An amazing thing happened over the weekend. Or, rather, didn’t happen.
Recall the “13,000 illegal immigrant murderers” story that got a flurry of press coverage last Friday. Including, of course, prominent mention by the Republican candidate for President.
It now appears that Republicans have stopped citing that number, merely because it’s total bullshit. This seems like a new development in the campaign, i.e., letting go of something that juicy, just because they had no idea what they were talking about.
Contrast that to the theme from just two weeks back, Haitians Eating Pets.
There, not only did the Republican ticket refuse to quit spreading that lie, they went into a tizzy over being “fact-checked” about it, AND the Republican VP candidate (whatever his name is*) went so far as to admit that even if it isn’t true, they were justified in exploiting the lie for political gain because … something something something lamestream media fake news … something.
* JD Vance (no periods), James David Vance, James David Hamel, James Donald Bowman. reference.
Two weeks ago, they wouldn’t back off that lie despite pleas from the Republican Governor of Ohio, and the Republican mayor of the city in question. Heck, even after tacitly admitting that it was not true, they justified continuing to use it.
But now, is it possible that the Party of Trump has finally hit its limit on folks makin’ shit up, just to get people riled up?
A bifurcated distribution
The polling pretty clearly shows that about half the population is die-hard pro-Trumpers. No amount of (e.g.) messy divorces, extramarital affairs, sexual assaults, bankruptcies, fraud convictions, felony convictions, a private no-witnesses tête-à-tête with Putin, praise for dictators, praise of pro-Nazi groups, incoherent speeches, flagrant lies, riots at the Capitol aimed at interrupting the peaceful transfer of power, threats to jail political opponents, and just plain ordinary nastiness will make them reconsider their choice.
I sat down just now to figure out how many of the Ten Commandments Trump routinely has broken. Lie? Check. Steal? Check. Adultery? Oh yeah. Then I realized that if he had adhered to the Fourth Commandment (Sabbath), he wouldn’t have been out on a golf course two Sundays ago, making himself a potential target. In any case, giving him the benefit of the doubt, he does not routinely appear to break six out of the ten. I can only assume that above-average performance is why he’s such a favorite among self-described Christian fundamentalists. That, and his crystal-clear stance on abortion, whatever it is this week.
Instead, they just lap that up. No amount of hate-centered chaos is too much. Near as I can tell, as far as mainstream Republicans are concerned.
For example, most recently, when Trump asserted that Harris was born mentally retarded, Republicans cheered. (Some?) Apparently, that’s exactly the sort of useful political debate that mainstream Republicans long to hear. Claim that your political opponent rode the short bus, and you’ll get (some) cheers from a mainstream Republican audience.
This, despite some obvious evidence that if anybody has cognitive problems, it’s — wait, is that a fly in here? — the old fat guy, not his opponent.
So, to current Republicans, this is self-evidently funny:
But this stuff? Maybe not so much.
There seem to be some Republicans who, for whatever reason, react negatively to Trump’s habit of (e.g.) pissing on our war dead, on the Congressional Medal of Honor, and on the democracies that are our long-term allies in maintaining international order.
Or just the general atmosphere of lies, hate, and puerile name-calling that is the core of the Trump campaign. All of which they were willing to overlook … until some some red line was crossed.
Maybe for some, it was shoving an Arlington National Cemetery employee out of the way so that the Candidate could be filmed, grinning and thumbs-up, standing by the graves of recently deceased U.S. soldiers, to make a campaign ad.
Obviously, that wasn’t objectionable to the core of the Republican party. But, plausibly, a few were mildly put off by that.
In any case, here’s why I think Republican election strategy has finally changed.
The core of the Republican Party is going to vote for Trump no matter what. No matter how fundamentally un-American or anti-democracy his behavior is.
But now, as the election nears, every red line he crosses, he manages to alienate just a few more self-described Republicans. Who then join the long list of prominent Republicans who say they aren’t going to vote for him.
They (Republicans) may have finally reached the point where the over-the-top bullshit is counterproductive. As fun as it may be, it doesn’t get Trump any additional votes from his base. Instead, each new outrage now seems to be chipping loose just a few more rock-ribbed Republicans who have (finally) decided that enough is enough.
And so, now that they have maxed out the gains from this strategy of generating outrage at every possible opportunity, and the truth be damned, it’s time to switch to pretending that the Trump candidacy is sane, normal, typical Republican fare.
So that’s what I expect to see, for the last month of the election. I expect to see a concerted effort to portray the Republican candidate as a sound and serious proponent of democracy and the American Way. Contrary to all existing evidence to the contrary.
They have to give Republicans who are on the fence some degree of plausible deniability for all the un-American positions and actions their candidate has taken so far. Plus the tacky grifts. They need to smother the voices of the many prominent Republicans who have said they aren’t supporting Trump.
So, my prediction is for a return to pseudo-sanity for the Republican presidential campaign. A push to remake Trump as a Statesman. Just for the next month. Just enough to make those on the fence forget the recent past.
I guess we’ll see what happens next.
