Post #383: It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future

I’m going to attribute the title of this post to Yogi Berra.  And while my last post was a lament for the things I think the Town ought to ask, this one is my prediction of what they’re actually going to do.

The point of this post is to predict what the zoning will look like for Maple Avenue, once the Town Council’s deliberations are finished five months from now, in February 2020.  (Or at least, scheduled to finish.)  And, by inference, what Maple will look like in the long run.

This post is just a plain statement of what I think we’ll get.  A subsequent post will explain why I think we’re going to get that.

Anyway, let’s face the facts.  Allowing just five months to redo the zoning, within a cumbersome legal and governmental framework, strongly limits what you can do and what you can consider.  Thus, once you’ve set that at the goal, you have a good idea of where this is going to end up.  That’s based on what’s on the table now, recent history, and some understand of the players.

Just as a hint, the original title of my last post was “why I despair”.  So if you expect something chipper and upbeat here, you’ve come to the wrong place.


But first, one more for the obits

I have one more item to add to the obits of the prior post.  Of all the things I could have added to that last posting, but forgot to, I want to mention “produce a drawing of what one whole block of Maple would look like, under MAC redevelopment”.  That came up at one of the recent meetings.  Staff were going to look into doing that.  But some Town Council members didn’t want anyone to do that.  So staff didn’t bother.  And it was forgotten.

The bottom line is that they Town is not going to commission any drawing of what the MAC build-out might look like.  Which is not a surprise, as that is just one more in the list of incredibly reasonable questions the Town might try to answer before plowing ahead.  But won’t.   Most of which I listed in my just-prior “obits” post.

A few pictures of a block-level build-out would be useful, if for no other reason than to see what it will look like when two abutting MAC developments are built  just off the common lot line, as the law allows.  But it’s obvious by now that this request — “may we please have even one image of what Maple might look like” — ain’t gonna happen.

As an economist, I believe in “revealed preference”.  That is, what you do reveals what you actually prefer.   So in this case, I infer that Town Council would rather buy a pig in a poke than let anyone have any image whatsoever of what they are actually voting for.  Fully admitting that (see post title), I just shake my head about that whenever I think about it.  The full extent of our forward-looking planning is going to be, more or less, “oh, just surprise us.”

So, because we won’t hire a professional to try to give you a picture of the future, I figure, what the hey, I might as well give it a shot — let me tell you what I think we’re going to get, to be decided by our Town staff Council over the next five months.  Let me first outline what, then why.

Continue reading Post #383: It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future

Post #382: An obituary for questions that will not be answered.

How is the Town going about rewriting its zoning laws, including MAC zoning?  Is this process likely to have a good outcome?

I’ve written four throwaway pieces on issues that I thought needed to be addressed as the Town moves forward on Maple Avenue redevelopment.  But at this point, I fully realize that I’m just talking to myself.  The Town is scheduled to rewrite its entire commercial zoning code, including MAC, finishing about five months from now, in February 2020.  So, more-or-less none of what I’m going to write below is going to be addressed.  That said, I’m going to roll up everything of value from the prior posts, listed below.  And then, at that point, I don’t think I have anything left to say.

  • Post #304, Where do we go from here, Part I.
  • Post #306, Where do we go from here, Part II, Falls Church
  • Post #322:  Moving forward (where do we go from here, Part 3).
  • Post #327:  Some basic questions to ask before modifying MAC zoning.

In effect, this posting is my obituary for all the questions that aren’t going to be answered, and all the things that aren’t going to be done.  As the Town proceeds to rewrite its entire commercial zoning code.

Now, that’s kind of a cheap shot — “Here’s what needs to be asked” — except for the fact that I’ve already given my best answer for what to do.  That answer aimed to address what I measured or perceive to be the main concerns of Vienna citizens.  As outlines in Post 322 above, my solution would be:

  1. Three story buildings.
  2. True open space requirements.
  3. Concrete, quantifiable changes to offset increased traffic.

Great.  Opinions are like bellybuttons, as the clean version of that phrase goes.   Or maybe, “that and $0.50 will get you a phone call.”   It’s great to toss out some sketchy off-the-cuff answer.  But the real questions are, what is the Town government capable of doing?  And then, what is the Town actually going to do? Continue reading Post #382: An obituary for questions that will not be answered.

Post #381: Illegal meetings by Town of Vienna officials — withdrawn

I have been advised by Councilman Noble that meetings of the MAC Ad Hoc committee were,  in fact, duly advertised and open to the public in some manner.  I just missed that.  I apologize to the Town of Vienna for this posting.  I was wrong.

