Post #1991: My bike made a funny noise the other day …

 

 

Caution:  This post is an aging-related first-person anecdote.

… as I was riding it.

Sort of a creaky-cracky sound.

I assumed it was something amiss in the drive train, as the sound came and went right in time with my pedaling.

Tried to suss out what it was.

Turns out, it was my knees.

Whoa.  That noise, coming out of my knees?  Oh, that’s unambiguously bad.

In my defense, I’d never been in this situation before.  On the plus side, I did eventually figure it out.  And turned around, and headed home, and eased up.

So, I eventually did the mostly-right thing.

It just takes me a while to make up my mind.

Post #1989: What fraction of U.S. gasoline consumption is for lawn mowing?

 

I should preface this by stating that I drive an EV and heat my house with a ground-source heat pump.  So I’m hardly against substituting electricity for direct combustion of fossil fuels.

But the data are what they are.

Best guess is that all types of lawn-care type activities, both residential and commercial, including mowing, leaf blowing, and so on, together account for as much as 2% of U.S. gasoline consumption.  Residential (non-commercial) yard care of all sorts accounts for maybe 0.6% of U.S. gasoline consumption.

Since C02 production is directly proportional to gasoline use, that means residential lawn mowing is rounding error in terms of global warming impact.

For the average American, using an electric lawn mower in no material way offsets the global warming impact of driving an SUV, truck, or car.  Choice of car is more than 100 times as important as your choice of lawn mower.

I hope nobody is surprised by that, despite the ludicrous estimates of the environmental impact of lawn mowing that can be found on the internet.


Source:  Saint Philip Neri and the chicken, 16th century, as quoted by Pope Francis.

Study: On Twitter, false news travels faster than true stories

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018

“A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.”

Often attributed to Mark Twain, circa 1900.

Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it.

Jonathan Swift, 1710


Lawn mowers, yet again.

The point of this post is to estimate what fraction of U.S. gasoline use is attributable to lawn mowers. 

Each gallon of gas burned creates roughly the same 20 pounds or so of C02.  Therefore (ignoring NOx, nitrogen oxides), the fraction of gasoline consumption attributable to lawn-mowing will tell me the contribution that gasoline-based lawn mowing makes to global warming, relative to gasoline-driven passenger vehicles, in the U.S.

In other words, residential lawn mowing’s share of gasoline burned is lawn mower’s share of C02 released.  And that shows how U.S. gas lawn mowers (in aggregate) compare to our passenger vehicles (in aggregate), in contributing the world’s warming.

In previous posts, I showed how a modern (overhead-valve) lawn mower engine stacks up against a typical car, in terms of pollution per hour (Post #1775 and related posts).   (Pollution being defined in various traditional ways (e.g, particulates, nitrogen oxides.)  In round numbers, an hour of mowing produces roughly the same pollution as an hour of driving a typical car.  

While “pollution” as used above includes particulates and smog-forming emissions, it doesn’t include C02 at all.  Yet, while most smog-forming emissions are relatively short-lived, the increase in atmospheric C02 from fossil-fuel combustion is a nearly-permanent addition to atmospheric greenhouse gasses, in the context of a human lifespan.  (As in, like, forever — here’s a little something published in Nature Climate Change to brighten your day REFERENCE).  Most of it will still be affecting climate 300 years from now.  A good chunk of it — say a quarter — will still be warming the climate millenia from now.

(Separately, the big shocker to me was finding out that gas in gas cans is major source of pollution. Per my actual test, old plastic gas cans (“Blitz cans”) are ridiculously permeable to gasoline, and gas stored in old plastic cans is a large source of smog-forming gasoline vapor.  This, apparently, is why the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has such stringent standards for gas cans.  And why, until recently, “CARB-compliant gas can” was synonymous with “awkward to use”.)

Post #1773: Gas vs. electric mowing, part 3: Why do all gas cans suck?

For the estimate above, I did my own number-crunching, with clear documentation as to sources of data and details of calculation, because estimates on the internet are all over the map.  The plausible estimates were mostly published by state governments.  The ludicrous ones appear to come from fanatical but innumerate environmentalists.

And, of course, it’s the ludicrous ones that get recirculated the most.  You might think that’s something unique to the internet, but per the quotes above, the internet merely speeds up and amps up long-noticed aspect of human nature.  Lies are juicer than the truth, and propagate accordingly, seemingly regardless of the medium of propagation.

In any case, to validate my prior estimate (an hour of mowing is like an hour of driving), I decided to look at estimates of the fraction of U.S. gasoline consumption that goes to lawn care.

And — no big surprise — those estimates seem to have the somewhat the same bullshit nonsense level as the estimates of the pollution generated by an hour of mowing.  So I thought I’d take an hour this morning and try to separate fact from fiction, on this question.


Some calculations, and some citations, regarding the fraction of U.S. gasoline use attributable to lawn mowing.

Crude per-household use calculation, lawn mowers: 0.6%.

Source:  OFF-HIGHWAY AND PUBLIC-USE GASOLINE CONSUMPTION ESTIMATION MODELS USED IN THE FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION Final Report for the 2014 Model Revisions and Recalibrations,Publication Number – FHWA-PL-17-012 June 2015

The U.S. consumes about 136 billion gallons of gasoline per year, of which 91% is for light cars and trucks (Cite:  US Energy Information Agency).

