Post #418: Further followups to the 10/9/2019 Town Council work session

Post #413 is the overview of what went on.  Post #415 is my rant about how not to do a survey.   Both of those were pretty well-documented.

This post, by contrast, is just a set of opinions.  These are mostly observations that I made, or that others who attended that meeting made, and passed along to me.

1:  These meetings are needlessly disorganized.

And the corollary is, somebody needs to step up and keep this process organized.  Hint:  It’s not going to be done by Town staff.

Town Council meetings, in general, strike me as lacking in organization.  It may or may not be obvious when you attend or watch a meeting.  But when you (effectively) transcribe the meetings, as I do when I generate an “index” to match my audio files, it really stands out.  For any significant issue, the discussion just wanders.  Any one issue will be discussed half-a-dozen different times in a meeting — typically with no clear summary or wrap-up or conclusion.  Time isn’t budgeted in any meaningful way, and a disproportionate share of time is spent on the minutia of an item.

I’ve said that before, most recently in a writeup on time management (Post #388). And I acknowledge that this must be a long-standing problem, given that Town Council was struggling with long meeting times back in 1969.

Source:  Town of Vienna newsletter, February 1969, available from this archive of old town newsletters on this Town of Vienna webpage.  

Weirdly, one thing that other local governments routinely do to streamline their meetings appears to be infeasible for Vienna.  That’s Councilman Majdi’s suggestion to use a consent agenda (Post #404) to get minor, non-controversial items out of the way.  I literally couldn’t find a local government that doesn’t use that approach (other than Vienna).  Based on that, I would guess that something as radical as putting estimated times for agenda item would be beyond the pale.  (Fairfax County does that, but none of the smaller local jurisdictions (Herndon, Falls Church, Fairfax City) does.)

But this last work session really brought the lack of organization to the forefront.  Months back, when the Town Council et al.  first started discussions of re-doing MAC, I despaired of the Town ever being able to get through it (Post #325).  With every additional meeting, I continue to despair.  These meetings just end up all over the place.

Here’s my summary of the structure of the 10/9/2019 Town Council work session on revising commercial zoning (including MAC) in Vienna.

  1.  It started down in the weeds.  Town staff provided about 100 pages of “redline” documents.  That is, a marked-up (edited) copy of the Town’s entire commercial zoning ordinance, plus supporting materials.  Apparently, each Town Council member was supposed to provide comments on that 100 pages, and at least one of them (Councilman Potter) did exactly that.
  2. Town staff surprised Town Council with brand-new and highly controversial material.  Then Town staff started to provide an overview of key aspects of MAC, but this included issues that Town Council had never even seen before, such as raising the height limit to 67′ (plus parapets), and two (or three?) plans for reducing the applicable MAC zone to a subset of Maple.
  3. A bit of a free-for-all ensued.  So the presentation and discussion more or less broke down into an unplanned discussion of individual items.  On which there was, may I mildly say, a lack of consensus among Town Council.
  4. It eventually became apparent to some members that they needed to hash out the big-picture items first before they edited the 100 page document.  Only at the end of the meeting did they decide that they needed to discuss the big picture first, and then get down into the weeds.  The last 15 or so minutes of the meeting consisted of Town Council deciding that each individual would write out their “big ticket” items, and that Town staff would compile that list.
  5. And they realized they needed to get feedback from the public, on these big issues, before proceeding to rewrite the law.   Credit for Councilman Noble for insisting that the Town do a proper, random-sample survey, to see what citizens think about these changes to the zoning rules.  (Town staff had planned to do another non-random internet survey, and it’s far from clear to me that Town staff are the right people to do a proper survey (Post #415).

The upshot is that they just sort of stumbled through it.  And only at the end of the day did they realize they had not one, but two major steps to take before they got down into the details of editing the 100 pages of Town statute.  But I will say that they at least, at the end, came away with two action items:  Create a list of things to discussion, and do a proper (random-sample) survey of Vienna residents about those items.

I mean, by the end of it, I think they got the process right.  They really do have to reach agreement on (e.g.) how big the buildings will be, and so on, before they can get into the details of rewriting the statute.  And they probably ought to get some clean feedback from Vienna citizens.  And (not mentioned above), the idea of getting some handle on the economics of redevelopment was a good one.

