Post #2137: Oh, the price of gold … V

 

Gold is at $3100 $3200 $3300 $3400 / ounce this morning.  Again.

Source:  Kitco, Inc.

The last time gold hit that level was April 21.  Then, it made news.  Now, everybody yawns.  The media won’t mention it until it sets a new record price in today’s dollars.

We’re still just a bit over $100 below the all-time high price of gold, in real (CPI-adjusted) dollars.  That’s by my calculation, based on the price of gold at the end of 1979/start of 1980.  And the BLS CPI calculator.

As a noted in the last post, the previous high (in real terms) occurred during absolutely dreadful economic times — stagflation following two Arab oil embargoes against the U.S.

Now, by contrast, we’re seeing a near-all-time-real-record price for gold, in a world with a basically good economic climate, except for U.S. repeatedly shooting itself in the foot.

If I had to guess what has pushed gold to this price level, I’m betting that the Trump administration will soon have no choice but to start testing the waters on various forms of default on Treasury debt.  Nothing too radical at first.  Maybe floating the idea of forcing T-bill holders to hold that debt for another few months, beyond the term of the bills they hold.

But between gutting the IRS (and essentially declaring open season on tax cheating), extending the existing costly tax cuts, and piling on more tax cuts, failing to find any material “efficiency” savings, and so on — while repudiating any and all international agreements — and threatening the Chair of the Fed — if we now slide into a deep recession (with the resulting automatic ballooning of the Federal deficit — I’m guessing we’re going to end up being unable to finance the Federal debt in conventional ways.

So the economic geniuses of the Trump Administration need a dress-rehearsal now, in anticipation of the coming cash crunch in Treasuries.  After they’ve driven the economy into recession.

Sounds insane, I know.  But insane is what we do now. 

Maybe I’ll earn myself a prison term in the newly rehabbed Alcatraz, just for saying it.  Maybe I’ll be forced to march as part of the spectacle on the next Leader’s Birthday military parade.  Or maybe the 200 trade deals that Trump claims he has already made will somehow save the day.

Or maybe all that bullshit is coming home to roost a lot sooner than anyone would have guessed.

That’s what I think this most recent rise in the price of gold means.  Q3 2025 is when all the economic nonsense that’s gone on so far really starts to hit the fan.  Smart money is finding safe havens other than Treasuries, in anticipation.  And gold, despite its many drawbacks, is one of the few safe havens left.

Post #2129: Why should China accept “JK” from Trump?

Source:  The Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2025.


It is a sad day …

… when I trust the word of the CCP over the POTUS.

But I see no alternative, when the Commander-in-Chief is such a fire hose of lies.

And I’m not alone.  Judging from the state of the markets today, U.S. investors are now relying on the Chinese Communist Party for accurate information regarding U.S. tariffs.  And dismissing the blathering of our President.

If that doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about our Federal government these days, then you’ve clearly drunk the Kool-Aid.


Why should China accept “just kidding” as the end of Trump’s latest foray into useless, punitive tariffs?

It’s pretty clear that whatever-the-hell today’s tariff on China is, it has imposed hardship and disruption on Chinese exporters, and the industries behind those exports.

If there’s no penalty for imposing these ludicrous and thoughtless tariffs, and then trying to bully other countries into accepting them, and then trying to extract concessions under the promise of removing them, and now lying about making progress toward taking them off …

Then, won’t Trump just do this again, whenever he takes a notion to?  Like, if we ever get a calm couple of days in a row, isn’t a new tariff a great way to re-focus the world’s spotlight on Trump?

The now-universal lean-inventory just-in-time-delivery model — where every business entity in the world has substituted sophisticated delivery systems for stockpiles of physical inventory — means that full shelves in the stores are mostly an illusion.  The shelves are full not because there’s a huge warehouse of finished goods somewhere, from which additional product can be drawn, but because the existing system of production and delivery of goods is perfectly matched to average consumer demand.

