The U.S. is now 60% below the 1/8/20201 peak, in terms of new COVID-19 cases/ 100,000 / day.
The rate of decline is not getting any faster. But it’s not getting visibly slower either. (Note: Final part-week data were extrapolated to a full week.)
| Period | Weekly rate of change, new cases |
| Peak to Feb 1 | -17% |
| Feb 1 – Feb 8 | -24% |
| Feb 8 – Feb 11 | -19% |
Several states showed little upticks in new case counts, including North Dakota. No state appears to be following North Dakota’s rapid decline.
It’s still too soon to be looking for the “explosion” of new cases following Super Bowl Sunday. At the earliest, they should start showing up late next week.