Usually, when I make a mistake, I just strike through the original text.  In this case, let me just erase it.  So the story is that I accused the Town of violating FOIA because they did not hold open public meetings for the committee that drafted the amendments to MAC.  The Town posted notice, on its calendar, for exactly two meetings of this Ad Hoc Committee.  I’ll assume that’s all there were and leave it at that.  I was incorrect and I apologize.

 

 

 

 

Post #380: Sidewalk alignment and avoiding a waste of space

I want to make two simple points in this posting.

First, when I said the MAC sidewalks would not align with existing sidewalks, I was wrong.  They will, because the proposed 6′ buffer between the road and sidewalk, under MAC, is not new.  For almost all of Maple, it just matches what we already have.

Second,  if we are determined to have a 28′ wide sidewalk along Maple, my suggestion is not to waste it on outdoor seating that isn’t going to be used.  Maybe set it up to carry a “shared use trail” (a.k.a., a bike path) and integrate that with an eventual multimodal transit plan.

The upshot of that second point is that instead of ignoring the fact that Maple Avenue is an unpleasant transit corridor now, due to the traffic, it might be more efficient to acknowledge that and run with it.  It’s a traffic corridor.  Rather perfuming the pig, it might make more sense to focus on making it a better traffic corridor.

Continue reading Post #380: Sidewalk alignment and avoiding a waste of space

Post #378: Town Council work session 9/9/2019, Part 1

My wife and I attended last night’s Town Council work session, along with about (best guess) 40 other audience members.  I’m going to break my review of that into two separate posts:  This post will be a timely overview.  Other posts may go into more detail.

It’s almost not worth posting my audio file, because microphone discipline was poor.  FWIW:  Download the audio (.mp3) at this Google Drive link, and download the corresponding .xls index file (my notes at to what was said when) at this Google Drive link.

The work session covered four topics.  You can find the meeting materials at this location.  Click links below to get to a brief writeup of the four topics.

I didn’t stay for the last one, so I have little to say for that one until I listen to the Town’s audio recording.  An overview of the others follows.


Continue reading Post #378: Town Council work session 9/9/2019, Part 1

Post #377: Rental scooters, the Town begins to get ready.

For background on the rental scooter issue, see these posts:  Post #338, Post #330.

In a nutshell, due to a change in Commonwealth law, the Town needs to have some sort of program in place to regulate the use of rental scooters and bikes.  If not, then on 1/1/2020, the rental and use of such devices is deemed legal, including, if not explicitly barred, use on the sidewalk.  We probably don’t want that, based on the problems reported in cities that underwent unregulated use of rental “shared mobility devices” (see examples in Post #289).

The Town will begin discussion of this issue at the 9/9/2019 Town Council work session.  You can find the relevant meeting materials on this web page.

To cut to the chase:  My best guess is that the Town is developing a pro-forma way to satisfy Virginia statute.  We may or may not attract any dockless scooter or ebike rental operators to Vienna.

Continue reading Post #377: Rental scooters, the Town begins to get ready.

Post #376: MAC-related public meetings this week.

There is one public meetings this week relevant to MAC zoning.

Monday, 9/9/2019 at 7:30 PM in Town Hall, the first item in the Town Council work session will be discussion of changing the proffers for the recently approved 380 Maple West (37 condos plus retail, corner of Wade Hampton and Maple) to allow the building to be used for some other purpose.     

The meeting materials for that portion of the meeting are here:

https://vienna-va.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4124947&GUID=48E2E0E1-5C96-4D8E-8F20-7356781D9682&Options=&Search=

You can see my guesses as to what’s going on in Post #375.

At that meeting, they will also discuss draft changes to the commercial zoning and MAC zoning codes.  Materials for that are given here:

https://vienna-va.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4124946&GUID=E124EC89-7A23-4EE3-A207-328A8712F4AA&Options=&Search=

 

Post #375: Did I say condos? Just kidding. I meant assisted living.

Sometimes the goings-on in Vienna are just stranger than you can imagine.  So I don’t quite know what to call this one.  Musical chairs?  Bait and switch, the sequel?

Recall that the Town approved a building with 37 condos plus retail at 380 Maple West (corner of Wade Hampton and Maple).

Well, guess again.  Looks like the 380 Maple West developer may just flip the property, and hand it off to become an assisted living facility.  And as part of that, they’ll partially re-open the MAC zoning that had been approved, to allow the builder to “amend the proffers”.

