Today we get our final bit of hard data for 2022, on the reported number of new COVID-19 cases. If past years are any guide, for the next few weeks, the holidays will scramble the data so badly that we’ll have no clear idea about the trends, if any.
Unsurprisingly, there’s no trend at the moment. Pretty much the same as it’s been for the past few months.
Hospitalizations and deaths for COVID are up. CDC now shows 5300 new hospitalizations per day, up from the low 3000s a few weeks ago. They show more than 400 deaths a day, up from the low 300s a few weeks ago.
You might jump to the conclusion that this is indicating some change in the virus, but I think that would be premature. Cold weather makes it much harder for the elderly to deal with respiratory and many cardiovascular issues, so hospitalizations and deaths for those conditions rise during the winter months, regardless.
Bottom line is that things are stable. And that winter is hard on frail old people. No surprises in either case.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 12/24/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
And here’s a view of the entire pandemic to date:
Just FYI: Winter is hard on the frail elderly.
Seasonality of hospital admissions for acute heart failure:
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-90790-7
Seasonality of exacerbations of existing COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, e.g., emphysema).
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5819585/