The U.S. has about 130M households (Cite: U.S. Census Bureau, via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).

Ergo, by the magic of long division, average annual U.S. gasoline consumption works out to be a nice round (136B/130M =~) 1000 gallons per household.

(Separately, this squares with survey-based estimates showing about 650 gallons of gasoline consumed annually per licensed U.S. driver (CITE), and, based on harder statistics, about 230M licensed drivers (CITE).  (That is, 650 x 230M drivers /130M households =~ 1150 gallons of gas per year, per household).

I use about 2 gallons of gas per year, mowing my large suburban lawn, using a mower with a modern overhead-valve Honda engine.  I’m guessing that’s an upper bound for per-household use, as my yard is larger than average.

This suggests that gasoline use, attributable to household lawn mowing, accounts for somewhere around (2/1000 =~) 0.2% of total U.S. gasoline use. 

But, per the EPA graphic above, households only account for about a third of all gasoline use, for all types of lawn care (e.g., mowing, leaf blowing, snow blowing, and so on).  So total U.S. gasoline consumption for lawn care, of all types, by all sources, would therefore be about 0.6% of all U.S. gasoline consumption.

EPA, 2015:  2.7B gallons for all lawn care activities, residential and commercial, about 2% of total U.S. gasoline consumption. 

Separately, the same EPA source (for the graphic, above, Table 42) directly estimates 0.9B gallons of gas used for residential lawn care activities annually, and a further 1.8B used for all types of commercial lawn care, for a total of about 2.7B gallons of gasoline use for all types of lawn-care type activities.  This would therefore amount to (2.7B for lawn care/137B total =~) 2% of total U.S. gasoline consumption.

U.S. Department of Energy (2011):  Mowers alone, residential and commercial, 1%.

” Mowers consume 1.2 billion gallons of gasoline annually, about 1% of U.S. motor gasoline consumption.”

Source:  Clean Cities Guide to Alternative Fuel Commercial Lawn
Equipment, U.S. DOE, 2011.


Conclusion

Source:  RC groups.com

I’d say that’s more than enough research to get a usable answer.

Almost all gasoline in the U.S. is used for private on-road light vehicles (cars, trucks, SUVs).  Per the EPA cite above, 91% of it.

From the perspective of global warming, that’s the problem.

The amount of gas used by household lawn mowing is regrettable, but it’s rounding error in the big picture.

Buying an electric lawn mower in no way expiates the sin of driving a gas-guzzling car.  Or, really, any car, for that matter.

Keep your eye on the ball.  Despite what you may read on the internet.

Addendum:  Lawn services that do residences are classified as what, exactly?

I never did find a direct answer to this via the U.S. EPA.  By looking at the earliest versions of their work, I infer that the original split between residential and commercial yard work is by ownership of the equipment.  Initially, it was referred to as “privately owned” versus commercial equipment.

The upshot is that if a commercial service cuts somebody’s yard, the EPA likely counts that as commercial use.  So to get apples to apples, I likely need to move some part of the EPA’s commercial use back to the residential sector.  That is, if I really intend to assess the impact of mowing one’s yard / having one’s yard mown, relative to the impact of cars.

This will increase my initially-cited estimate of 0.6% of using gasoline being used for mowing. But, by how much?

Best I can tell, something like three-quarters to four-fifths of Americans mow their own lawn.  (You know what I mean: Of those who have a lawn … e.g., CITE).  But that really ought be to weighted by lawn area, as it’s almost certainly true that the larger the private lawn, the more likely it is to be cut by a professional.  I did not find that information anywhere, so …

If I stick with the lower cited number and pretend that only three-quarters of residential lawn mowing is done by individuals (that is, using privately-owned mowing equipment), because three-quarters of people with lawns mow their own,  I need to adjust the initial 0.6% upward to 0.8%. (The EPA residential sector estimate omits about a quarter of U.S. residential lawn mowing, because a quarter of private lawns are commercially mown.)

The conclusion is unchanged.  In the U.S., gasoline used in lawn care is trivial compared to the gasoline used by passenger vehicles.

Post #1987: Just another bit of Future Shock.

 

Yesterday I tried to buy a garlic press that wasn’t made in China.

Literally, anywhere but.  After looking at Amazon listings for maybe 15 minutes, I could not find one.

And, to be clear, I don’t mean “made in the USA”.  I mean, made in any country other than China. 

But, among 20 Amazon listings examined, of the half that had explicit country-of-origin information, all of those were made in China.

Its not a huge surprise that I failed.

The only thing of interest was the breadth of the failure.  China, Inc. doesn’t just cheaply mass-produce a single, widely-sold model.  As might have been common perception in my youth.  Today, by contrast, on Amazon, as searched below, China produces every make-and-model for which country of origin information is listed.

Source:  Gencraft AI.  The prompt was … Rosie the Riveter holding a garlic press.

Methods:  (As if anyone cares.)  Two searches on Amazon for “garlic press” (less the quotes) are shown below.  Top is “featured”, which is how Amazon presents it to you, by default.  And then sorted by (descending) average customer rating.  (Other sorts were examined, but were uninteresting, e.g. cheapest first).