Have we forgotten the lesson of toilet paper shortages already?  Production is tightly matched to typical demand.  Disrupt either production or demand, and the resulting empty shelves can last for months.  And months.  And months.

Recall the port strike?  Mere rumor of TP shortage resulted in sporadic local outages.  That’s all it took.

If I were China, I might be tempted to try to remind us of that.  It’s not materially different from beating on an untrained animal, to try to get the behavior you desire from it.

Best guess — and this is coming from the CEO’s of Walmart and Target — it would only take a couple of months before entire categories of consumer products would disappear from the U.S. retail shelves.

More importantly, I’d guess that the same time frame applies to Chinese-made inputs to U.S. industry.  At which point, we start layoffs as factories idle waiting for critical components.

Pretty sure it wouldn’t take long before we’d be in a world of hurt.

Sure, the Chinese would be hurting as well, from the loss of exports.  But they seem to have their shit together a whole lot better than the U.S. does, for weathering this particular storm.


Conclusion

My guess is, as long as the POTUS continues to lie about tariffs, the Chinese will keep their distance.

I’m betting they can afford to wait a lot longer than we can.

Bluffs don’t work when everybody knows what cards you actually hold.

Maybe the POTUS gets that.

But maybe the same brilliance that bankrupted casinos is hard at work bankrupting the U.S.

Post #2127: Oh, the price of gold … IV

 

Gold blew through $3100 $3200 $3300 $3400 / ounce this morning.

Source:  Kitco, Inc.

We’re now a little over $100 below the all-time high price of gold, in real (CPI-adjusted) dollars.

The last time the price of gold was at this level, in real terms, was the end of 1979/start of 1980.  Not quite half a century ago. Continue reading Post #2127: Oh, the price of gold … IV

Post #2126: Oh, the price of gold is rising out of sight, III

 

Gold blew through $3100 $3200 $3300 / ounce this morning.

 

As noted in prior posts, an increase in the price of gold is never a good thing.

By my reckoning, we’re now a couple of hundred dollars off the all-time high, in the real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold, in dollars.

My interpretation is that three months of Trumpism managed to do for Russia what 15 years of agitation by the BRICS countries could not.

By reneging on our international commitments, turning on our former allies, aligning ourselves with Russia, and giving an absolutely ignorant crew of knuckleheads complete control over tariffs …

… I do believe we’ve managed to destroy the dollar’s role as the key international currency AND cripple much of our industrial capacity.  In one fell swoop.

Restated, by setting large and rapidly changing tariffs, with no policy goal beyond making The Leader happy, we’ve slit our own throats.

It’s just going to take a few months for that to be completely obvious.

Putin’s ROI is beyond calculation.

Post #2123: Oh, oh, otolith.

 

Yesterday morning I sat up to get out of bed and was dizzy.  Sitting in bed.

I thought, “That’s new”, and then “That’s not good”.

Right on both counts.

See epilogue on vitamin D.  Residual vertigo symptoms faded.  A week-and-a-half later, and it’s like it never happened.


To cut to the …

Vertigo.  An inner-ear problem.  Benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV).  When in doubt, see what the Mayo Clinic says.  And Cleveland Clinic.

You have rocks in your ear.  Little tiny bits of calcium carbonate.  They help form your innate accelerometers.  But sometimes, they break off and bits of them travel.  Particularly if you are old.

If they end up in your circular canals — where your sense of balance hangs out — then, in various ways, the stuff hits the fan, balance-wise.  Anything from instability when standing, to full-out puking-as-the-room-spins.

But, per Mayo, above, one can use the Epley procedure to try to move the offending rock chips back to where they belong.  Or, at least, to where they’ll do no harm.  Or something.


The Epley procedure.

The Epley looks benign enough, per the writeup at the Cleveland Clinic.  Turn your head to one side, lie down, turn head and torso in the other direction, sit back up.  Three of that, and you’re done.

