Author: chogan@directresearch.com

Post #344: MAC-related meetings this week

There is only one public meeting this week relevant to MAC zoning.

Thursday, 8/15/2019, at 8 PM, in Town Hall, the Board of Architectural Review will review plans for the Vienna Market/Marco Polo development.

This will be the last item on the agenda.  Plausibly, they may vote to approve the final plans.  The meeting materials are located here:
https://vienna-va.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=4083844&GUID=91C9A320-23F5-4C7D-8754-A6A563052311&Options=&Search=

The Town reserves the right to change or cancel meetings on short notice, so check the Town’s general calendar before you go, at this URL:
https://www.viennava.gov/Calendar.aspx?NID=1&FID=220

Post #343: Where’s Wawa, MODIFIED 8/15/2019

EDIT/ADDENDUM:  After I wrote this, a colleague directed me to look at the Fairfax FIDO website.  There, you can look up the status of all Fairfax County building permits, for any building in the Town of Vienna.  Based on that, the Wawa application for a permit to operate a food service establishment is still active.  (In fact, now that I look closely, they have half-a-dozen permits, everything from signs to electrical work to interior remodeling).  As of now, based on that, it definitely appears that Wawa is coming to Vienna.  Despite the prominent “for rent” sign that remains up at that property.

Original posting follows:

As noted in this earlier post, and continuing to Post #241, earlier this year, Wawa sought and obtained approval to remake the Coldwell Banker building (corner of Nutley and Maple) into a Wawa convenience store.  

Meanwhile, yet a different entity sought permission to revive the dead gas station at Maple and Park, and add a full-sized convenience store. 

This led me to speculate that we were going to end up with more full-sized convenience stores than the Town of Vienna could support.  At least based on the history of 7-11s in Vienna (outlined in this post).  If all this planned development occurred, we’d have four full-sized convenience stores, plus mini-marts at some of the gas stations.  Whereas the Town did not appear to be able to support three 7-11s.  (The third Vienna 7-11 was located at Maple and Courthouse.)

Anyway, a colleague pointed out that the property-for-rent sign has not come down at the Coldwell Banker building.  To the contrary, it looks like they put up a brand new and more prominent sign.

So that’s a bit of a puzzler.  And a bit of a worry.  For the following reasons:

  1.  One corner of that intersection is already slated to be covered by a big MAC building (444 Maple West/Tequila Grande).  You have to wonder whether somebody will want to build its twin right across the street.
  2. The building next door to Coldwell Banker is also vacant (the former Joe’s Pasta), and is being offered for rent by the same company handling the former Coldwell Banker building.
  3. In a prior Town Council session, one Town Council member let slip that it would be OK to lengthen the left-turn-lane on Nutley, at that intersection, because the buildings across the street would be combined anyway (and so would still have a viable entrance on Maple).  So, apparently, almost a year ago, something may or may not have been in the works regarding those properties.
  4. For these narrow, deep lots, erasing a lot line (combining lots) is hugely profitable under MAC, because it allows much more building to be built on the same acreage, assuming that individual buildings on individual lots would sit five or ten feet off the common lot line.
  5. But, isn’t the Town going to extend the moratorium on new MAC buildings?  That seems to be the common assumption, but so far there has been no discussion and no progress on that.  And time is short, as noted in Post #323 and Post #325.
  6. And maybe they don’t need MAC.  It sure looks like 901 Glyndon may have set a precedent of unquestioned by-right construction of two floors of housing over one floor of retail, merely by the Town declaring that such a building is “primarily occupied” for commercial use.  In other words, it looks like Town staff can simply declare that three-story mixed-use construction (two floors of housing over one floor of retail) is now OK, by right, under Vienna’s standard commercial zoning.

Maybe that new sign is just a harmless bit of theater.  It might be there just to help reinforce the narrative that Maple Avenue retail is in crisis.  Then again, maybe it means that Wawa changed its mind.  All told, I think I’ll feel more comfortable when I see Wawa get started on making over the Coldwell Banker building.

Post #342: The Sunrise lawsuit: $30M and counting.

First, a tip of the hat to Dave Patariu, a lawyer here in Vienna who obtained a copy of the Sunrise legal complaint from the Fairfax County Circuit Court and shared that with me.  If you want your own copy (.pdf), you may download it at this Google Drive link.

Next  — and don’t get me wrong here, my tax dollars will end up paying for this just as much as yours will — this is not a surprise.   It seemed like the logical thing for Sunrise to do, as I noted in Post #321.

OK, now for a summary of the complaint.  Here’s where it starts to get weird.

Continue reading Post #342: The Sunrise lawsuit: $30M and counting.

Post #341: Recession

The recent dips in the stock market got me asking how the next recession might affect the Town of Vienna, including property values and tax revenues.  This is my first look at how Vienna compared to the U.S. during the last recession.  The question I am eventually working toward how the Town of Vienna revenues changed during and following the last recession.

In 2008, the US very nearly suffered a collapse of its financial system.  And as time passes, we tend to for get that.  Because, in the end, the various Federal rescue efforts — and deposit insurance — were successful.  For now, at least, we still have a banking system, and housing prices have large recovered.