I can’t make up stuff like that.  You can see the (somewhat cryptic) meeting materials here on the Town’s website, and you can see a more detailed writeup on Vienna Citizens for Responsible Development Facebook site.

This possibility isn’t even part of Town of Vienna code.  The Town had to cite a section of  Commonwealth of Virginia statute to justify it.


Say what?

I can only speculate as to what this is about.

Sunrise?  Plausibly, if the assisted living provider is Sunrise, this is Vienna’s way of getting rid of the lawsuit that Sunrise filed against it (Post #342).  As of yesterday, Sunrise’s lawyers may have been unaware of this development, so it is far from clear that Sunrise is, in fact, involved.

Edit:  In addition, this possibility was raised by the developer, to some of the neighbors, well before Sunrise was turned down.  Given Sunrise’s investment in its own proposal at Maple and Center, it seems unlikely that they would be hedging their bets.  Particularly as this property is almost directly across the street from  …

Kensington?  Alternatively, Kensington Assisted Living might be involved here.  Kensington was well underway in developing a proposal for an assisted living facility at the empty BB&T bank building property.  That is virtually across the street from 380 Maple West.  Because I have never seen two competing assisted living facilities across the street from one another, I believe that converting 380 Maple West to assisted living effectively bars Kensington from developing the BB&T bank property.

So … it’s hard to say.  If the assisted living provider in question is Sunrise, then this quashes the Sunrise lawsuit.  But that also materially harms Sunrise’s most direct local competitor, and the owner of the BB&T property.

On the other hand, if the assisted living provider is Kensington, then the Town should, at least in theory, have to explain why it allowed one competitor but denied another, as part of the Sunrise lawsuit.  (Or, possibly, the Town would use this in its defense.   They could claim that approval of this assisted living proves that they were not biased against having old people in the heart of the MAC zone.  So, possibly, this now becomes part of their lawsuit defense?)

On yet a third hand, dissing Sunrise might be intentional.  As an extra bonus for the Town, they effectively get to thumb their noses at Sunrise, as a punishment for Sunrise daring to sue.  And use the fact that they are allowing their competitors into Vienna in their defense against the Sunrise lawsuit.

Or possibly the Town is merely the passive player here, and this is just a by-product of the developer’s selling the right to build to the highest bidder.  Whatever the real motivator, the story has to be told such that, somehow, out of thin air, the developer wants to flip to the property to this new use.  If the Town of Vienna itself were shown to have acted with favoritism toward one of two competitors, they should rightly be sued by the other one.

As it stands, to do this, the Town is going to have to make up a whole bunch of nonsense about why Sunrise was completely inappropriate in the heart of downtown, but fill-in-the-blank is a great fit for a section of Maple where (e.g.) you have to walk a quarter-mile merely to be able to get to the restaurant across the street.

Trying to be an economist for a moment, consider the macroeconomic context. We are way overdue for a recession. The developer faces considerable uncertainty as to when, exactly, the project will be finished and the condos are on the market.  Condos are more sensitive to economic dips than other property. But health care is traditionally thought to be recession-proof. So this could be a way of transferring the right to build from weak hands (individual builder, condos) to strong hands (national chain, assisted living) in anticipation of a general economic slowdown.  And the current owner of those rights likely will make a profit for his trouble.

So, absent better information, either of two scenarios would fit.  This could be the Town’s way of sidestepping the Sunrise lawsuit.  (In which case, keep an eye out to see what favors the Town will use to repay the developer.)  Yet, Sunrise’s lawyers seemed to be unaware of this development.  Or, maybe it’s just business as usual, and the developer is selling the building rights to the highest bidder.  Kensington was definitely interested in that neighborhood.  In which case, I would think it would make it harder for the Town to defend the Sunrise denial in court.  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.


Care to speak up again?

First, at the time the 380 development was passed, several citizens got up and testified in favor of it.   What a wonderful thing this was.  How this was exactly what the Town needed here.  How this new retail would revitalize this section of town.  How this building should be approved because Vienna desperately needs single-floor living for the elderly.  And so on.

Wonder if we’re going to hear back from them, now that the actual building will have nothing whatsoever to do with what they so strongly defended?  I bet not.

Second, when some Town council members wanted to rescind the original approval, many parties, including the local newspaper, loudly cried “foul”.  A deal’s a deal.  You can’t go back on that.  The very fabric of government would unravel if you could simply undo a deal at will.