Weirdly, there appear to be at least two reputable versions of the Epley procedure.  I would characterize one of them as emphasizing speed at some phases of the operation (the Cleveland Clinic version), versus a go-slow, wait for the symptoms to clear, then hold-each-pose-for-half-a-minute method (which is how I read the Mayo version).  Citations above.

As the potential puke-er and puke-ee, I chose the Cleveland Clinic get-this-sucker-over-with version of the Epley.  Even with that, I aborted one attempt. Couldn’t follow through on it.  Had to sit up and hope it went away.

What they don’t tell you is that the first maneuver — tilting your head that way, and lying flat — that’s designed to set this whole vertigo thing off, about as hard as it can be set off.  In my case, right on up to — but not passing, thanks to aborting one of the attempts — the puke level.

For me, at some point, doing the Epley maneuver was very much like stifling a gag reflex.  At least, doing it the second and third times was.  Doing it the first, time, you don’t know quite what’s coming.  But you are intentionally causing something solid to strike the extremely sensitive nerve cells in your circular canals — a place where only fluids should abide.  The nerve cells in your inner ear REALLY don’t like that, and they let you know accordingly.

I made it through the recommended three Epleys, start to finish, but I was nauseated and sweating heavily for the next half-hour.

I would not have voluntarily undertaken a fourth.


But first, which ear/side is the problem?

Oh, golly, you’ll know.  Put some pillows on your bed, turn your head 45 degrees to one side, and lay back on your pillows.  (Essentially, do a half-baked version of the first step of the Epley procedure).  If this problem — an otolith — is in that downward-facing ear, this should trigger vertigo.   Be prepared.

Retold:  First figure out if you have this problem, and which side it’s on, by the “lay back on pillow” method just above.  The vertigo was clear as a bell for me, and then some.  And then, proceed to the full Epley, if needed, and if and as able.


A key risk factor

I saw a doctor about it today, and she mentioned that a visit to the dentist is a risk factor for this happening.  Something about the lie-back-and-say-aah position opens up a path for these to little calcium carbonate chips to escape into the circular canals.

I further note that one of the Epley procedure writeups emphasized the importance of hyperextending the neck, for bringing the head at least to fully flat, and beyond flat (hanging off the edge of the bed),within reason, if possible.

Finally, I note that I’ve recently taken to lying down completely flat, in bed, for extended periods.  Basically, I’ve been trying to sleep on my back, without a pillow.  And the morning when this started, I sat up quickly, directly from that position.

And was dizzy.  From an escaped otolith.

Coincidence?  I think not.

I think the moral of the story for me is don’t do that.  Don’t sleep flat on your back, with no pillow, and if you do, don’t go from that position to fully upright in one motion.


R-E-L-I-E-F

Some people get what is described as “immediate relief” from the problem, after doing a set of three Epleys.  It goes away, just like that.

No such luck here.

But the gross symptoms finally disappeared that night.  Sometime in the middle of the night, I stopped getting dizzy if I turned onto my right side.

Once you get comfortable with this, it’s pretty weird.  For example, there’s about a three-second delay between turning over, and getting dizzy.  And then the episode of dizziness stops.  No idea why there’s that little delay, no idea why it stops, but plausibly both are related to the movement of my wandering otolith.

My balance still doesn’t feel A-1.

So what else is new.

(But seriously, there seem to be lingering effects.  Not the room-spinning vertigo of the acute phase (apparently caused by/associated with involuntary eye movements (nystagmus).  But seemingly more balance issues than usual.  Or I’m noticing it more than usual.)


Conclusion

A reminder of frailty is never fun.

I’m trying to take renewed joy in (e.g.) being able to walk around.

But, whatever happens, I just have to live with it.

That’s a fact of life.  Doubly so with age.


Epilogue:  I’ll take some vitamin D with that.

It’s unsurprising that vitamin D might play a key role here, as the same bone-building mechanisms that occur throughout your body also apply to the bones, rocks, and minerals in your inner ear.

Anyway, that’s my vitamin D level, above.  Barely sufficient, as of two days ago.