Aside from the occasional lemon (squeezer, N/A below), I slashed through those products for which China was explicitly listed as the country of origin, on Amazon.  And question-marked the ones where nothing was listed, or only a coy “imported” or similar non-specific phrase was listed.

Featured by Amazon:

 

Sorted by top customer rating:

Of the listings for which explicit country-of-origin information was given, all said “China”.  With red slashes above.  With one exception (U.K.?) which turns to be an error.  That’s actually made in China, but you have to work to ferret that out.

The bigger surprise was the about half the listings don’t show any country-of-origin information.  Once upon a time, I thought there was a legal requirement of some kind, that anything sold retail, and not made in the U.S., must show country-of-origin information.

As with many things, I may mis-recall that.  Or it’s one of the quaint laws from my youth that has been allowed to pass into irrelevance.  Further, that might only strictly apply to the physical package.  And may be unenforceable (see, e.g., Pur canning lids at Ace Hardware, Post (G22-002).

In any case, the device listed with the U.K. as country of origin was wrong.  I finally tracked the same item down on the Williams-Sonoma website, where they plainly say that China is the country of origin.  A letdown, for sure, but at least Williams-Sonoma didn’t dodge the issue.

No coy “imported” from Williams-Sonoma.  They named names.  That’s laudable, if perhaps not profit-maximizing.


Conclusion:  Pardon my Future Shock.

Source:  My back porch.

The results of my search are even more boring than they first look.  Or scary, depending your your viewpoint.  No shock that every (fill-in-the-blank) you can buy on Amazon is made in China.

But, having grown some garlic, I now would like to buy a device to let me use it without peeling it.  (Fresh, I find it like-onto-impossible to peel it.  As if peeling garlic were ever a pleasant chore to start with.)  It appears that my sole option for a garlic press is to buy one manufactured in China.  (Or get an ancient one in a thrift shop.)

Upshot:  I can have any garlic press I want.  As long as it’s made-in-China.

This is just a small contributor to my permanent state of Future Shock.  Which, briefly, is an unsettled feeling due to the rapid rate of change of your own culture, by analogy to “culture shock”, for a displaced person.  It is culture shock, but the culture I am unfamiliar with is my own.

(I think Future Shock is a good part of what drives Trumpism.  But that’s for a different post.  But trends are what they are, no matter how much you yack about them.  U.S. coal industry employment, below:

Partly, I experience a lot of Future Shock just because I’m old.  E.g., I will likely never get used to (e.g.,) electronic restaurant menus, to be read on-the-fly, on a phone.

But partly, it’s just plain weird out.  Here in the U.S.A..  What passes for weather here.  What passes for politics here.  And so on.

Universal mandatory made-in-China is just a tiny part of that.  Not the most disconcerting thing in my world.  Not by a longshot.  But it’s off-putting.  

I’m stubborn enough that I’m going to check my local thrift shop(s) before I spend a dime on a made-in-China garlic press.  Even a well-made-in-China press.  Just because I’m old, I guess.  I’ll see if I can find a functioning antique in my local thrift shop.

The Functioning Antiques. Great name for a rock band, as Dave Barry used to say.

Post #1986: Chevy Bolt six-month review.

 

In a nutshell:  It’s a fine car.

But if I ever run out of windshield wiper fluid, I’m going to have to buy another car.  That’s because, even with buying it used, and driving it almost daily for half a year now — I’ve never opened the hood.  Why should I?  This, by itself, sets it apart from every gas or hybrid car I’ve ever owned,

To me, the Chevy Bolt is like an electric toothbrush. It makes reassuring noises when I turn it on.  It does what its supposed to do, better than any other practical alternative.  When I’m done, I plug it in.  And the next day, it’s ready to use again.

Beyond that, I don’t give it another thought.  Which, to me, is exactly how a car should be.

It has enough range to be able to drive an hour or two out of town.  And, more importantly, drive back again.  All without having to do a fast-recharge on the road.  Which, as I have noted in earlier blog posts, is a hassle.

It’s surprisingly efficient, despite its relatively tall profile.  I get just under 5 miles / kilowatt-hour as driven, running the AC.   It seems to get roughly the same mileage city or highway.  But I’m an easy-going driver, and we have no super-speed (e.g., 80 MPH) highways around here.  (At least, not legally.)

In terms of carbon emissions per mile, it’s equivalent to a gasoline-powered vehicle getting about 155 MPG.  So it’s a real step up, in terms of efficiency, from a Prius or other efficient hybrid.  (All that is based on where I charge it (Virginia), where grid electricity is delivered at an average of about 0.65 pounds C02/KWH.)

In terms of the lifetime carbon footprint of the car, including creation, use, and recycling, it’s still carbon-sparing compared to (say) a Prius hybrid.  But the advantage isn’t as large as the fuel-only comparison above, owing to the energy-intensive nature of making lithium-ion batteries.  You spend a few years “paying back” the C02 used to make the battery.  After that, it’s all gravy.

And, FWIW, I think there’s still a lot of uncertainty over the eventual recycling of those big lithium-ion batteries when this car is eventually scrapped.  Everybody seems to think this is (eventually going to be) a non-issue, but I am not yet convinced that’s true. Sure ain’t true now, around here.

I’ve beaten that drum before, in this blog.

