Category: COVID through 2022

All my various postings tracking the COVID-19 pandemic through the end of 2022.

Post #1552: COVID-19, still 33 new cases per 100K per day

The apparent increase in cases over the July 4th holiday was an artifact of data reporting.  Now that’s past, it looks like the COVID-19 new case rate is unchanged from where it was a month and a half ago.

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 7/7/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

What’s odd and somewhat disturbing is that COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to rise.  Below, cases are red, hospitalizations are yellow.  No idea why hospitalizations continue to rise, but we’re now well over 5,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day in the U.S.

Source: CDC COVID data tracker.

I would like to verify that total cases remain unchanged (not just the officially reported case count), but the last remaining independent data source appears to have quit.  The survey-based portions of the Carnegie-Mellon University COVIDcast website have not been updated since June 25.  I can only guess that means they’ve stopped doing their internet-based survey.  Which means I can no longer track their measures on the fraction of the population with self-reported COVID-like symptoms.

Post #1549: COVID-19 trend to 7/1/2022, sitting here in Limbo.

 

If I were a stock market analyst, I could look at today’s chart, make up a name (the reverse clamshell formation), declare that it clearly meant that stock prices were going up (or down, doesn’t matter), and make a ton of money as a financial pundit.

But the fact of the matter is that we’re just kind of stuck in COVID-19 limbo.  The U.S. daily new case rate has been at or about the current level since late May.  Going up?  Going down?  Going nowhere?  Beats me. Continue reading Post #1549: COVID-19 trend to 7/1/2022, sitting here in Limbo.

Post #1455: COVID-19 trend to 6/27: Don’t panic … yet. Wait one more day.

 

There’s a big uptick in reported cases today, but it’s (pick one:  somewhat, mostly, kinda-sorta) due to the echoes of the Juneteenth holiday.  So, while it looks like we’re embarking on yet another wave of COVID cases, that’s not a certainty.  Yet.  This will be clearer tomorrow.

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 6/26/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

FWIW, I’m in Ocean City MD this week.  Near as I can tell, nobody under the age of 60 is wearing a mask in the grocery stores.  I assume that’s becoming the norm in most places now.

I can’t quite get my mind around the fact that we really should no longer expect any end to this.  Not with the high degree of “immune escape” of the most recent variants.

I just need to focus on the logic.  There’s a lot of COVID-19 in circulation, neither vaccine nor prior infection provides significant protection against a new COVID infection, and virtually nobody is taking precautions.  Once you absorb that, it doesn’t seem all that crazy that lots of infections but few hospitalizations and deaths is the new normal.

Post #1453: COVID-19, finishing the data week with an uptick in cases

 

The U.S. now stands at 32 new COVID-19 cases per 100K per day, up from 30 yesterday.  And 29 the day before that.  Maybe that’s a blip, but it’s a fairly widespread blip.  It might or might not be some unanticipated artifact of the recent Juneteenth holiday.

That said, it’s just another indication that this current Omicron wave doesn’t appear to be ending any time soon.  If that thought is insufficiently depressing, re-read the last portion of yesterday’s post.

Continue reading Post #1453: COVID-19, finishing the data week with an uptick in cases

Post #1542: COVID-19 to 6/23/2022, no peak in sight. Re-infection and a return-to-normalcy Catch 22.

 

I keep waiting for an end to this U.S. wave of COVID.  I keep being disappointed.  And now, I keep trying to get used to that.

The US is back to 30 new COVID-19 cases per 100K per day, more-or-less unchanged over the past seven days.  Unchanged for more than a month, when you get right down to it.

Continue reading Post #1542: COVID-19 to 6/23/2022, no peak in sight. Re-infection and a return-to-normalcy Catch 22.

Post #1541: COVID-19 trend to 5/22/2022, still 29/100K/day.

 

I expected the second U.S. Omicron wave to start trending downward today.  As you can see, that didn’t happen.   New cases per 100K per day is steady at 29, down 7% in the past seven days.

But, while this wave seems to be lingering beyond all reason, that doesn’t appear to be due to any change in the ability of COVID-19 to re-infect individuals.  At least, not since the original Omicron wave at the end of last year.  That’s my (possibly surprising) conclusion from looking at New York State data on COVID-19 reinfections as a percent of total infections.

Continue reading Post #1541: COVID-19 trend to 5/22/2022, still 29/100K/day.