I realize that one of the risks of eating few calories for weight loss is a high risk of missing critical nutrients.  I realize that vitamin D levels drop in winter.  And this, being roughly the end of winter, should mean that they are about as low as they are going to get.

But how can I have low vitamin D levels, when I eat (a small portion of) salmon a couple of times a week?  If you ask Google for foods that contain a lot of D, salmon is right at the top of the list.

Surprise.   Wild salmon has a fair bit of vitamin D.  Farmed salmon does not.  The assertion that salmon is a good source of vitamin D is based on the USDA data, which in turn are probably so old they predate the widespread practice of salmon farming.

The upshot is that I’ve added few thousand units of vitamin D supplements to my daily routine.

I can’t blame the problem on low vitamin D.  But it surely doesn’t help.  And the lack of D in my diet is cheaply and easily correctable.

Post #2122: The Turing Test Inverted, a.k.a. the Truth-in-AI Act of 2025

 

Twenty years ago, only evil genius super-villains used AI.

I know this from watching The Incredibles (2004) last night.

And when an AI spoke, it sounded all robotic ‘n’ stuff.

This morning, I woke up and decided that wouldn’t be a bad thing, here in 2025.

Not the super-villain part.  We have enough of that going on already.

I’m talking about requiring spoken-language output of AIs to sound “robotic”.  And so require that AI spoken output be easily recognizable to humans as machine-generated speech.

Hence, the need for a Truth-in-AI Act.


Truth-in and commercial speech

Many laws bar deception in various forms of commercial speech.  Truth-in-advertising laws.  Truth-in-lending laws.

Materially mis-representing something you are selling is already against the law.

The Truth-in-AI law would just be another layer of that.  It would say that you can’t send me AI-generated speech without making it clear that it is AI-generated speech.


Cue tape

 

By Birchflow – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=146074295

 

I’m old enough to know why the AI’s speech is so disjointed in The Incredibles.

It harks back to the days when the only way to create fake audio of a person’s voice was to cut-and-paste audio tape recordings of that voice.   Literally snip and tape together carefully selected sections of audio tape.

The result was definitely a sentence — almost surely saying something inappropriate — in the voice of the original tape recording.  But the sound of each word was taken completely out of the original context. 

This is what the oddly lilting speech of the autopilot in The Incredibles was modeled after.

Even today, we have vestiges of “robotic voice” in (e.g.) legacy systems that will send you a security code over the phone.  Each number is pronounced as a stand-alone entity. So that 111 is pronounced one-(pause)-one-(pause)-one.  And not “a hundred and eleven”.


But seriously

Post #2052: A 15-minute podcast summarizing the issues for a proposed Vienna pool/gym.

The power of AI to persuade (and mislead) the masses largely hinges on not being able to tell that the results are AI-generated.

AI already passes the simple version of the Turing test.  You can hold a conversation with one, and not know that you’re not talking to a human).

And, as it turns out, being unable to tell AI from reality is a bad thing.  This is surely true for AI-faked videos and photos.

It’s also true for audio products like fake two-person podcasts, as referenced above.

For free, the Google AI product NotebookLM will produce you an outstanding and persuasive two-person podcast.  Feed it only the information you want it to see, and it will say what you’d like it to say.

I was appalled at how persuasive that free, easily-created two-person podcast was.

But if you took the exact same discussion, and made the AI actors “talk like robots”, it would not be anywhere near as persuasive.  All of the brain-bypassing emotional appeal of the two warm human voices would be lost.

You’d have to rely solely on the logic and sense of the underlying argument.

And I’d say we’re desperately in need of that these days.


Conclusion

If I took horsemeat, and labeled and sold it as hamburger so that I could sell it, I’d be liable for fraud.

But if I take an AI-generated “conversation”, and put that out there as if it were human, so that I can “sell” it to the audience — that’s A-OK?

We have to start dealing meaningfully with AI’s outstanding ability to deceive.

If passing off a horse for a cow is illegal, then passing off an AI for a human should be as well.