By the end, it was evident to many observers — not just me — that nobody was running the show.  I’ve now had two people, at two different times, give me their own versions of this same observation.  The meeting was not quite a random walk.  It did eventually get to some sort of conclusion.  But my gosh, if this is the pace of progress, it’s going to be years, if ever, before this gets done.

This meeting was the easy part.  They didn’t have to try to reach consensus about anything other than what the next steps should be.  When they start in on the actual details of the law, I can’t imagine how this laissez-faire approach can possibly work.

Maybe the Town needs to have a paid, disinterested consultant come in and run this process for them.  Literally hire someone to run these work sessions.  Not an expert in zoning, but an expert in running meetings with an eye toward reaching consensus on controversial topics.  These meetings aren’t going to run themselves.  But right now, that seems to be the plan.

Finally, I can tell you what I don’t want to see.  I don’t want to see this go “underground”, and have the details worked out with another steering committee, ad-hoc committee, or other small, selected group of individuals.  I just perceive too much potential for mischief.  As I now understand it, the original MAC was presented to Town Council for a yes/no vote.  Town Council, as a whole, did not have the option to modify the law as it was presented to them.  However difficult it may be for Town Council to proceed in the current fashion, I don’t think they want to go back to the methods used for the original MAC development.

2:  Additionality and compactness:  Town Council still doesn’t “get it” regarding open/gathering/green space.

There are two basic, simple, and purely technical points that Town Council keeps walking around, rather than addressing.

The first is “additionality”. 

The existing open-space requirement and the proposed “gathering space” requirement double-count spaces that already have to be kept open, by law.  And, as a result, you can end up with no additional open space, beyond that which was already required.

For example, as currently written, MAC buildings must be set back at least 20′ from the Maple Avenue curb.  All of that setback that is not literally in the Town’s right-of-way counts in the open/gathering space calculation.  Even though the builder has absolutely no choice but to provide that 20′, by statute.  In addition, any sort of walkway that is needed merely to service the building, counts as open space.  But the builders would have to provide a way for people to get in and out of the building, in any case.

This is what led me to point out how ineffective the existing “open space” requirement was.  In the case of 444 Maple West, it did virtually nothing.  The “open space” requirement didn’t result in any additional open space — it merely counted a bunch of spaces that would have had to be open, either by law, or simply to allow the building to be used.  Like this, from the post cited just above, on the then-current version of 444 Maple West.

Currently, our wily Department of Planning and Zoning has taken to evaluating existing MAC buildings and proposals against a new version of this, deemed “gathering space”.  These new evaluations seem to show that this new “gathering space” rule would be effective.  But that’s a trick, and nobody who has worked with legislation should be fooled by it.  You are looking at buildings that had been built to satisfy the existing (“open space”) law.  If the alternative (“gathering space”) law had been in effect, those buildings would have been built to satisfy the new law.  Evaluating buildings structured to satisfy one law, by looking at them through the lens of a different law, shows nothing.  My point is that these comparisons explicitly do not show that the “gathering space” rule would create additional open space.  All they show is that building structured to satisfy one open-space rule would have had to have been restructured if they were to satisfy a different open-space rule.

Upshot #1:  If you want a rule that creates additional open space, beyond that already required by law, then you need to write a rule that explicitly calls for additional open space.  You have to eliminate the double-counting.

The second technical point is what Town Council keeps mis-labeling as “contiguous”.

Contiguous just means that all the parts of the area touch one another.  So, for example, the existing sidewalk around the Tequila Grande site is contiguous.  The sidewalk and mowing strip together are quite narrow at this intersection (only about 8′ wide), but those account for about 5500 square feet of contiguous open space.

“CONTIGUOUS”

You couldn’t hold a meeting on that sidewalk — it’s worthless as a gathering space.  But it’s 5500 square feet of contiguous open space.

I think what the Town would actually like to see is what I term “compact” space.  (But I made that up.  There is no simple English word for “not stretched thin”.)  I think that’s what the Town was after, in the “parks and plazas” phrase in the MAC statement of purpose and intent.  Here’s the same 5500 square feet, but as “compact” space, in the sense of not stretched thin.

