The COVD-19 new case rate is unchanged at 33 new cases per 100K population per day, pretty much the same as it was three weeks ago.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 6/11/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
I can look back to my May 25 posting and see that my best guess, at that time, is that we were then three weeks from the peak of this wave. That was based on the behavior of the Northeast region, which led the nation by three weeks and had just peaked at that time.
From three weeks ago:
OK, if that actually turns out, then the Omicron-II wave will start to decline early next week.
So, while it seems like it’s taking forever for this most recent wave to dissipate, that’s not true. As yet, it’s taking just about as much time as you’d have guessed, based on the behavior of the Northeast region. And since that region has now formed a nice, neat top, there’s no reason to change that prediction.
That’s what I would call the predictable dynamics of the Omicron-II (BA.2.12.1) wave. As goes the Northeast, so goes the nation.
Whether or not the newest variants (BA.4 and BA.5) will change that, it’s too soon to tell. My guess, in a just-prior post, is that they won’t.
Low COVID-19 mortality rate
It’s a dreary, rainy day here in Northern Virginia. Which is the perfect time to consult Virginia and national mortality data on COVID-19 and death by all causes.
I’ll close this post by looking COVID-19 mortality data from Virginia, where we have relatively timely information on official new cases and deaths by age. My point being to show how few individuals have died from COVID-19 during the Omicron-II (BA.2.12.1) wave.
I’ve expressed that as a table of odds, below. A randomly selected individual had a one-in-X chance of dying from COVID-19 over this period.
Source: Calculated from Virginia Department of Health data. Population denominators are 2019 Census projection for Virginia.
In the past two months or so (the duration of this COVID-II wave, so far, in Virginia), the odds of a child dying from COVID were about 1 in 600,000. The odds of death for someone age 85+ was about 1 in 900.
Just to benchmark that, based on the U.S. life table for 2018, a man my age has a 1.4% annual risk of death from all causes. Pro-rating that to two months, and comparing to the COVID-19 data for the 55-64 age group, risk of dying from something other than COVID is about 25x higher than risk of dying from COVID.
Not quite as low as the likelihood of being struck by a meteor, but not high on my list of worries.
If I factor in vaccination and booster status — most deaths are still among the un-vaccinated — I’m more than 300x more likely to have died of something other than COVID, than to have died of COVID during this most recent (BA.2.12.1) wave.
At that level, I worry more about cholesterol than COVID. And that’s a good thing.
Am I still masking up in indoor public spaces? Sure, why not. It’s free and somewhat effective, and there still is quite a bit of COVID-19 in circulation. But, objectively, at this point, I can name a couple-dozen things that I need to worry about, regarding risk-of-death, far more than I need to worry about COVID,
