A demand-side hiccup.
We drain the gas stations dry. Then we enter a traffic jam of almost-unbelievable proportions. These are the key consumer components of the American system of hurricane evacuations.
The only constant across major U.S. hurricanes is that, where they are expected to hit the coast, they generate a spot shortage of gasoline, and massive traffic jams, from the resulting evacuation of the area.
For Hurricane Milton, the gas lines are there, but, see below, the traffic jam has not yet formed as of noon Tuesday.
Anyway, knowing that this occurs like clockwork, for every storm-related evacuation, made me change the focus of my emergency preparedness.
The back story: Two years back, I decided to repurpose some old backpacking gear into a couple of “bug out bags”. That is, grab-and-go backpacks that contained a few essentials, in case we had to leave the house in a hurry. A little food, a little water, some cash, a first-aid kit, and so on.
Source: Google maps.
This may seem a bit extreme, possibly paranoid, to some. But it’s not. If nothing else, we live about 11 miles from Ground Zero. Plus, FEMA says it’s a reasonable idea no matter where you live. And Virginia’s hurricane guide itself offers explicit guidelines (e.g., three days’ worth of food and water.) I think of it as a logical extension of my homeowner’s insurance policy.
But as I did my research, I realized the one constant among American weather disasters is the traffic jam. See details in prior post.
If there is an evacuation ordered for my area, for any reason whatsoever, the logical consequence is that, in terms of prepping, what I’ll most likely need is a way to live in my car for … maybe a couple of days. As it inches along, as part of the evacuation traffic jam. The one that always occurs. In every major U.S. evacuation.
And that, in turn, is because a) John Q Public waits until the last minute, and, secondarily, b) the supply chain is geared to providing exactly the amounts that we typically consume.
Anyway, the retail delivery system cannot accommodate spikes in demand well. Whether it’s delivering gas to the consumer, or space on the roadway. When everybody (or even a significant fraction of everybody) decides to fill their tank and leave, at the same time, you get exactly the result you’d expect.
Hence, step 1 of this last round of preparedness evaluation was to place food, water, and sanitation supplies in my wife’s car.
But Milton? Can this be hurricane fatigue?
At the moment, Floridians who live in the path of Hurricane Milton have less than two days to evacuate. Right now it’s around 1 PM Tuesday. Landfall is now expected in 36 hours, which means, practically speaking, if you live in the affected area, and have been ordered to leave, you have today and some part of tomorrow to get elsewhere.
But so far, no hint of a massive traffic jam for Milton. As of noon Tuesday, there only blot on the map (after close inspection) is a slowdown heading into Orlando.
Maybe Google Maps suppresses that information, on evacuation routes, for the public good. But in any event, as of now, about 36 hours before Milton’s landfall, there is no evacuation traffic jam. Or that’s how it appears via Google Maps.
Who issues evacuation orders, exactly?
This turns out to be a weirdly difficult thing to pin down.
Nobody will say. Exactly. I think I’m seeing the sharp dividing line between common sense and the legal system. Based on the ambiguity I’ve come across so far, I think it boils down to this:
There are many authoritative bodies that can suggest that you evacuate before a storm, for your own safety. You should pay them all heed they are due.
In Virginia, for sure, the Governor may order mandatory evacuation of an area. It says so right in Commonwealth statute, where “he” refers to the Governor:
He may direct and compel evacuation of all or part of the populace from any stricken or threatened area if this action is deemed necessary for the preservation of life, implement emergency mitigation, preparedness, response or recovery actions; prescribe routes, modes of transportation and destination in connection with evacuation; and control ingress and egress at an emergency area, including the movement of persons within the area and the occupancy of premises therein.
That’s from this web page.
Beyond that, I can’t find in Commonwealth law where anyone else can order an evacuation.
And yet …
Practically speaking, everybody tells you to listen to “local officials”. The closest I’ve come, to nailing this down for Virginia, is Accomack County, where, under Mandatory Evacuation, they state that:
Local government officials order citizens in specified evacuation zones to relocate to a safer location.
Note the phrasing “local government officials” and “order”. I don’t know whether they make those orders on the authority of the Governor, or whether local officials can order an evacuation themselves. It’s not clear.