“COMPACT”

That space is about 75′ on a side (to within my drawing error).  It is exactly as if you took all of that sidewalk/utility strip space, folded it up, and made something useful out of it.  At that point, you do have some sort of “gathering space”.  (Although, as I continue to state, it would not be very pleasant due to the noise.)

Upshot #2:  If you want something like the picture above, to be “parks and plazas”, you’re going to have to write it into the law.  Something like, x% of the open space will consist of a single area where the longest dimension is no more than N times the shortest dimension.  You’re going to have to rule out “open space” that consists of nothing but (contiguous) long, skinny space, like a sidewalk.

A

3:  Someone needs to draw the map that was outlined, live, during the meeting.

At this meeting, Town staff put up several options for restricting additional MAC buildings to the core of the Town.  They presented two maps, but the Town Council asked them to sketch out a third map, on the fly.  That third map was all the existing MAC lots that do not adjoin residential property.   As it turns out, that looked to be just two blocks or so, of the oldest section of the Vienna downtown.

Please don’t let that third map be forgotten.  If necessary, I can re-play that portion of the meeting, and sketch it in.  But I think that the idea of a central business district is fairly classic, and I would hate to lose sight of the idea that some small part of the Vienna downtown could be rebuilt without directly abutting the surrounding neighborhoods.

I could keep going, but I’ve probably hit the TLDR point for most readers.  Let me stop with just these three points.

Post #417: Community meeting re 380 Maple West

This is an update of Post #406, a community meeting to introduce the new owner and developer of 380 Maple Avenue West.

Courtesy of Vienna Citizens for Responsible Development, we now know that the meeting will be Tuesday October 29, 7:30 PM at the Vienna Community Center, Northside room.

Based on the current owner’s statement at a recent Town Council meeting, the building is probably going to be an assisted living facility.

Beyond that there are only rumors, but the rumor that makes the most sense to me is that it will be Sunrise Assisted Living.  That would presumably result in Sunrise withdrawing its $30M lawsuit against the Town of Vienna (Post #342).  It might plausibly account for the recent postponement of the initial hearing (Post #405).  But, to be completely clear, that’s rumor.

My guess is that the building will have to be changed enough, to be used as an assisted-living facility, that this is going to have to go back through all of the Town’s various processes — BZA, BAR, PC, TC.  So, you’ll likely have plenty of other opportunities to hear about what they are going to do.

The picture at the top of this posting illustrates another odd twist to this deal, beyond the lawsuit.  Sunrise’s local rival, Kensington assisted living, had already expressed an interest in building at the site of the former BB&T bank, which is more-or-less directly across the street from 380 Maple West. They had, for example, surveyed residents of the adjacent neighborhood and had asked Town Council to vacate an alleyway right-of-way at the back of that lot.

It’s not clear that they will be able to pursue that, given the possible changes in MAC zoning.  But if they can, and still want to, that would lead to the oddity of these competing assisted living facilities being almost directly across the street from one another.  Alternatively, with Sunrise taking over the 380 Maple West property, this might preclude Kensington from using that site.  (For exactly that reason — it would look odd to have two assisted living facilities facing off across Maple Avenue.)

A final and disturbing oddity of this particular street corner is that a restaurant that has long been a fixture of Vienna appears to be deeply in arrears on its property taxes.  That may put yet another large lot into play for redevelopment in my neighborhood.

All of that pretty much mangles up any idea of Vienna having a center of town, or a central business district.  And, along with the new Wawa, brings yet more traffic and bustle to my neighborhood.

 

Post #415: Survey

The Town would like to survey Vienna residents to get their opinion about key aspects of Maple Avenue development.   See the relevant section of Post #413 for the writeup of that.  I applaud the fact that the Town is going to do such a survey.

But the Town is just asking for trouble in how they have chosen to go about that.  It’s a real drag to have to say that.  But what I’m going to say here needs to be said, by somebody.  Even though people are not going to like it, and I will be accused of being a mean person for saying it.

Well, tough.