It’s zippy at low speed, but I now realize this is a generic fault with all direct-drive EVs.  It’s a little too torque-ey for its own good, really.  But as I now understand it (thanks to Watch Wes Work), manufacturers have to make them over-torqued, at low speed, in order for direct-drive electric cars to have adequate torque at high speed.

But if you like zipping around, a Bolt will do that, for sure.


Biggest shortcomings?

Well, it’s short.   It’s a hatchback, which I like.  But it’s about a foot and a half shorter than a Prius, bumper-to-bumper.  And the Prius is hardly a large car.

This has a few implications.  First, you are limited in what you can carry with the hatchback closed.  If I bring home eight-foot-long 2x4s from the hardware store, I have to run the up through the opening between the front seats.  That’s pretty ugly.  Second, it has a tight suspension, which I suspect is due to the high weight (4300 pounds), in a relatively small footprint.  When combined with the short bumper-to-bumper length, makes for a fairly choppy ride under the wrong road conditions.   If it were a sailboat, I’d say it hobby-horses.  That is, rocks front-to-back, excessively, on just the right kind of rough road surface.

The second consequence of that is luggage space is small with the back seats up.  By eye, I’d have been hard-pressed to take my family of four on a week’s vacation, with this car, unless we packed really lightly.  Whereas I did that with both a Prius and a Mazda 5 — not exactly large vehicles in either case — with no problems.

Overall, the ride is a bit more “jiggly” than I would prefer.

But that may be because overall, I’m a bit more “jiggly” than I would prefer.

It also has a surprisingly wide turning radius, given that it’s basically a small car.  Noticeably wider than any other cars I’ve owned recently, including a Prius.

In addition, it creeps me out when I look at my dashboard, and see that my car knows who I’ve been talking to on my phone.   Particularly because, as I understand it, Chevy retains the right to (and does) pull any and all data it wants to off my car.  Which, given that it has a built-in GPS, means not just (e.g.,) driving performance data, but location data as well.  Plus anything it can cadge off your phone.  In any case, it creeps me out so much that at I’ve taken Android Auto off my phone, and I’ve erased the Bluetooth connection between car and phone from my car’s memory.  I went so far as to buy the parts to replace the car’s phone antenna with a dummy load, but I have not gone so far as to replace it.  Among other things, it seems that Chevy’s OnStar connection has multiple antennas connected to it, and is extremely difficult to disable without disabling other, necessary functions of the vehicle.

In other words, this car connects to Skynet and you can’t effectively opt out of that.  I assume all modern cars sold in the U.S. are now about the same, in disregarding any notion of privacy.  But I’m old enough that this bothers me.

Finally, it didn’t come with either a jack or a spare tire, both of which I’ve fixed through the magic of Ebay and a couple-hundred bucks.

Beyond that, no complaints.  It gets me from A to B efficiently, safely, and comfortably.  I push the gas pedal and the car goes.  I push the brake, and it stops.  AC cools the interior well.  Heat does the reverse.  The weight makes it stable on the road.  And it feels extremely solid and safe.  No rattles.

Decent radio.

It’s all I need: An efficient urban grocery-getter.  But with the option of taking longer trips if you want, due to an EPA range of 250 miles, and a real-world range (for me) of more than 300 miles.

And it ain’t getting much better any time soon.  Assuming I understand the physics of it, it’s unlikely that electric cars are going to get more efficient than this.  The batteries may get lighter and have more capacity, but cars will still be getting 5 miles per KWH decades from now.  If cars still exist at that point.


Motivated buyer

So I took the plunge and bought one.  In January 2024 I bought a 2020 Chevy Bolt with 5,000 miles on it, for just under $19,000, all-in (including taxes, tags, fees).  (Shout out to Kingstowne Motorcars, as that was the easiest and least stressful car purchase I’ve ever had.)

My Bolt came off three years’ lease in Vermont, and was shipped to a warmer climate for resale. All the used Bolts for sale around here were, similarly, Bolts from northern states that had been shipped south for resale as used cars.

It seemed like a reasonable deal, for a low-mileage late-model used car.

But the icing on the cake is the $4000 Federal tax credit.  Uncle Sam will give me $4000 of my tax money back, because I bought this US-made EV.  Used, no less.  At least, that’s the theory.  Assuming I can keep my income low enough this year.

Net of tax credit, I will have bought a 3-year-old car with 5000 miles on it for under $15,000, all in.

Before you get bent out of shape about that tax credit, realize that Uncle Sam has been providing similar tax credits for decades now.  So if you’re angry about the current set of time-limited EV subsidies, you’re late to the party.  Uncle Sam offered a similar tax subsidy for purchasing a hybrid — back in the mid-2000’s — when hybrids were the brand-new fuel-saving technology.  The current EV (and PHEV) subsidies have Biden’s Buy-American twist to them (cars have to have adequate U.S. content to qualify), plus some fairly socialist caps on the income you can have, and still qualify for the tax credit.  But aside from those details, the current EV tax credits are just the most recent in a long line of subsidies aimed at improving U.S. transportation efficiency and reducing domestic use of fossil fuels.

Which, if you understand the long-term consequences of global warming, for the U.S. and the world, is a good thing.  Depending on how much it costs, relative to other polices to curb emissions.  This may be too little too late.  Certainly, with a Republican takeover of the Federal government shaping up for November,  it probably is too late.