It sure seems like the only person who can order a legally-binding mandatory evacuation in Virginia is the Governor. And yet, official documents repeatedly tell you to listen to “local officials”.
In Florida, by contrast, it sure seems like the mandatory evacuation notices for storms are issued by the office of the County Sheriff. This leads to a seeming patchwork map of evacuation orders, as of 9 AM yesterday.
Source: Newsweek.
Upon closer reading, in the affected counties, evacuation orders may only apply to specific high-risk zones within those counties. So the actual map of those under mandatory evacuation probably looks nowhere near as odd as the county-level map shown above.
Virginia has a hurricane evacuation guide?
Virginia’s Guide to Hurricane Evacuation (available as .pdf by clicking the link on this Va Dept. of Emergency Management page) is a fascinating read, as these things go.
In particular, Virginia’s storm evacuation efforts appear to be coordinated by the Commonwealth. At least as far as storm surge is concerned. By eye, the map above is the hurricane storm surge risk map for Virginia, only with areas labeled as zones based the level of risk. More or less, height above sea level, in the areas affected by storm surge.
But it will be county-level officials that suggest or order evacuation the portions of these zones falling within a particular county. Presumably because the Governor ordered it. The result is, I think, a reasonably consistent State-level storm surge evacuation policy, implemented as-needed at the County level.
The Virginia guide does not address the “who” question. Who officially suggests that I evacuate, and more to the point, who may issue a mandatory evacuation order. Near as I can tell, there is literally no mention of who, exactly, issues an evacuation order, per Virginia’s guide to hurricane evacuation:
Residents not residing in a pre-identified evacuation zone should listen to local evacuation orders from local and state emergency agencies to determine if and when to evacuate.
That about covers it. Delightfully ambiguous. Clear as a bell.
No closure on this issue.
Get your facts straight about hurricanes, while you are still allowed to do so.
True fact: Scientists don’t predict that global warming will lead to more hurricanes.
The current summary of scientific understanding of climate change — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th summary report, finalized in 2023, found at this link — contains no conclusions whatsoever about the number of hurricanes.
There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.
Source: NOAA, summary of 2023 IPCC report findings, Global Warming and Hurricanes.
(N.B., As I understand it, that’s because the same forces that are heating the oceans (which should lead to more hurricanes) are also increasing high-altitude wind shear over the tropics (which tends to cut the tops off hurricanes before they can get started). Hence, the net impact of global warming on the number of hurricanes is ambiguous, and likely small.)
Scientists kind-of predict that the hurricanes that do form will be stronger, on average, as a result of climate change. Looks like some aspects of them will and/or both prediction and data suggest that. Some.
Other projected regional changes include intensification of tropical cyclones and/or extratropical storms (medium confidence)
... increased proportion of and peak wind speeds of intense tropical cyclones (high confidence)
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th summary report, finalized in 2023, found at this link
Scientists clearly predict that global warming will lead to more intense rainfall for the typical hurricane. And they are pretty confident of that conclusion.
Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-caused climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (high confidence).
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th summary report, finalized in 2023, found at this link
Those are the facts, as they are known today, regarding climate change and hurricanes, from the most recent IPCC synthesis of the scientific literature on climate change, link given above.
As with all of global warming, it’s happening a lot more slowly than people suggest. Except when it happens to you.
By contrast, if you hear somebody — cutting the baloney, some Republican — blathering about climate change is a hoax because we aren’t seeing an increase in the number of hurricanes, that’s gaslighting. Or merely bullshit. It’s either artful misdirection, or simple ignorance, depending on whether they know better, or not.
That particular climate-change example is just another case of habitually making stuff up, in order to have something about The Enemy that you deplore. The no-increase-in-the-number-of-hurricanes meme is the climate-change equivalent of Ohio Haitians eating dogs.
Just thought that needed to be cleared up. Because — and I swear this is true — you’ll see people point to the lack of increase in the number of hurricanes as evidence that climate change isn’t real. When, in fact, that’s kinda what the theory predicts.
More rain, for sure. More intense on average, pretty likely. But more hurricanes? No.
This is why gaslighters can’t afford to let themselves be fact-checked. If a good portion of your success is from gaslighting people, you’ve got to protect your brand.