Continue reading Post #415: Survey

Post #413: The 10/9/2019 Town Council work session on rewriting MAC

Vienna Town Council spent about three hours discussing changes to MAC zoning last night.

Only a handful of people were in the audience, which is a pity, because this meeting was well worth attending.  It was quite a meeting.  And I mean that mostly in a good way.  Lots of things were discussed.   I learned a lot (even after I have been following this for more than a year.)

I’m going to give a review of the issues that came up, and then do a series of posts on individual issues separately.  But I’m not going to do a blow-by-blow analysis of the entire three hour meeting.  It’s just too long.  Instead, I summarize the major issues below.  In many cases, the same issue was discussed several times over the course of the meeting, so this is my attempt to gather the bits and pieces of discussion in one place.

This meeting is one that may be worth downloading and listening to.  You may download my audio recording (.mp3) from this Google Drive link.  (The file is fairly large, but you can listen to it on Google Drive without downloading).  Or you can wait a day or two, and the Town will post a much-higher-quality audio recording in the archives section, at the bottom of this web pageContinue reading Post #413: The 10/9/2019 Town Council work session on rewriting MAC

Post #410: Public meetings this week related to MAC zoning

There appears to be just one public meeting this week relevant to MAC zoning.

Wednesday 10/9/2019 at 7:30 PM in Town Hall, Town Council will have a work session on revising the Town’s zoning statutes, including both MAC and other commercial zones.

The work session materials can be found here:

https://vienna-va.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4154420&GUID=92E12C5A-91A8-4BB6-90A0-18379C40EE4E&Options=&Search=

Please note that the Town does not broadcast work sessions, but it now typically makes audio recordings of those meetings available after-the-fact, at the bottom of this page on the Town of Vienna website:

https://www.viennava.gov/index.aspx?NID=567

The Town reserves the right to change or cancel meetings on short notice, so check the Town’s general calendar before you go, at this URL:
https://www.viennava.gov/Calendar.aspx?NID=1&FID=220

 

Post #409: MAC moratorium extension schedule.

I thought it might be worth the time to write down the schedule for extending the MAC moratorium.  I think it looks like this:

  • 10/7/2019 — today, as of the time this was written
  • 10/17/2019 — last possible date to begin advertising the required Planning Commission public hearing.
  • 10/22/2019 — last possible date to begin advertising the required Town Council public hearing.
  • 10/30/2019 — Planning Commission public hearing.
  • 11/4/2019 — Town Council public hearing.
  • 11/15/2019 — Current end of the MAC moratorium.

Detail follows, in reverse chronological order.

As of now, the MAC moratorium ends on 11/15/2019. 

At the September 16, 2019 Town Council meeting, the Town Council set a public hearing on 11/4/2019, for extending that.  Meeting materials from the September 16, 2019 meeting can be found here.

When the Town originally set the moratorium, for whatever reason, they let 10 days elapse between their vote, and when the moratorium took place.  That lag is what got us both the Sunrise and 380 Maple West proposals.  But when they extended the moratorium the first time, there appears to have been no such lag.

That’s a public hearing relating to zoning, so the Town has to adhere to this schedule (below) for publicizing it ahead of time.  I calculate that the latest date at which they can begin advertising that meeting is 13 days before.  So the advertisement for the meeting has to be published no later than 10/22/2019-ish.

Per Town code, Sec. 18-246 " ...  Notice of public hearings before the commission shall be given by publishing the time, place and notice of the hearing once a week for two successive weeks in a newspaper having a paid general circulation in the Town. The public hearing shall be held not less than five nor more than 21 days after final publication. "

But before the Town Council discusses it, the Planning Commission must also hold a public hearing.  Formally, the Planning Commission then passes its recommendation on to the Town Council.  The only scheduled meeting of the Planning Commission is 10/30/2019.

They too must publish notice.  Again, I make out the last possible date for publishing notice of the public meeting to be 10/17/2019-ish.

When those hearings are advertised, notice of that should appear on the Town’s webpage for public hearings. 

Post #408: Toward a cost per car-trip avoided and cost per traffic-minute avoided.

Any post that starts with “Toward” isn’t going to get you to your destination.  So you are forewarned:  This is just the first of two posts.