The first section briefly reviews the national impact of the 2008 financial collapse, the second section looks specifically at DC and Vienna housing prices.  Continue reading Post #341: Recession

Post #340: Choices for the Town’s election process

This brief posting points out two simple changes the Town of Vienna could make to ensure greater election transparency and greater voter participation.   The Town Council could vote to have the Virginia Campaign Finance Disclosure Act (CDFA) apply to Town of Vienna elections.  And it could vote to move Town elections to coincide with the November general election.

Continue reading Post #340: Choices for the Town’s election process

Post #339: More on Maple Avenue valuations and investment

One oddity of Maple Avenue retail property is that  little of it is advertised as being for sale.  That’s an oddity, if you think there is some sort of crisis in retail.  But not if you think that returns on current investments appear reasonably good.  If the returns are adequate, sales should be infrequent, if only to take advantage of the tax-deferred nature of the investment: Capital gains taxes only have to be paid upon sale of the property.

In any case, my internet search turned up only three advertisements for Maple Avenue retail property for sale.

As noted in Post #319, the combined Starbucks drive-through and Just Tires properties are being offered for sale at $961 per retail square foot.  (See this reference for the ad.)  From that ad, you can infer something like a $60/sq ft/year rental on the retail space.

The two medical office buildings at Maple and Center (where the Sunrise assisted living was proposed):  $7.5M, $682/retail square foot, at this link.

The Princess Jewelers shop, 527 Maple Avenue West, $1.7M, calculated as just over $500/square foot, at this link.

And that led me to thinking about what is and isn’t a feasible investment under existing C1 zoning.

And here, I’m not thinking of just rehabbing existing space.  We know that buildings along Maple are being rehabbed and repurposed all the time.  So that level of investment clearly appears profitable.  A few recent examples finished or in the works include:

  • Taco Bell –> Starbucks;
  • Magruders –> restaurants;
  • Dead gas station –> gas station plus convenience store;
  • Coldwell Banker offices –>  Wawa
  • Pro Feed Pet Supplies –> Ramen restaurant
  • Sandy Spring Bank –> Animal hospital

I could go on.  The point is, there is no lack of examples for redoing existing space.  (And this doesn’t even count the cosmetic make-overs of various shopping center fronts up and down Maple.)

But a more serious question is, how profitable might new construction be?  We have seen some new construction (Sweet Leaf, 2010) in living memory.  But not much.  Is that because it’s sufficiently profitable to remake existing buildings, or is that because it’s just not profitable to build something new, along Maple, under existing zoning?

Obviously, I’m not a builder.  But let me try a rough cut at a pro-forma calculation.

Continue reading Post #339: More on Maple Avenue valuations and investment

Post #338: Rental electric scooters, again.

This article is about decisions that the Town must make, in the near future, regarding rental electric scooters and rental bicycles.  It ends with some discussion of the presumed environmental benefits of electric scooters.

Bottom line:  Thanks to a change in Virginia law, the Town needs to come up with some form of regulation for “dockless” rental electric scooters by 1/1/2020.  If not, we end up with open season for rental electric scooters in Vienna, which we probably want to avoid.  Unregulated dockless bike and scooter rentals have become a nuisance in many major cities (see examples in this post).

Here, I line out what a minimum set of regulations probably ought to cover.  (Which is no great shakes — just look at what other local jurisdictions have done.)

Separately, the Town needs to find places for racks for the “docked” Capital Bikeshare rental bikes.

N.B:  In “docked” systems, bikes (or other devices) are picked up from and returned to dedicated racks.  (If not, steep charges mount up for the renter.)  Smartphone apps show how many bicycles/scooters are available for use at each rack.  By contrast, in “dockless” systems, scooters or bikes may be picked up and left anywhere, tracked by a combination of on-board GPS and internet connectivity.  Smartphone apps show the location of available scooters or bikes.   Rental is accomplished via smartphone app and account, or in some cases, via credit card swipe.

Continue reading Post #338: Rental electric scooters, again.

Post #337: Retail property assessments along Maple

I’m certainly tired of hearing about what a crisis Maple Avenue retail is in.  At the risk of caricature, the argument seems to be that We Must Act Now or risk having Maple become a ghost town.

Anyone who has tried to drive down Maple Avenue on a Saturday afternoon probably wishes for a little more”ghost town” now and then.  By eye, the reality appears to be the opposite of crisis:  Maple appears to be a busy, viable, profitable shopping district.  Maybe a little too busy at times.

In this posting, I’m going to take my prior analyses of Maple Avenue retail a bit further and look at tax assessments along Maple, compared their trend and level ($/sq ft.) to assessments of similar properties outside of Vienna, but nearby.  The bottom line is consistent with all my prior work:  Tax assessments of the largest retail properties here are rising, and assessment per square foot of land is comparable to retail sites near (but not in) the Town of Vienna.

People who tell you there’s a crisis in Maple Avenue retail do not appear to have the facts on their side. Continue reading Post #337: Retail property assessments along Maple