Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 3/18/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
The U.S. now stands at 9.4 new COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day, down 17% in the past week.
By eye, it looks like we’ve reached the end of the down-slope of our Omicron wave. Or very nearly.
That’s the way it looks both on the short-term graph above, and on the whole-pandemic graph below:
If so, that’s a bit over eight weeks from peak to trough on the U.S. Omicron wave. That compares reasonably well to (e.g.) the U.K. experience of just over seen weeks, peak to trough.
Next?
Source: Our World in Data, underlying data are from Johns Hopkins.
The question of the moment remains, what happens next? Many — but not all — of the wealthy industrialized nations are seeing an increase in new cases. That includes the U.K., Australia and New Zealand, much of Europe, South Korea and China. (But Japan remains firmly on the downslope of its Omicron wave.)
By contrast, Canada’s new case count is steady, and the U.S. new case count has only now settled to an apparent low. Mexico seems to have gotten over its Omicron wave without a rebound in the case count. Is the North American experience unique, or will we follow a path more like that of the U.K.?
It’s tough to see much rhyme or reason on the world map above. You have heavily-hit countries in both hemispheres, suggesting that weather is not a principal driver at the moment. You’ve got a mix of dark-and-light countries across mask-wearing Asia. Africa as a whole is not heavily involved, but it’s more-or-less been like that since the beginning.
Category 1: Few prior infections. A few countries have largely avoided COVID-19 up to now, but are being heavily affected by Omicron, with no obvious end in sight. I’d place Korea and New Zealand into that group. Presumably, the lack of a large number of prior infections in those countries means a lower overall population immunity level. Plausibly Australia belongs there as well, but I’m putting them in the Omicron-rebound group below.
Source: Our World in Data, underlying data are from Johns Hopkins.
Category 2: Now rebounding into a second Omicron wave. Then there’s the U.K. and a bunch of other countries that are following a similar path. They had their Omicron wave, and now they’re coming back for a second round of it. To the extent that the U.S. news media need a scary story to tell, those stand as ready examples.
Source: Our World in Data, underlying data are from Johns Hopkins.
Category 3: Had their Omicron wave, no rebound. There are plenty of examples of countries that, so far, appear to be getting over their Omicron wave without a rebound. These are the ones that you’ll never see news stories about. (In hindsight, India and Mexico should also be on the no-rebound chart).
Source: Our World in Data, underlying data are from Johns Hopkins.
There’s a fourth category for countries that never had many reported cases, and still don’t. Just for perspective, here’s China versus the U.S.
Source: Our World in Data, underlying data are from Johns Hopkins.
And then there’s North America. So far, we’re all in the no-rebound category.
Source: Our World in Data, underlying data are from Johns Hopkins.
My fear, of course, is that this is all just a matter of timing. What I’ve identified as the “no rebound” nations may well turn out to be the “no rebound yet” nations. Nothing to do about that but wait and see.