Based on everything I’ve seen so far, it’s difficult and expensive to get cars off of Maple Avenue.  That’s really the genesis of this post.  If you don’t believe that, you could start with Post #331, no magic bullets for Maple Avenue traffic.  You could skim my various analyses of the Town’s recent traffic study (search “multimodal”).  Read my idea about behavioral modification to keep cars off the road.  Maybe toss in analysis of Capital Bikeshare, and end with analysis of microtransit.  See how hard it will be to use rental electric scooters effectively in Vienna.  Or you could just re-read the first sentence of this paragraph and say, yeah, sounds about right.

I’m using this post to organize my thinking before the Town Council’s next round of discussions about Maple Avenue.  But this ended up being too long, so I’m splitting it into two posts.

The point of this first post is that, ideally, the Town should come up with a way fully to offset the additional traffic that Maple Avenue redevelopment will cause.  That should be part of the overall MAC plan.  My next post will belabor that by talking about putting all the options into a single “cost effectiveness” framework.  Continue reading Post #408: Toward a cost per car-trip avoided and cost per traffic-minute avoided.

Post #407: Microtransit

This was discussed for about an hour, at the end the 9/30/2019 Town Council meeting.  This is my brief review, based on watching the video recording.  There was a presentation, with materials provided to Town Council members, but those materials are not posted on the Town website.

The Director of Public Works provided a brief presentation on mictrotransit.  More or less, microtransit is an Uber-like service using small buses or vans.

As with Uber, you would use a smartphone app to call up a ride.

Unlike Uber, though:

  • This would not be one-passenger-at-a-time transport.  It’s more akin to Uberpool.
  • It would not come directly to your door.
  • Software would aggregate calls for transport, for all individuals near you who requested a ride around the time you did.
  • You would be given a pickup time at a “virtual bus stop” (a street corner a block or two from your house)
  • All the people who wanted rides would meet at that “virtual bus stop”.
  • In theory, this provides for greater efficiency.
  • Origin and destination of your trip would be in and around Vienna (e.g., as far as the Metro station).
  • The transport vehicle would likely be a van or small bus.
  • It should be cheaper than Uber, possibly a few dollars, possibly free.
  • It would be subsidized by tax dollars, just like other forms of public transit.

Because this is a new concept, there is not much data yet to assess how well microtransit works, or in what situations it works.  The Director of Public Works mentioned pilot projects that are starting in targeted areas of Washington DC, Montgomery County, MD, and Fredericksburg, VA.

Several tax- or toll-funded organizations were mentioned as possible sources of (most of) the money needed to do this, at least initially.   Possible funding sources included the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission (NVTC), Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transit (DRPT), and the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG).

Eventually, Vienna would have to pay the cost of running this.  The very approximate estimate for having a third party provide turn-key operation of a system like this, for an area the size of Vienna, was given as $200,000 to $400,000 per year.  (It was not clear if that was gross cost, or net cost after offsetting revenues from fares).  Councilman Majdi noted that the cost would depend strongly on what you ask for — 24/7 on-demand service anywhere in Town, say, versus a few limited routes offered for a more limited time period.

There was a lengthy comment period, and a motion (subsequently withdrawn) to get staff started on applying for grants.  Comments were mostly about how to go about getting seed money (grant funding), and putting this in the context of the other transportation recommendations from the Town’s multimodal transportation study (see Post #359, Post #362, Post #358 ).

In the end, Councilman Noble’s view won out that it would make more sense to see what Kimley-Horn recommends in terms of the overall transit picture, and then (if warranted) pursue a package of options, rather than begin to look at this option in isolation.  At some point in the near future, Kimley-Horn will present the findings of the Town’s “multimodal” transportation study in front of Town Council.

A few comments and one calculation.

In a nutshell, microtransit is a cheaper version of Uberpool, using a few vans instead of many cars, without door-to-door service, subsidized by taxes or tolls. 

