Starting 1/21/2021, the trend went from strongly downward to essentially flat. Some part of that was due to the loss-and-recovery of data reporting in Texas and similar areas. The rest is unexplained. Continue reading Post #1037: Trend through end of February 2021: flat.
Today is probably the last time I’ll show the trends with and without Texas (and LA and AR). At this point, the (seven-day moving average of) Texas data reporting appears to have recovered fully, and it’s only distorting the historical data.
If you include Texas (and LA and AR), cases are rising at a rate of about 4%/week starting 2/21/2021. But that reflects the data reporting outage in Texas (and surrounding areas) due to the mid-February cold wave. And then the recovery from that outage.
If you exclude TX, LA, AR, you find that cases have been falling about 4%week, starting 2/21/2021. That’s almost certainly a more accurate picture of the underlying trend. Continue reading Post #1036, new COVID-19 cases trending down slowly, ex-Texas
It’s about time to revisit herd immunity. So far, all I’ve been able to say, from the data, is that we’re not there yet. (Duh.)
I’m going to start off this next set of posts by explaining why the current vaccinations don’t matter (much, yet) in terms of getting individual states or the U.S. as a whole to the herd immunity level. Continue reading Post #1035: Herd immunity, part 1: Vaccines don’t matter, much, yet
Texas and some nearby states had severe difficulties in processing their COVID-19 case counts during the mid-February winter weather event. That, combined with the use of seven day moving average data, means that their case counts are only now returning to normal. You can see that reflected in the gray line on the first graph below, for the U.S. South Central states. Including that data reporting effect makes it appear that new COVID cases are on the rise.
But excluding Texas (and Louisiana and Arkansas), cases are flat-to-down. There’s still a sharp inflection point at 2/21/2021. The decline in daily new case counts ceased at that point. But so far, that’s been replaced with more-or-less stable new case counts. Continue reading Post #1034: Trend to 2/26/2021, flat ex-Texas
Or who can be bothered to look at simple data analyses before holding a press conference?
What sets me off today is this CNBC article in which the U.S. CDC director tells a story about the recent bottoming of the third U.S. wave of COVID. Apparently the spread of the U.K. variant is to blame, because, at least according to this article, that now accounts for 10% of cases. Continue reading Post #1033: Will we ever get public health officials who can do simple arithmetic?
I tried to do a quick comparison of the COVID-19 testing rate on the William and Mary campus relative to the testing rate in Virginia. The ultimate goal of this is to (gu)esstimate the effect that more intensive testing of the W&M student body has had on the count of COVID-19 cases discovered.
Turns out, that’s a very hard thing to do, for a lot of different reasons. That’s not going to stop me from giving an estimate. But it does stop me from giving good estimate.
Best guess, the mandatory testing regimen at W&M ought to identify about three times as many cases as the voluntary, symptom-driven testing found in the community. The fact that it does not — that we don’t see a case count that is three times the community rate — probably reflects the self-selection of the W&M student body, and the fact that their pre-campus COVID-19 infection risk is (probably) much lower than that of the average 21-to-30-year-old Virginia resident.
For me, the bottom line remains the same: I want to see W&M improve, relative to that community benchmark, as the semester progresses. That’s how I’ll feel comfortable that W&M is controlling the spread of COVID-19 on campus. Continue reading Post #1032: William and Mary COVID-19 testing rate.
There’s nothing new to report. The daily new case rate is now up a little bit, relative to what might turn out to be the end of the U.S. third wave on 2/21/2021. Continue reading Post #1031: Trend to 2/25/2021, losing ground.
This is the followup to Post #1023, my latest N95 mask purchase.
After looking over what was routinely available, my most recent purchase of N95 masks was 10 of these foldable Magid N95s, from Amazon. The reasoning was pretty much the same as for my last purchase. These are certified for industrial use, they are not certified for medical use, and they are an odd, niche style. It doesn’t seem like it would be worth anyone’s while to counterfeit them. Continue reading Post #1030: Magid N95 respirator, a flat-fold mask with excellent face seal
Source: Calculated from NY Times Github COVID-19 data repository, data reported through 2/24/2021. Areas are defined as the counties currently within the Tampa/St. Petersburg and Kansas City KS/MO MSAs.
So far, I have found exactly one news article that actually followed up on the dire threat of a post-Super-Bowl explosion of cases. That one, lonely piece of reporting was from a TV station in the Tampa Bay area. Their conclusion is that, no, there was no uptick in cases following the Super Bowl. At least, not in the Tampa Bay area. Continue reading Post #1029: Post Super Bowl non-explosion of cases
The decline in new cases that begin around 1/8/2021 seems to be flattening out. Continue reading Post #1028: Trends to 2/24/2021