoods were a lot quieter.  So quiet I could hear the hum of the bees at work in the garden (Post #G11), a sound I have not heard since.  A big bed of sunflowers, just outside my bedroom window, provided much-needed cheer during what was otherwise a fairly dark time.

But now, the air once again stinks of diesel exhaust, the Northern Virginia summer sky has returned to its traditional smog-white, the constant noise of traffic and construction smothers sound of the bees, and gyms are open for business.

In other words, things are back to normal.


1:  Why?  It’s now my hobby.

When I distill it down, I’m going to continue to garden for four reasons.

One, it gives me a physical activity that actually has a purpose.  Sure, I can go to the gym, and get exercise for exercise’s sake.  I can walk around the neighborhood, for the sake of walking around the neighborhood.  Gardening is a way to get non-pointless exercise.

Two, I really like growing plants.  I guess I can come out and say that.  Mostly food.  But flowers are OK, in moderation.

Third, I’m cheap.  As hobbies go, annual costs don’t get much cheaper than a few pounds of potatoes and a few packets of seeds.  I’m not convinced that my gardening pays for itself in the value of produce.  But the fact that I get anything at all useful out of a hobby is a bonus in and of itself.

Finally, it leaves nothing permanent.  What isn’t eaten turns to compost.  So, unlike (say) woodworking, this doesn’t produce yet-more-clutter, during a period of my life when I’m doing my best to get rid of stuff


2:  What? Only stuff we like to eat.

In an intellectual breakthrough this year, I’ve decided on the following guidelines:

  1. Only plant stuff that we actually like to eat.
  2. Don’t plant stuff that the deer like to eat
  3. Don’t  plant stuff that the bugs like to eat.
  4. Don’t plant stuff susceptible to diseases common in my garden.

Being the kind of guy I am, I of course formalized that with a spreadsheet.  But it doesn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know.

Yellow:  Certain herbs and herb-like plants rank highly here because they are extremely easy to grow, take up little room and cost an arm and a leg at the store.  So, dill and rosemary, which I already grow, and ginger and turmeric, which are apparently easy to grow from grocery-store-purchased product.

Light blue:  Potatoes, sweet potatoes, and winter squash. These all provide a lot of calories per square foot and (so far) have been both extremely easy to grow and highly productive in my garden.  Plus, we like to eat them.

Red:  Tomatoes and sweet peppers.  Easy to grow, we like to eat them.  Say no more.

Dark blue:  The entire garlic and onion clan.  I’ve had such spotty luck with these over the years, I’m going to skip them this year.  Plus, my yields have been lousy.

Green:  Peas, beans, lettuce, okra.  We like to eat them just fine, but all require significant fuss.  And, except for green beans, in a good year, yields are modest at best.  But peas and lettuce can go in when it’s cold, and my wife likes green beans.  So these are definitely going to get planted.  Some.  Not a lot.

Purple:  Cucumbers and summer squash.  I’ve had such a bad time with insect pests that I’m skipping those this year.


3:  How?  When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

After three years in the Virginia climate, my temporary raised beds are “showing their age”.  Which is a nice way of saying “falling apart”.  I put up a set of temporary raised beds during the pandemic, recycling some yard signs, bamboo, and other materials around the yard.  Their temporary nature is now showing pretty badly.

I did that to minimize my investment.  I figured that if gardening didn’t work out, I could just tear them apart, spread the dirt on the low spots on the lawn, and plant grass.  Nothing wasted.  Nothing headed for the landfill that wasn’t already headed there before I tried gardening.

So I’ve reached a fork in the road.  Either I do what I had planned on originally, take the beds down, use the dirt to even out the lawn, and be done with gardening.  Or kick it up a notch.

Separately, things snowballed beyond the mere construction of the beds.  In addition to the beds, I now have irrigation line, various types of row cover and insect netting, trellising material, tomato cages, deer deterrent devices, and so on.  Not a huge dollar investment, as these things go.  But it’s a lot of stuff that serves no purpose outside of gardening.