Arguably, offering incentives to switch to more efficient modes of private transport is better than doing nothing.  Unarguably, it’s miles ahead of making things worse by encouraging use of fossil fuels. Which, unless I’ve missed something, seems to be all the Republicans have to offer in this area. 

Maybe I need to do a post on the big-league god-awful things that are projected to happen to the U.S.A. under unabated global warming.  This century.  In order, I’d put a) loss of the Great Plains as a crop-growing area, followed by b) loss of considerable coastal real estate, with no hope of ever again having a stable shoreline for … the next millennium or so.

Let me rank those 1 and 2, with the shutdown of the Gulf Stream (the thermohaline ocean circulation) a pretty good third.  When that happens, that ought to give the U.S. East Coast about 4′ of sea level rise in a matter of months.  That should set off a pretty spectacular scramble.

This is why I’m bothering with an EV in the first place.  The U.S. will bear high economic and human costs by the end of this century, under unabated build up of atmospheric C02.  Costs that could have been avoided by relative cheap actions taken now.  I could not, in good conscience, not avail myself of a good deal on an EV, rather than drive a hybrid.

But as a nation, seems like the Republican Party is psyched to roll back any progress we’ve made in terms of reducing fossil fuel use.  Just as they did the last time they took the White House, so that’s not a surprise.  The upshot is that instead of doing the cheap, forward-looking thing — moving to a low-carbon-emissions economy, and throw our weight around internationally to see that others do the same — looks like we’re just going to let our descendants pay for it.  And hope the country stays glued together without the food surpluses generated by growing crops in the U.S. Midwest.

As a geezer with some money, I’m supposed to be flying all over the world, taking ocean cruises, touring the U.S. in a motor home.  Because why not?  I’ll be dead before anything but the slightest impacts of global warming are being felt in the U.S.  A catastrophic forest fire here, maybe some Cat-5 hurricanes there.  No biggie.

But then there’s this:

The climate is a common good, belonging to all and meant for all. At the global level, it is a complex system linked to many of the essential conditions for human life. A very solid scientific consensus indicates that we are presently witnessing a disturbing warming of the climatic system. In recent decades this warming has been accompanied by a constant rise in the sea level and, it would appear, by an increase of extreme weather events, even if a scientifically determinable cause cannot be assigned to each particular phenomenon. Humanity is called to recognize the need for changes of lifestyle, production and consumption, in order to combat this warming or at least the human causes which produce or aggravate it.

Source:  The Pope.  (ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI’ OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME, published May 24, 2015

I’m not sure the Catholic church is the greatest source for environmentalism, but the Pope gets global warming.  Once the interiors of the continents (ours and others) dry out and no longer reliably produce food, a whole lot of the poorest people on the planet are going to starve to death.  So he called on Catholics to give the same moral weight to stopping global warming as to, say, the banning of abortion.

As if.

On a less helpful note, did anybody ever both to check on in the coal miners that Trump said he was going to help?  That was from, what, the 2016 election cycle?

Accountability is easy enough.  Here’s coal mining employment from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED).

Hmm.  It’s almost as if coal mining industry employment was determined by economic trends, or something.  And any promise from a politician’s lips, to resurrect U.S. Coal, is just nonsense.  Although, to be honest, I can’t recall what policies whatsisname tried to get enacted, after he was elected, that were actually aimed at helping coal miners. I mean, they aren’t rich people.

Sure, Trump killed the Obama clean power plan, and pulled the U.S. out of the (completely voluntary, set-your-own-targets) Paris climate agreement.  That, as part of rolling back any recent progress in weaning the American economy off fossil fuels. Thus attempting to drive the U.S. economy with eyes firmly fixed on the rear-view mirror.

In any case, as you can see above, the answer to my question is no.  No, as far as the numbers go, Trump didn’t come to the aid of the coal miners.  Unsurprisingly, destroying existing policy isn’t the same as taking positive steps to improve anything.  The coal industry included.  In any case, if any actual targeted pro-coal policies were enacted during that  era, they don’t seem to have done much for the U.S. coal-industry employment.

OK, forget about coal.  Ludicrous Republican promises to revive failed and now must be forgotten.  (Failed because, among other things, natural gas is now a cheaper and more flexible fuel for electrical generation.)  Voters never seem to remember anything, anyway.  So take the place of Coal as a symbol of backward-looking policy, now it’s drill baby drill.

Luckily, this is self-limiting, in that if the world does nothing about C02 emissions, there likely won’t be anything resembling the U.S.A. a century from now.  What’s left of our current territory will resemble Australia, with settlement along the coasts, and a dry continental interior.  Except that, unlike current-day Australia, the coasts will be creeping unstoppably land-ward at an ever-accelerating rate.

(It’s not even hard to grasp why the soil in the middles of continents is predicted to dry out, as the world warms.  Take a wet sponge, sit it on a table, and it will eventually dry out.  Warm up that sponge, and it dries out faster.  For any given initial moisture level, the warmer sponge is the dryer sponge.  Now substitute “U.S. Midwest topsoil” for sponge, and you’ll get the gist of why the Great Plains are going to revert toward being the Great American Desert.  As average temperatures rise, the climate (and mean soil moisture levels) that you see in west Texas and Mexico will simply move north and become the climate of the U.S. Midwest.  Truly not rocket science.  Interestingly, the atmosphere will hold more water as it warms, and there will therefore be more precipitation on net.  But that precipitation will move northward as well, owing to expansion of the Hadley cell(s), the big chunks of global atmospheric circulation that are rooted by the rise of hot air at the equator.  Canada will remain well-watered.  The U.S., not so much.)

