Post #1394: The U.S. CDC: Argh.

I saw this headline in today’s Washington Post.  It appears that the U.S. CDC is almost ready to maybe sort of recommend that you wear a good mask, not just any mask.

I guess, as pictured above, they’re looking back on the entire history of the pandemic, assessing where we now sit, and asking whether or not they might, possibly, at this stage, as a last resort, recommend an easy, cheap, and effective method for radically reducing the population’s exposure to COVID-19.

Hmmm.

If you read this blog, you know I’ve been strongly in favor of use of high-filtration masks for a long time.  Since before the CDC even recommended wearing masks.  Just search the “mask” category and you’ll see what I mean

With this latest near-pronouncement from the U.S. CDC, I hardly even know where to start.  In the interest of saving time, I’ll skip the rant, and remind you of a few useful things.

1:  An N95 isn’t just better than a standard blue procedure mask, it’s vastly better.

2:  If you insist on wearing a cheap blue procedure mask, at least learn the “tucked and tied” technique.

3:  Leave the KN95s on the shelf.


1:  An N95 isn’t just better than a standard blue procedure mask, it’s vastly better.

Here, I’m just repeating a part of Post #938, from almost exactly one year ago.

Here’s a simple question.  Even if you think you really, truly understand masks, take 15 seconds to see if you can get the correct answer.

Question:  An N95 respirator (mask) filters out 95% of airborne particles.  A procedure mask with ear loops filters out about 30% of airborne particles.  (That’s based on an actual test of those masks as published more than a year ago in JAMA).   Let me loosely call that an “N30” mask.  Roughly speaking, how much better is an N95 mask, compared to an N30 ear-loop procedure mask?

  1. Obviously, it’s about three times better, because 30 x 3 = 90, which is close to 95.
  2. Obviously, it’s about 14 times better, because (100 -30)/(100 – 95) = 70 / 5 = 14.
  3. Obviously, this must be a trick question.

The answer is B, it’s 14 times better.  Why?  The mask rating (N30, N95) shows you what the mask keeps out.  But the viral load you inhale isn’t about what the mask keeps out.  It’s about what the mask lets through.  It’s about 1-minus-the-mask-rating.  And in any given situation, the ear-loop surgical mask will let through and expose you to 70% of what’s floating around.  While the N95 exposes you to 5%.  And 70/5 = 14.

In case you still don’t quite get it, let me do the math the other way.  How much better is that N30 ear-loop surgical mask, compared to wearing no mask at all?

Question 2:  Assume that you need to inhale 100 copies of COVID-19, at a sitting, in order to get infected.  Assume that you are going to inhale one cubic meter of air, at a sitting.  How dense can the COVID-19 particles in the air be, before you inhale enough to get infected, based on wearing:

  • No mask.
  • N30 mask (ear-loop surgical mask, worn loosely)
  • N95 respirator.

Answer:

Question 2, same math, but rephrased.  Suppose there’s a room filled with COVID-19 aerosol.  Suppose that, without a mask, you can sit in that room for no more than 10 minutes before you get infected.  How much more time does your cheap, blue ear-loop surgical mask buy you?  That is, how long could you sit in that room and remain uninfected, wearing an ear-loop procedure mask? And then, how long wearing an N95 respirator?

Answer:

  • No mask — 10 minutes.
  • N30 mask (ear-loop surgical mask, worn loosely) – 14 minutes (10/.70)
  • N95 respirator — 200 minutes (10/.05).

That cheap blue mask buys you a whopping four additional minutes of time, before you get infected.  Which not only makes my point, but which shows you why you want to stay away from close, crowded situations, mask or no mask.

Sure, a loosely-fitting ear-loop surgical mask is better than no mask at all.  But not by a whole lot, in the overall scheme of things.

I hope you now get why I’m so persnickety about masks.  The difference between a good mask and a poor mask isn’t a little bit.  It’s a lot. It’s an order-of-magnitude difference in performance.


Tucked-and-tied.

Still wearing those 20-cent blue procedure masks that you bought a year ago?  Can’t bring yourself to pay a whopping 89 cents each for genuine 3M N95 respirators, even though the 3Ms are good for hundreds of hours of normal use before the filter material clogs? Or maybe just just plain don’t like N95s of any sort, despite the wide variety available?

Then you should at least learn the tucked-and-tied technique.  By itself, this improves the filtration ability of the typical surgical style mask from roughly an N30 to roughly an N60.

Takes a few seconds to do.  Costs you nothing.  Doubles the effectiveness of the mask.  What’s not to like?

Or watch that directly in YouTube.


In the U.S., KN95 is a style of mask, not a legally-enforceable filtration standard.