The upshot is that I’m now going to go back and do this right.   But only as a last resort.  The patchwork of temporary beds of varying depths, oriented along the low spots of the lawn, will be replaced by a single long bed oriented east-west, with a permanent trellis along the back.  This will simplify everything from irrigation to protection against deer, and dovetail with the remaining in-ground beds that are now devoted to cane fruits.

I quite like the coroplast (yard sign) sides, and as I have several long sheets of that around, the new bed is going to be coroplast-and-post as well.  I see no reason to import materials if I have durable materials on hand that would otherwise be trash.

As an extra added bonus, this allows me to re-shovel the multiple tons of dirt that I ordered in the first place.  Much better than wasting my time at the gym.  And see how my hugelculture experiment turned out.  There are trash pieces of wood at the bottoms of all these beds, and I’ll get to see what happened to them after three years in the soil.

The goal is to have a single, well-constructed bed of uniform depth, with trellising, deer protection, and irrigation built in.  We’ll see how close I come to that ideal.


 Conclusion

After three years of seat-of-the-pants gardening in temporary raised beds, I have reached a fork in the road.  I’m going to take what I learned in the past three years, and move forward with a single permanent bed incorporating everything I think I need to grow a bit of vegetables and flowers in my back yard.  And at that point, I’ll focus on a few things that we really like to eat fresh out of the garden and that seem to grow well in this climate.  And hope for the best.

Post #1709: Penultimate COVID update, I hope

 

Yesterday the Washington Post reported that Johns Hopkins is winding down its three-year effort to track the COVID numbers.  That’s a pretty good signal that it’s time to wind this down as well.  For now, both the New York Times and the CDC continue to track the data.  If you want something reasonably up-to-date, you can look there.

As it stands, the number of new cases continues to recede slowly.  We’re now down to an average of 10 new cases / 100K population / day, down from 12 last week.  And it’s getting on toward Spring, when incidence of viral respiratory illness normally declines.  So I expect that the numbers will continue on that slow downward trend, moving forward.

I might check this one last time, a month from now, just to see where things stand.  But right now, this is what we live with.   No point in saying anything more.

Continue reading Post #1709: Penultimate COVID update, I hope

Post #1700: COVID, fading in most parts of the country

 

In a little over a week, reported daily new cases in the U.S. fell from 15/100k/day to 12/100k/day.

That said, CDC still reports about 550 COVID-19 deaths per day, and over 4000 COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.

Which is a bit odd, if you think about it.

But if you stare at the CDC website long enough, it sure looks like COVID-19 is increasingly becoming a disease of the oldest old, or, at least, a reportable disease of the oldest old.  Which would nicely reconcile the bits of data above.

Details follow.

Continue reading Post #1700: COVID, fading in most parts of the country

Post #1694: COVID cases stable, but vary widely across areas.

 

I’m going to continue to check in on the rate of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases, from time to time.  It’s unchanged from a couple of weeks ago, at 15 new cases per 100K population per day.

Per the CDC, we’re seeing about 550 COVID-19 deaths per day, and about 4500 COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.  The deaths number is up quite a bit from a few months ago, but winter is hard on the frail elderly.  My take on it is that COVID now sits alongside various forms of pneumonia as a common terminal illness for the oldest old.

The only other thing of note is that there’s a lot of variation across the states. A lot of the Rocky Mountain states are in the neighborhood of 5 /100K / day, a lot of the East Coast is still around 20 / 100K / day.  No idea if that’s real or just variation in propensity to test.

I have rebased my graphs to being with 1/1/2023.

 

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 1/24/2023, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The U.S. flu season continues to fade.  The CDC flu map is now mostly green.

Source:  CDC fluview

Post #1674: COVID-19 cases, no change

 

The only reason I’m posting this is that I’ve seen several recent news articles talking about a new strain of COVID, most transmissible yet, new wave coming, better get vaccinated, and blah blah blah.

Well, yeah, IMHO if you remain concerned about or at risk from COVID, you should get vaccinated.  FWIW, I got the most recent (bivalent) vaccine.

And, yeah, I guess there’s a new strain going around.

As for the rest if it, I don’t see it.  When I left off just before Christmas, we had 21 new cases / 100K / day.  Now we have 20.  Nothing else to say.

Continue reading Post #1674: COVID-19 cases, no change