No more of this sounding-like-a-human stuff — that’s a good start.  Even if that can only be applied to commercial speech.

Post #2120: Oh, the price of gold is still rising out of sight

 

Gold blew through $3100 $3200 an ounce this morning.

 

As noted in prior posts, an increase in the price of gold is never a good thing.

Looking on the bright side, a good chunk of this last push was merely from dollar going down the toilet. 

That should happen because gold is an internationally-traded commodity.  It’s a global market.  When the value of the dollar falls, the value of gold, expressed in those dollars, rises.

I guess I need to start a countdown or something, as by my calculation, if gold tops $3519 (or so), that will be its all-time high in inflation-adjusted (CPI-adjusted) terms.

So, right now, gold is just (1- $3234 / $3519 =~) 8% below its all time high, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.

I described the economic conditions under which gold set its previous high, in a recent post on this topic:

Post #2112: Oh, the price of gold is rising out of sight

Before that, my most recent prior post on this topic was from half a year ago:

Post #2017: The price of gold is up. That’s never good.

Post #2112: Oh, the price of gold is rising out of sight

 

Oh the price of gold is rising out of sight
And the dollar is in sorry shape tonight
What the dollar used to get us now won’t buy a head of lettuce
No the economic forecast isn’t right
But amidst the clouds I spot a shining ray
I can even glimpse a new and better way
And I’ve devised a plan of action worked it down to the last fraction
And I’m going into action here today.

From:  I’m changing my name to Chrysler, recorded by Arlo Guthrie.


Gold blew through $3100 an ounce this morning.

When the stock market is making new highs, everybody steps up to take credit for it.

But gold?  Nope. Nobody ever takes credit for a rising price of gold.  Given the cheapness and ubiquity of public lies these days, you’d think some prominent braggart would try.  But nobody ever tries to own a rise in the price of gold.   That’s because a rapidly rising price of gold is never good news.  And peaks in the price of gold tend to occur when the 💩 is in the process of hitting the 🚁.

What caught my eye about $3100 is that this has to be getting close to setting a new record for the price of gold in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.  (In the modern era, where the dollar price of gold has been allowed to float.  Post-1970, say.)

If I take the prior price peaks (red arrows I added to the chart above) and use the BLS inflation calculator to express them in 2025 dollars, I find that we’re now just 14% below the all-time high price of gold in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.

So, when Guthrie sang about the rising price of gold, in the context of the 1979 bail-out of Chrysler, following two Arab oil embargoes, the resulting energy crises, two long, deep U.S. recessions, and the near-destruction of the U.S. auto industry with its lack of energy-efficient cars, in a context of persistent double-digit rates of inflation … the price of gold, in real terms, was somewhat higher than it is today.

I’m trying to take some comfort in that.  Either things aren’t as bad now, as they were then.  Or they aren’t as bad, yet.

Either way: Eat, drink and be merry.

My most recent prior post on this topic was from half a year ago:

Post #2017: The price of gold is up. That’s never good.

Post #2103: This and that.

 

Well,

a)  this is a blog, after all, and

b) if the President can flip flop daily on tariffs, then

c) it’s hard to see the shame in having a mere blog post that wanders a bit.


1:  AI replacement theory

1: Every human job that can be replaced by AI will be.

2: Every human job that requires speech and reasoning alone is at immediate risk of being replaced by AI.

3: All other human occupations will be condensed to the portions that can’t feasibly be replaced by AI.

 

These are laws of economics, not computer science.  New technologies have been doing this sort of thing since the start of the industrial revolution.  There’s nothing about this that’s entirely unique to AI.

This time, instead of technology making your biceps obsolete, now it’s making your brain obsolete.  The most important difference between the AI revolution and what has gone before is that this time, they’re coming for my job.

I just can’t quite get my big brain around the fact that my big brain is obsolete.

It’s going to take me a while — like a few posts — to work out the ramifications of that, to my own satisfaction.

