The U.S. is still at 33 new COVID-19 cases per 100K per day, where it has been for roughly the past three weeks.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 6/10/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Next, I’m just putting a marker down regarding the latest variants BA.4 and BA.5. As noted in yesterday’s post, these have a reputation for re-infecting those whose sole immunity comes from a prior Omicron infection. And, again by reputation, these do not appear to be as good at getting around vaccine-acquired immunity, compared to the original Omicron strains.
If that’s all true, then as BA.4 and BA.5 take over from Omicron-II (BA.2.12.1), we ought to see two things. First, the observed effectiveness of vaccines, at preventing any infection, ought to rise. (Assuming that the fading of vaccine-based immunity is slow, relative to the increase in BA.4 and BA.5). It could hardly get any lower, based the CDC’s estimate from April.
Second, we shouldn’t see any particular increase in case severity. That’s going under the assumption that prior Omicron infection should provide good protection against a severe case of BA.4 or BA.4, same as vaccination does.
The upshot is that we should be looking for a turnaround in that 1.5x number above, over the next couple of months of reporting.
Meanwhile, per the CDC COVID data tracker, deaths from COVID are now just over 300 per day, and hospital admissions for COVID are just over 4000 per day.
