Source: Calculated from W&M COVID-19 dashboard, accessed 5/2/2022.
The most recent count of new cases from W&M works out to just under 140 new COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day. There has been no corresponding uptick in cases in the Virginia 18-24 population as a whole.
We’re now about two weeks away from graduation. It will be interesting to see how the current outbreak evolves. Even if this isn’t particularly dangerous for the young, you’re about to have the campus flooded with crowds of their parents, some of whom are likely to be in higher-risk categories. In that context, this is an unfortunate turn of events.
Booster or not?
Separately, I’ve been strategizing over when to get my second booster. I’m thinking, in light of this, maybe now wouldn’t be too bad a time. It’s tough to say, particularly given that a lot of the W&M graduation events will be held outdoors, where risks of disease spread are inherently low.
The first issue with a booster shot is that you only get one. As of today, there’s no approved third booster shot. Best not to waste it.
The second issue is that protection against any infection is short-lived (but protection against severe infection remains quite long-lived). You get maybe a couple of months of enhanced antibody levels that will reduce your likelihood of any infection. Then those return to baseline. That’s why the CDC currently shows that those with booster shots are about half as likely to have some COVID-19 infection, but only about 5% as likely to die from COVID, compared to the unvaccinated.
Source: CDC COVID data tracker, accessed 5/2/2022.
Given the low risk of transmission in the community, I’ve been saving mine. I figure it would be smarter to get one this fall, in anticipation of a likely winter flu-and-COVID season.
Now I’m looking at two days of various graduation ceremonies at William and Mary, hanging out with a maskless crowd of students who are in the middle of a COVID-19 outbreak.
Hmm. Vax up now, or save it for the winter? The booster is free, harmless, and helpful, of course I’m going to get it. It’s just a matter of when.
Well, whatever I do, I’d better to it soon. It takes a couple of weeks for antibody levels to rise after those vaccine shots.