The CDC will be doing nobody any favors if they recommend using an N95 or KN95 mask.  I’ll go so far as to say that adding KN95 to the recommendation is simply an incompetent mistake.

In the U.S., N95 is a U.S. standard maintained by the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH).  A NIOSH-certified N95 respirator must fit tightly to the face, using straps that pass behind the head (never ear loops), and, when properly fitted, filter out at least 95% of of the hardest-to-filter particles (0.3 micron).

Masks may then be further certified for medical use by the FDA.  Masks certified for medical use must meet additional standards, including resistance to splashes.  It is completely possible to have a NIOSH-certified N95 that is not suited for medical use.  Most or all NIOSH-certified N95s sold for industrial use — such as the ones you can easily purchase at your local Home Depot or other hardware store — filter to the N95 standard, but are not certified for medical use.

In the U.S., KN95 means nothing.  It’s a Chinese standard, and has no legal meaning in the U.S.  Anybody can make a mask and sell it as a “KN95” mask.

Practically speaking, in the U.S., KN95 refers to a style of mask, not to a guaranteed level of filtration.  A mask that will fold flat, unfold into some sort of cone shape, and use ear loops rather than behind-the-head straps.

I have tried several KN95 masks over the course of the pandemic, and none of them worked well enough to use.  They all fit too loosely, allowed too much air to leak around the face seal, allowed my glasses to fog, and were generally insecure due to loose-fitting ear loops.

My point is, the things you can buy in the drug store labeled “KN95” are in no way a substitute for a NIOSH-certified N95 respirator. Not even close.  I sincerely hope that some CDC bureaucrats will get out from behind their desks, walk into a few hardware and drug stores, buy a few packs of what are routinely sold as “KN95” masks in the U.S., and assess them for air-tightness and likely filtration ability.  And come to the realization that, as I just said, the typical KN95 in America is not even in the same league as a NIOSH-certified N95.

In theory, the FDA had, at one time, a list of certified Chinese manufacturers whose masks could be used in U.S. hospitals under an emergency use authorization.  The FDA has long-since cancelled that EUA, and so, technically speaking, there are no KN95 masks certified for medical use in the U.S.

The bottom line is that, for the average consumer, you have no idea what you are buying when you purchase a KN95 mask. For myself, at least, every one I tried failed due to obvious air leaks.  And that doesn’t even begin to address the actual filtration ability of the cloth itself, which you have no way of testing, and which was never tested or certified by an U.S. agency.

Maybe if you’ve never worn a properly-fitted N95, you wouldn’t know the difference.  But once you’ve worn an N95, and realize that absolutely no air is supposed to leak around the mask, you will instantly reject any hardware-store KN95s on the basis of lack of air-tight fit.

If you must use an ear-loop mask, I’d recommend a made-in-Korea KF94, such as the LG Airwasher.  (KF94 is a filtration standard more-or-less equivalent to N95 in terms of particulate filtration.)  If it’s genuinely made in Korea, that provides a known filtration ability, and the ear loops are adjustable for tight fit.  Of all the masks that I asked my daughter to try, that was by far the most preferred (Post #1246, What mask should I wear?  We have a winner).

And at the end of the day, it’s all about wearing the best mask that you are willing to wear.

Post #G21-056: First frost date trend and an outdated farmers’ market law in Vienna VA

 

Over the past two-and-a-half decades, our fall first-frost date has been getting later.

That’s not really a surprise.  Global warming and all that.  Temperatures are rising slightly in most of North America.  Among other things, the USDA hardiness zones have been shifting consistently northward.

The surprise here is the rate at which our first-frost date is changing.  In Fairfax County, it’s been getting later at the rate of about one day per year.  That may not not sound like much, but it means that our typical first-frost date is more than three weeks later than it was back in the 1990s.

I found that to be a surprisingly rapid change, so I thought I’d post it.

And then, maybe if I’m still feeling the math, I’ll work up the likelihood that this year will have the latest first-frost data on record for Fairfax County, VA.  But muse of math seems to have abandoned me, so that will have to be a separate Part II of this post. Continue reading Post #G21-056: First frost date trend and an outdated farmers’ market law in Vienna VA

Post #1125: Bullet voting

What do these things have in common?

Two years ago, in Vienna Town Council elections, supporters for the two pro-development candidates reminded voters that they didn’t have to vote for three Town Council members.  They could vote for just two.

This year, the non-incumbent candidate is reminding voters that they don’t have to vote for three Town Council members.  They can vote for just one.

Every year, in Town Council elections, the vote total is less than three times the number of voters.  Even though every voter may select up to three candidates on the ballot.


