I find myself grasping at straws, trying to explain away the NY Times/Siena College polling results showing Biden soundly losing to Trump in 2024.
This survey predicts Trump taking five out of six swing states in 2024: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada. But not Wisconsin. Source: This
Having spent some time down in the details, let me summarize: A poll that correctly reproduces the 2020 Biden win (in six swing states) now calls for a big 2024 loss.
Worse, it’s a good poll. By which I mean, a well-executed poll. I saw almost nothing in methods that I strongly disagreed with. (And I used to be in the statistics biz.)
Insert rambling detail here
I have to admit that I woke up just totally pissed off about this poll. After my wife clued me in on it yesterday. Her response to the results was “people suck and I hate them all”. Seems like a valid viewpoint.
I just plain wanted it to be wrong. That’s not science. I looked for obvious errors, and didn’t see any. So far. FWIW. It’s the gold standard — the best available estimate of how these swing states are likely to vote.
Here’s my take on the main message:
Biden’s too old.
And other stuff, sure.
Weirdly, the main writeups seem to skirt this issue. But to my eye, this is something that everybody agreed on.
Separately, smears work, disinformation wins. Seemed like more than half of everybody think Joe Biden’s dirty, and has taken payments from China and Ukraine. Which, as far as actual evidence goes? In any case, one President makes his tax returns public, one does not, I’m gonna stick with the one who does.
Yes but.
And now, from the Democratic side of things, comes a string of “yes, buts.”
There’s some nuance to it, but I think I can boil them down as:
Yes, Biden’s too old. But if my only alternative to Biden is Trump, then “too old” doesn’t exist. If Biden’s breathing, I’m voting for him.
And I have some reasons for preferring Biden. In no small part, it’s fair to expect Biden to assemble a far more competent team than Trump. Fewer cronies, fewer toadies. Fewer of his own children, for that matter. And for sure, with Biden, we’ll likely have fewer Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs mockingly threatened with execution.
So you can “yes, but” it to your heart’s desire. Yes Biden’s 80. But Trump’s 77, fat, and his dad died following a period of dementia.) Yes, Biden sometimes does old-guy stuff, but Trump rarely utters a coherent sentence. If I gotta listen to one old fart ramble, please let it be Biden, and not Trump.
And there’s that whole fate-of-the-Democracy thing. We got one joker in the Senate, saving up military appointments. Hell, what worked for McConnell for the Supreme Court sure ought to work for the military. Given how much Trump admires dictators, the idea of a military run top-to-bottom by Trump acolytes does not appeal to me.
But he’s stuck.
And I mean Joe Biden.
Is there any way that Biden could withdraw from the race? I’m not seeing it.
Wouldn’t he then be obliged to support his vice-president, as the Democratic presidential candidate?
Do you think that America is ready to vote for a Black woman, to be President? Separately, do you think Harris is a good candidate?
My answer is no and no. I don’t see Harris as a viable winning Presidential candidate. So Biden’s stuck there. If he drops out in a normal and reasonable fashion, then the Dems lose in 2024.
So he can’t agree that he’s too old. Even if he thinks he is. And he can’t drop out, for that or any other reason. He options are to fight one more election. Or to lose. No reasonable person can expect Biden not to fight for it.