If nothing else, if this does what I think it’s going to do, to “knowledge workers” generically, that’s got to be nothing but bad news for the real estate market here in Northern Virginia.  Pile on a dip in Federal employment, and, as I live here, I should pay attention to what’s happening with AI.

Even though I’d much rather not.

 


2: My garden is a mess

Yonder it sits, as of late fall of last year (left), and as of about 5 minutes ago (right).

In theory, this should be some sort of planned operation.  E.g., I want to grow such-and-such, in this-and-so quantity.  And so on.

In practice, I can’t even get that far.

Instead, this has turned into a game of fixing the worst errors, then seeing what’s left.

First, I need to get the sun-rotting plastic out of my garden, and disposed of.  But, as I (intentionally!) made the raised beds by recycling plastic coroplast campaign signs, removing those plastic sides effectively destroys all the existing raised beds. 

But, second, I always intended these beds to be temporary, and, ultimately, I figured the dirt would fill some of the worst “valleys” in my back yard.  So that’s what I’m doing — dismembering the side-less corpses of these raised beds and using the dirt to fill the largest and most annoying valleys in my lawn.

(These “valleys” are the aftermath of the installation of the ground loop for the ground source heat pump, and they continue to sink, ever-so-gently, 20 years after that was installed.  It really does not surprise me that this method (parallel trenches 6′ deep) seems relatively rarely used, compared to drilling a vertical well for the ground loop.  I already shoveled 10 tons of dirt trying to fill those valleys the first time.)

Third, I’m re-using the concrete corner blocks from the defunct low beds to build fewer, taller, better-placed raised beds.  I don’t actually want the resulting raised beds, but they are a place to store the concrete corner blocks, and most importantly, to store some of the soil that’s in the former plastic-sided beds.

Interesting calculation there. When I started these beds, I brought in 10 cubic yards of 50/50 mixed topsoil and compost.  And now, when I do the arithmetic on what’s left (bed dimensions x bed depth = volume of soil in bed), come up with about 5 cubic yards.  Which is just about exactly what I ought to have, if all the organic matter (the compost) in the original mix has rotted and so returned to being C02.  The upshot being that, at a density of about a ton per cubic yard, I’d have to shovel 5 tons of dirt, to get rid of these beds.  Not clear I’m up to that task any more.   Not clear that I’m not.

So, as stupid as it was to have to move a raised bed once, I am, in effect, moving them twice.  But the second time is largely to get rid of their dirt.  It’s a planned-life-cycle kind of thing.

And the new garden plan, such as it is, involves growing more stuff that neither the deer nor the bugs want to eat. But that my wife and I do.

That’s a very short list of crops.  That’s about as far as I’ve gotten on my garden plan for 2025.


3: Bee hotels, the final chapter begins

I am putting up my native (mason, orchard) bee hotels for the last time.  Mine are bundles of 6″ (or so) bamboo tubes, with smooth-cut ends (cut while green, or commercial pre-sanded cutoffs), with inside diameter around 3/8″ inch.  Above, I’m using Virginia clay to seal off one end of each tube.  When I have those sealed and dry to my satisfaction, those bundles of nesting tubes will be hung securely over the site of the emergence box (Post G25-001), ready for spring to commence.  And for the female mason bees to use at their convenience.  Next spring, the (now filled, hopefully) bundles of nesting tubes will have to be taken down and placed in next year’s bee emergence box.

Post #2098: If they ever get serious about cutting the Federal deficit …

 

It’s not as if cutting Federal spending is some brand-new idea.  It’s not as if nobody has noticed the Federal budget deficit before.


But if the current regime were serious about the budget deficit …

The current push to fire Federal workers is all about purging the bureaucracy.  This is standard operating procedure for autocrats.  You won’t see a modern autocratic takeover of a former democracy without it.

In case you were confused, this explains why (e.g.) Musk et al. keeps going out of their way to insult Federal workers gratuitously, why the firings are so slap-dash, and why the dollar total of claimed savings seems to be treated as a joke, not worth checking for accuracy.