My only point being that people who think we can just keep on consuming fossil fuels at our current rate, and generations from now Americans will live much as we live today … that’s a fantasy.

We can clean up our own mess, at modest cost, or our descendants will live with some extremely expensive consequences.  That’s the reality of it.  And that’s exactly how I see the whole issue of C02-driven global warming.  We now know that C02 emissions are making a mess of the Earth.  It’s just a case of being willing to clean up you own mess, like an adult, rather than leave your mess for others to clean up, like a child.

So that’s why I bought a Bolt.  It’s not a lefty-liberal thing to do.  It’s the efficient thing to do.  It makes less mess than a gas-powered car.  So, in the end, I’m just trying to act like an adult, socially speaking.

End of rant.


Conclusion.

As I was driving my car, it occurred to me that, per mile, my car produces about one-tenth of the C02 per mile that my father’s cars did. (He was partial to V8 Ford products, and drove Mercuries for most of my childhood.)  Fifteen MPG isn’t a bad guess for a late-1960s V8 sedan.  Versus over 150 MPG-equivalent, for this vehicle.

That’s the sort of carbon-efficiency improvement we now need, across-the-board, to get the current runaway atmospheric C02 level under control. 

So in the end, it doesn’t really much matter whether or not the Bolt is the car of my dreams.  It’s the car that fit my needs to a T.  The fact that I like driving it, and that it was about as cheap as any low-mileage used car, those are just a bonus.  It was a no-brainer to go with an efficient small EV.

If nothing else, cars last a long time.  The purchase decision you make today means that the world is gifted with that car for its full usable service life.  Given the high quality of modern vehicles, that can easily be two decade.  I sincerely hope that 20 years from now, gas-powered cars are viewed as ridiculously old-fashioned.  And not in a good way.  Whereas I’m pretty sure that if this Bolt is still running at that point, it’ll fit right in with the then-current U.S. car fleet.  Assuming the U.S. car fleet still exists.

The other day, almost unprompted, my next-door-neighbor (who is also an economist) said something like “capitalism will survive, even if the U.S. doesn’t”.

So I’m not the only one having thoughts like that these days.

I can’t solve this problem, but at least I can make some minimal effort to avoid contributing to it more than necessary.

Hence, an EV was the only realistic choice for me.  It’s just gravy that the Bolt is working out so well.

YMMV.

Post #1985: Some comments on decaffeination and weight loss.

 

Ironically, one thing I cannot do, without caffeine, is expository writing.

Perhaps the only useful point of this post is that a) I need caffeine and b) it makes me hungrier, some hours later.  Caffeine is no friend when dieting.  That’s my conclusion.  That, despite its direct effect on speeding up your metabolism.  I find that it amps up feelings of hunger, later, relative to how hungry you would have felt, had you not consumed it in the first place.  For me, in the context of dieting, that drawback outweighs any putative effect of speeding up metabolism.

The rest is just detail unlikely to apply to the typical reader.


If I can lose just 15 more pounds, I’ll be overweight.

Source:  The Gummint.  https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmi_tbl2.htm

And that’s good news.  Because it beats being obese, which is where I’ve been for roughly the past four decades.  But that’s water over the dam.  Today, counting from my highest-remembered weight (285?), to yesterday’s gym-dehydrated low (235), I’ve now lost about fifty pounds, in a little over ten months.  BMI-wise (above), I’ve gone from the solid 37 charted above, leftwards on the chart, to be an aspiring 31 BMI.

Just two clicks away from merely being overweight.  Huzzah.


For you, and you alone, I now reveal all my weight-loss secrets.

Alcohol

My weight loss mainly stems from failing to drink a thousand calories of ethanol nightly.  That started in September of last year.

I can therefore recommend giving up heavy drinking, if and as applicable, in favor of abstinence, as a good starting point for weight loss.  For me, weight loss simply ensued.  There was a brief period of rapid “water weight” loss, followed by a slow but steady pace of “real” (i.e., fat etc.) weight loss.

I attribute the sustained, slow weight loss more to improved general health than to the direct effect of foregoing the alcohol calories.  If nothing else, once I quit drinking, I ate more.

TMI.

Long and the short of it is that having one’s liver working well reduces one’s hunger pangs.

And that helps a lot if you’re trying to lose weight.

Who’d have guessed, given the central role of the liver in human metabolism.  /s

Wheat

Wheat’s my frenemy.

(Rant:  Just FYI, I took a dislike to the term only when I spelled it from its pieces (friend and enemy) — so, frienemy — and got the evil red underline of bad on-line spelling.  I don’t grasp why spelling butchery is allowed to accompany creation of the portmanteau word.  Allow stuff like this, and the next thing you know, kids will pronounce Bros. to rhyme with snows, instead of others.).

I used to crave (e.g.) pasta, even as pasta increasingly disagreed with me.  Sometime between last September and this past January, it occurred to me that I should try saying adios to wheat. 

So that’s what I did — mostly.