Wonder if we’re going to hear from them again, now that the deal is going to change?  I’d bet not.


How can they do that (physically, I mean)?

And by this I mean, how can they take that physical building, as approved, and make an efficient assisted living out of it?  Honestly, for the life of me, I can’t see how they can do that.  So I have to wonder, how much is that building going to have to change, to do this?  Is the entire MAC process that much of a sham, that, after the fact, they can just completely reconfigure the agreed-upon building.  If so, what on earth are we actually going to get at 444 Maple West?

Just off the top of my head, and keeping in mind that Sunrise appears to be shooting for a roughly 100 bed facility as their minimum efficient scale (see Post #205), I’m going to discuss what Sunrise would probably want to do to the building to make it work as an assisted living facility.  So this is structured as if Sunrise were known to be the assisted living provider in question.

The 380 building has too much ground-floor space devoted to parking and retail, relative to what Sunrise needed. Sunrise needed that space for its own common areas, not for parking or retail. But I thought the parking was part of the specification of the building. Can Sunrise just cut that out, and reconfigure the ground floor, as they see fit? So totally change the amount of, location of, and access to the parking, with no public review? Just drop most of the retail? Really? Then what the heck was all that MAC nonsense about in the first place.

Ambulance access.  Recall all the discussion that went on w/r/t/ dedicated ambulance parking and loading at the Maple and Center facility? All the fuss and bother. Made them put in a dedicated space, got all up in their grille about not blocking Maple, and so on. Is that all just moot now? Whatever-the-heck Sunrise wants to do at this location, hey, that’s fair? That can’t be true.

Ambulance nuisance.  The original Sunrise location was not adjacent to a residential area.  Here, does this mean that ambulances would use Glen/Roland to access that building? If so, that’s a big deal to this neighborhood. (Shortest land route from VVFD to that building appears to be Center/Locust/Courthouse/Glenn/Wade Hampton, but the ambulances may be given instructions to stay on the main routes as long as possible.

Even if not, the noise of the siren alone is a big deal to the neighborhood. They’re going to put that here, with zero public comment? Again, what on earth were those MAC public hearings about, then?

Room size versus hallway width.  Assisted living facilities typically have tiny, hotel-sized rooms, linked by broad corridors, to large commons areas. Here, the rooms are too big, the corridors are (I would bet) far too narrow to pass building code for this sort of facility, and it has no common areas at all (other than the shops on the first floor, which are too small to be useful).

Dementia floor.  This building lacks a secure, internal green space for the dementia floor. It lacks all the dedicated common facilities that a dementia floor must have (e.g., its own dining room). I think the 380 building only has one elevator, but the Sunrise needs two, one of which is dedicated to the dementia floor.

Conditional use permit.  As I understand it, Sunrise got a conditional use permit (pending MAC approval) for the use of the land at Maple and Center.  But, the Town’s notice does not even mention the need to get a different conditional use permit, for use of the land at 380 Maple West.  Did they just not bother to mention that, or is the case that if you get such a permit for anywhere in Vienna, you can transfer it as you see fit?  That makes no sense.  So, doesn’t this have to go before the Board of Zoning Appeals?

I just can’t see how this can work, as described. The building as-is doesn’t work, as I see it.  Which means they pretty much have to design a new building.  Can they just do that?  I.e., once approved, can they just swap in a materially different building, for a completely different use, and say, eh, close enough?  If so, what’s the point of those MAC public hearings?

And I will just point, once again, to 444 Maple West.  If this flies, does anybody really know what we’re actually going to get at that location?  Seems like, if this is acceptable, what you actually get with MAC is the right to build … something.  To be determined.

 

Post #374: Behavioral modification for Maple Avenue traffic

 

(Photograph taken from the website of the Ohio Department of Transportation).

The gist of this post is the following:  Maybe we could reduce some of the peak-period congestion on Maple by changing driving behavior.  First, maybe  dynamic messaging signs could “push” the message to drivers that they might be better off going around Vienna rather than going through it, under certain traffic conditions.   Second, possibly, through use of traffic cams and dedicated smart phone apps, we could “push” a message to Town residents to avoid doing their shopping during peak weekend traffic periods.

This is such an oddball idea, and one with so little available data, and so little prior discussion that I have seen, that I’m just going to describe what I mean, and leave it at that for now.  Obviously, that Town would have to make the investment to implement either of these.

Continue reading Post #374: Behavioral modification for Maple Avenue traffic