All of that, because if your primary goal is simply to purge the bureaucracy so that you can replace it with your loyal partisan hacks, none of that matters.  Heck, insulting Federal workers is a feature, not a bug.

It’s not about making any material savings in tax dollars, because everyone who has even the faintest idea where the money goes realizes that the dollars you can save by reducing the federal workforce itself are small.  Most of what the Federal government does is make transfer payments.  Take taxes from some, give that money to others.

Source:  SSA.

For example, Social Security is 20% of the Federal budget.  The entire overhead of Social Security — Federal workers, contractors, their offices and equipment — accounts for about 0.5% of Social Security costs.  The other 99.5% is payments to the aged, blind, and disabled.  Administrative costs of Social Security have been below 1% of total costs since 1989, so this isn’t exactly some new development.

Sure, Republicans get their jollies cutting the EPA.  And, apparently, they’ve now jumped the shark on “starve the beast”, and simply plan to reduce IRS employment until the government is no longer able to collect taxes, and so goes from starvation to bankruptcy.

Source:  Citations given below.

But the bottom line is that compensation of civilian employees (i.e., not the uniformed services) amounted to $271B in 2023 (reference:  Congressional Budget Office).  Or, about 4% of total Federal outlays of around $6.75T (reference:  US Treasury).

By reference, the current annual budget deficit runs around $2T per year.  You can fire them all, and it’ll hardly make a dent in the deficit.

Worse, there are some areas where the Federal government really does hire people to do the work, not just to move the money.  But the three agencies with the largest civilian Federal workforce are Defense, Veteran’s Affairs, and Homeland Security.

If you are wondering why the Veteran’s Administration is on that list, it’s largely because the VA runs more than 1000 health care facilities, including (as I recall) about 160 hospitals.  That, along with many outpatient clinics, skilled nursing facilities.  And about 150 national cemeteries, as veterans retain a burial benefit, and can claim the right to have their remains buried in a VA cemetery.


Don’t confuse “purging the bureaucracy as part of a power grab” with a genuine effort to balance the budget.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Executive Office of Management and the Budget (OMB), the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and (I think) the Congressional Research Service (CRS) all have created extensive lists of options for reducing the Federal deficit.  Not to mention all the various private-sector entities that have been chiming in on this for years.

Even the most superficial study shows why those remain options, and have not been implemented.

The CBO web page on this issue (https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options) lists so many options that they give you a search function, with limits.

Let’s say you’re in a mood to think big, and you’re only interested in items with at least half-a-trillion-dollars in deficit reduction (over a ten-year budget window).   No problem.  Above, you see the first dozen such half-trillion-dollar items on the CBO list.

Bear in mind that the CBO-listed dollar amounts are for a ten-year budget window.  So, with the deficit currently running around $2T a year, you’d be need for a total of $20T in savings, off this list, to claim to come close to balancing the budget.

Lesson 1:  You’d have to do all of the above, and then some, to come close to balancing the budget.

Lesson 2:  Notice how many lines say “waste, fraud, and abuse”.  None of them.  Instead, essentially every item consists of either raising taxes, or shifting costs to the states, businesses, or citizens.

And the rest …

You can find similar lists of potential savings from GAO. 

As if this writing, the OMB website appears to have been wiped and replace with pro-MAGA pap.  It’s now a great source for pretty pictures of the President and First Lady.  It no longer appears to offer any information whatsoever to the public.

 

Conclusion

None of this is news to anyone who has ever given this 10 minutes’ worth of research.  Surely, the MAGAts who’ve taken over the Federal government know this.  And therefore anyone can infer that, whatever they’re hoping to accomplish with “DOGE” chaos, addressing the budget deficit isn’t one of them.

It’s just icing on the cake that these folks now have unfettered access to every Federal tax return.  What could possibly go wrong with that?

The Federal government used to have rules.  For reasons.

Now, apparently, whatever you can grab, its yours.  Just make up a plausible-sounding reason, and you’re good to go.