I guess the issue is how frequently the old me would resort to something like spaghetti or ramen as a meal in itself.  That is, make a quick meal or snack almost purely from carbohydrate.  Call that a starch bomb.

Metabolically, starch-bombing yourself has to knock you somewhat off-kilter.  It may not be as extreme as eating candy bars to quiet a rumbling stomach, but it’s in the same family.  It might be reasonable to expect some blowback down the road, in the form of increased hunger later.

My point being that any resulting weight loss attributable to abstaining from wheat may or may not be due to anything particular to wheat, it could be due simply to easier avoidance of starch-bomb meals.  As, in the past, and for most of my life, my favorite quick meal was real pasta in any of its glorious forms.

While gluten-free pastas exist, they are at best an adequate substitute for real (wheat) pasta.  They are food, but they do not do not exactly whisper “eat me”as I eye the pantry.  They are food in the sense of being a source of calories.  FWIW, my favorite gluten-free pasta is corn-based elbow macaroni from Barilla.  It’s good when freshly cooked but does not refrigerate/reheat well once cooked,   The 12-oz box if it rehydrates to roughly the same volume as the 16-oz package of real pasta, which in turn gives Barilla elbows a light “mouth feel”, which is a plus in a gluten-free pasta.  In any case, it’s a quick meal of sorts, with red sauce and cheese.

At some level, it doesn’t much matter whether wheat has some undefined properties that something-something-something and boom, you’re fat.  Or whether it’s just a case that a ban on wheat greatly reduces my consumption of high-starch meals.  I may eat some wheat, but I won’t buy (e.g.) boxes of real (wheat) pasta, thus ensuring less opportunity and less temptation to go for a quick starch-bomb-type meal.

And that’s good.  I think.  Either way works for me.

That said, it’s a hassle to avoid wheat.  Mostly when eating out.  But I don’t have to avoid every bit of it, as if I had celiac disease.  I just no longer make a meal of it.

 


Caffeine, the world’s favorite drug

Source:  American Chemical Society

Finally, I stopped consuming caffeine somewhere around February of this year.

Caffeine is the joker in the deck.  For me.  YMMV.

It’s the lowest-common-denominator, drug-wise.  It’s everywhere.  For example, the recently-passed revised zoning regulations in the Town of Vienna, VA mandates that any redevelopment of retail space along the Maple Avenue corridor must contain at least one coffee shop for every 20,000 square feet of ground area.

/s (But we do have a lot of coffee shops, in what is nominally a town of population 16K.)

But caffeine, like its big brother speed, has some undesirable metabolic side-effects.  At the very least, it can enable self-abusive behavior by being able to shock you awake chemically, despite being in a state of fatigue or generally poor mental or physical condition.

For sure, caffeine has direct effects that suggest it should help you lose weight.  Caffeine revs up both your nervous system and your metabolism.  Raises blood pressure.  Lowers reaction times.  Speeds digestion and elimination.  The whole shootin’ match runs faster under the influence of caffeine.  Or, at least, mine does.  Which should (and I think does) mean that you burn more calories.  (Pretty sure all of that is true, but I’m not going to check references.)

So what?  Don’t people say your energy will rebound, a few days to a few weeks after you stop all caffeine?  So, over the longer term, caffeine should make no difference one way or the other, for your metabolism.  Shouldn’t it?

That’s what they say, and it may even be true for some.

Not for me, a 65-year-old man.  Not if you mean “rebound back to your prior, caffeinated level”.  My decaffeinated energy level did not return to my prior, caffeinated level.

Instead, I’m slower at all speeds, once I’m decaffeinated and past the detox period.  Absent caffeine, all my gears, mental and physical, seem to have dropped down a notch.

But this may not be such a bad thing, for losing weight.  Even if the main effect of caffeine is to speed up your metabolism (which should help you to lose weight), let me make the case for de-caffeination helping weight loss.

First, I don’t miss the post-caffeine hunger pangs I used to get.  So all that “speed up your metabolism” jazz sounds great, until you realize that means that you’re just going to get that much hungrier, that much sooner, as your body burns through your short-term reserves faster under the influence of caffeine.

But more importantly, all my reactions are more muted when I’m de-caffeinated, including my reaction to being hungry.  Absent caffeine, I don’t so much react to hunger as recognize it, and realize that I should eat something.   Eventually.

I haven’t lost my appetite.  But my hunger no longer screams at me.  It’s more of a nag now.

I have no idea how long this blessed state will last.  I can’t really say exactly what caused it.  But if I could bottle and sell it, I’d be a billionaire.

In any case, weight loss without undue suffering is news to me, as an adult.   Never experienced it before.  (Without weight loss drugs, I mean.  I have no experience of that.)  I attribute the relative ease of weight loss, in part, to not being routinely strung out on caffeine, due to a general “dampening” of feelings of hunger that comes with being fully de-caffeinated.

Alternative, it might be due to a synergy or threshold effect from the combination of no alcohol and no caffeine.

Maybe the Mormons are onto something?

Or maybe it was Dick Gregory.


So there you have it:  I’m uncomfortably numb.

I’m closing in on 50 pounds of weight loss.  Give it another couple of weeks, and I’ll be there for real, and not just glimpsed at my dehydrated lightest.

So far so good.  I don’t seem to be losing much muscle mass, based on the weight machines at the gym.  And I feel better.  Mostly stuff that one would expect. Think about taking off a 50-pound backpack, and you’ll get the gist of it.