Councilmember Noble pointed out that the key to any of this is demand.  Will people demand (use) this service, enough to justify the expense?  Could this take away demand for the existing bus service in and around Vienna (Post #225)?  I think that’s the key issue, and one where Town Council would be well-advised to get their hands on whatever hard data is available before making a commitment.  (See Uber/Lyft suggestion below.)  I have already noted that the stunningly nice local Connector bus service goes largely unused (Post #225).

I will take issue with a statement by Councilmember Patel, that this would reduce our carbon footprint.  I think that’s plausible, but not proven, and would certainly depend on the demand.  A typical vehicle for this type of service (Sprinter van) gets around 17 MPG.  And as I learned with my analysis of electric scooters, a lot of things can affect carbon footprint that would surprise you (last section, Post #338).  In particular, short-range transport may function more as a faster substitute for walking and biking, rather than passenger car trips.  The substitution of motorized transport for walking or biking will increase carbon footprint.

It’s also worthwhile to note that traditional citybus service is only modestly better than the average new car, due to generally low load factors.  For example, US city buses on average emit 300 grams C02 per passenger mile, not hugely different from the average 360 grams emitted by the average new US passenger car (Wikipedia reference is here).  Both of those are worse than a solo driver in an efficient vehicle.  For example, a solo driver in a new Prius (at 54 mpg) emits about 165 grams per mile.  (These figures are for fuel only and are not life-cycle energy costs for the vehicles.)  For a Sprinter van, you’d need three passengers at all times to get the same fuel efficient per passenger mile as a solo driver in a Prius.

Now I’m going to do some simple calculations.  If this service will actually cost $400,000 per year, how many Uber trips could that buy, in and around the Town of Vienna?

Here’s what it costs to go from the center of Vienna to the Vienna Metro.  This probably longer than the median trip within the Town of Vienna.  So, at $7 per trip, that’s likely an over-estimate of the typical Uber fare within the proposed mictrotransit service area.

The answer is ($400,000/$7 =) ~57,000 Uber trips. 

If the microtransit runs 365 days per year, 8 hours per day, then at what point will microtransit make more than 57,000 trips per year.  Answer:  about 20 trips per hour, every hour, 8 hours per day, 365 days per year.

Finally, just for fun, how does that 57,000 trips compare to the number of trips on Maple Avenue?  (Fully realizing that a) not every microtransit trip would involve Maple, and b) the van itself would be a vehicle on Maple, so the reduction in vehicles on Maple would be less than 57,000 in any case.)  Total annual transports on Maple amount to (33,000 cars/day x 365 days = ) about 12 million vehicle trips per year.  So the theoretical break-even-vs-Uber 57,000 would amount to 0.4% of Maple Avenue traffic.

(Just to emphasize that I have not run this into the ground, note that the  calculation above assumes that the Town would pay the full Uber fare for you.  But if the Town just goes halfsies with you, then that $400K cost of microtransit would subsidize 114,000 half-price Uber rides.  And yeah, the money isn’t the only thing at issue here.  And Uber likely increases traffic congestion.  But still, that’s a lot of cheap rides.)

None of this is to say “don’t do this”.  All of this is to say, do some arithmetic and think hard before committing the Town to do this.  Even if, at first, we’re going to spending Somebody Else’s Money.

Fully acknowledging that we are spending Somebody Else’s Money, what we’re talking about is a service that is, for all intents and purposes, an inconvenient form of Uberpool.  (Albeit cheaper).  By far, the first thing I would want to know is how many transports Uber and Lyft provide annually, in and around Vienna.  (Uber does make such data available to city governments, but Vienna is just outside the zone for which data are publicly available for the DC area.)  If it isn’t on-order-of 57,000 and up, … the Town really needs to think hard about this.

Finally, just by way of illustration of what can happen if ridership does not materialize, I’ll point you to the Tyson’s Capital Bikeshare racks.  The extremely low ridership results in a $25 per-one-mile-bike-trip average cost.  See this post for calculation.

Finally (and I really mean it this time), if you think I’m kidding about high average cost if ridership does not materialize, read this, and find this line:  ” … for a jaw-dropping subsidy of more than $1,000 per ride.

But who am I kidding?  Some days, I just get tired of talking to myself.  As long as it’s Somebody Else’s Money, I doubt that stories of even truly spectacular failures, as above, will dissuade anyone.