Never drinking caffeine has some major downsides.  I’m just plain dumber without caffeine.  So I cheat.  Or, more specifically, I drink some caffeine, occasionally.  Mostly when I’m trying to write something.  As now.

But the big unexpected upside to going caffeine-free (or nearly) seems to be reduced feelings of hunger.  Turning that around, maybe, in hindsight, a caffeine-driven lifestyle adds to the likelihood of overeating.  For some.

For sure, I do not consider caffeine to be a help to dieting, as is sometimes suggested.  For me, it is a hindrance.

Back on task, if I lose fifteen pounds more, I’ll be classified as overweight, not obese, per my body-mass index (BMI).

But I do lot live and die by the BMI table.  Mostly, that’s because I’d have to lose another 60 pounds to achieve normal weight, per BMI.   Like that’s going to happen, absent widespread famine or terminal illness.  For my height, “normal” BMI is less than I weighted when I graduated from high school.

Hey, I’m big-boned.  I’ll settle for “not obese”.

In any case, the only way I can describe it is that this weight loss has been easy, so far.  (I mean, after I got various addictions under control.  After that, it’s been almost effortless.

I just eat “moderately” and I lose weight slowly.  What a concept.  I sure wish this had happened earlier, and I hope it never goes away.  Weight loss without suffering.  What a concept.

When I reach for explanations of this apparent sea-change in me, one explanation is that, when I gave up alcohol last year, something in my brain broke.  I seem to have lost all sense of “craving”.

Not just craving for alcohol, which is fantastic.  (Truly, if I hadn’t lost that craving, I would not have been able to achieve a prolonged period of abstinence.)

But in a classic case of baby and bath water, I seem to have tossed out any sense of “craving” in general.

This makes for a dull(er) life, but is a real asset when it comes to losing weight.

In any case, I seem to have ended up in a state of being … uncomfortably numb?  I’m not blissed-out all the time.  If nothing else, that would be hugely abnormal for me.  Instead, I (e.g.) get hungry, but most of the time I can’t be bothered to do anything about it.

From a weight-loss perspective, that’s ideal.

While 90% of this change that is mental, surely the other half is physical.  (With apologies to Yogi Berra).My metabolism is on a more even keel.  That starts with a lack of ethanol calories, but proceeds from there to a ban on wheat-centered meals like ramen or pasta, leading to fewer starch-only or starch-heavy meals.

And ends with respecting caffeine for the drug that it is.

I do admit, however, that a potential alternative explanation for sustained, seemingly effortless weight loss would be some form of cancerous tumor.  As opposed to my change in lifestyle.

But if so, hey, at least I’ll die thin.

Ba-da-bing.

It has been a bit weird, losing this much weight.  I’ve changed clothing sizes, but that’s to be expected.

I didn’t expect to resize items that I would never have associated with being fat or thin.  Things like my bicycle seat (the butt-to-pedal distance has changed?).  The strap on my bike helmet (my head/chin now has a smaller circumference?)   I’ve had to shorten my watch band.  I didn’t even know I had wrist fat.  Let alone lose enough of it to matter.  But the steel watch strap does not lie.

And yet, this amount of weight loss has been surprisingly far from a life-changer.  Some things are easier.  Again, imagine taking off a 50-pound backpack.  But on the whole, it’s been less of an improvement that you might think.

The biggest disappointment is my skin.  I need to devote an entire post discussing the various snake oil treatments available for stretch marks.

/s. I think.

I feel lighter, yes.  Younger, no.  Guess I’ll have to settle for that.

I gotta go eat something.

Post #1984: “All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door.”

 

Source:  Economist John Kenneth Galbraith (2001). “The Essential Galbraith”, p.186, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

To me, this quote sums up what’s happening with the November 2024 elections, and the takeover of American politics by the frankly pro-dictatorship anti-democratic MAGA forces. Continue reading Post #1984: “All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door.”

Post #1983: Commentary on the recent Presidential debate.

 

Post #1894: Commentary on the NY Times/Siena College poll results.

From my November 2023 post, shown above, regarding a Siena University poll:

Here’s my take on the main message:

Biden’s too old.  

And other stuff, sure.

Weirdly, the main writeups seem to skirt this issue.  But to my eye, this is something that everybody agreed on.

Separately, smears work, disinformation wins. 

...

But if my only alternative to Biden is Trump, then “too old” doesn’t exist.  If Biden’s breathing, I’m voting for him.

Nine months since that Siena U. poll, and I’d say that pretty much nothing has changed.

Luckily, this Presidential race is very much a case of needing to outrun the bear.  You don’t have to be fast, to outrun that bear.  You just have to be faster than the person you’re running against.

And so, thankfully, Biden doesn’t have to be a great candidate for President.  He just has to be a better alternative than Trump.

And I’d say he has that knocked.  For me, if forced to choose between an old guy who struggles to keep his head on straight, but hires the best and brightest, and understands America’s place as leader of the free world, versus a dictator-smooching adulterous shameless liar who hires his relatives for key jobs and seems dead-set on destroying the American system of free and fair elections … I’ll take the old(er) guy any day.

Not much of a defense of the Democratic candidate, but given his opponent, it’s all that’s necessary.