Continue reading Post #1125: Bullet voting

Post #G21-013: Ball canning lids are back in stock.

The Canning Lid Shortage of 2021 may be over.  For now, at least.

I heard a rumor, via my wife, that canning supplies were back in stock in the  southern Maryland town where a friend of hers lives.  The local hardware store there hung a big banner in the window to advertise that they had canning jars in stock again.

Today, I decided to check my local grocery store.  And sure enough, what was a moth-eaten display of 2020 leftovers a week ago is now perfectly and fully stocked. Continue reading Post #G21-013: Ball canning lids are back in stock.

Post #1020: PriUPS

This post is prompted by a recent article on Texans using their hybrid vehicles as electrical generators.  This being Texas, of course the vehicle in question is a pickup truck, in particular, the Ford F150 hybrid pickup.

And so, in 2021, Texan F150 hybrid owners are finding out what Prius owners have known since at least 2005:  A hybrid car makes an excellent backup generator.  In this post, I’ll lay out the simplest approach to using your Prius (or similar full hybrid) as an emergency generator. Continue reading Post #1020: PriUPS

Post #938: Yet another series of posts on masks, part one

I posted something yesterday, chiding people for wearing cheap face masks, and in particular for wearing them poorly.  Apparently I hit a nerve with more than a few people, and I’ve been challenged to offer some practical advice.

What you are going to get next on this website is a series of posts on masks.  Solely from the standpoint of protecting yourself, not from the public health standpoint of protecting others.  Starting with some straight-up “buy this” practical advice, before I go off on a deep dive on the whys and wherefores.

But because most people don’t grasp the basic math of masks, I have to do the math first.  And that’s because mask ratings and mask performance tests hide the true relative risk of various types of masks.

 If you just want to get to the quick advice, just skip to the next section.  But you really ought to try to answer the question below.


Mask ratings hide the true relative risk of poor masks  versus good masks.

Here’s a simple question.  Even if you think you really, truly understand masks, take 15 seconds to see if you can get the correct answer.

Question:  An N95 respirator (mask) filters out 95% of airborne particles.  A procedure mask with ear loops filters out about 30% of airborne particles.   Let me loosely call that an “N30” mask.  Roughly speaking, how much better is an N95 mask, compared to an N30 ear-loop procedure mask?

A)  Obviously, it’s about three times better, because 30 x 3 = 90, which is close to 95.

B)  Obviously, it’s about 14 times better, because (100 -30)/(100 – 95) = 70 / 5 = 14.

C)  Obviously, this must be a trick question.

The answer is B, it’s 14 times better.  Why?  The mask rating (N30, N95) shows you what the mask keeps out.  But the viral load you inhale isn’t about what the mask keeps out.  It’s about what the mask lets through.  It’s about 1-minus-the-mask-rating.  And in any given situation, the ear-loop surgical mask will let through and expose you to 14 times as much viral load as the 95 mask.  Because 70% of what’s in the air is 14x as much as 5% of what’s in the air.

In case you still don’t quite get it, let me do the math the other way.  How much better is that N30 ear-loop surgical mask, compared to wearing no mask at all?

Question 2:  Assume that you need to inhale 100 copies of COVID-19, at a sitting, in order to get infected.  Assume that you are going to inhale one cubic meter of air, at a sitting.  How dense can the COVID-19 particles in the air be, before you inhale enough to get infected, based on wearing:

  • No mask.
  • N30 mask (ear-loop surgical mask, worn loosely)
  • N95 respirator.

Answer:

Edit 1/15/2021:  Question 2, same math, but rephrased.  Suppose there’s a room filled with COVID-19 aerosol.  Suppose that, without a mask, you can sit in that room for no more than 10 minutes before you get infected.  How much more time does your cheap, blue ear-loop surgical mask buy you?  That is, how long could you sit in that room and remain uninfected, wearing an ear-loop procedure mask? And then, how long wearing an N95 respirator?

Answer:

  • No mask — 10 minutes.
  • N30 mask (ear-loop surgical mask, worn loosely) – 14 minutes (10/.70)
  • N95 respirator — 200 minutes (10/.05).

Yep, that cheap blue mask buys you a whopping four additional minutes of time, before you get infected.  Which not only makes my point, but which shows you why you want to stay away from close, crowded situations, mask or no mask.

Sure, a loosely-fitting ear-loop surgical mask is better than no mask at all.  But not by a whole lot, in the overall scheme of things.

I hope you now get why I’m so persnickety about masks.  To the point of making my own, so I can be sure of what I’m putting on my face (Post #807, Post #780), and trying to test them (Post #790).  And why I continue to be irked about the inability of citizens to purchase true N95 respirators.  The difference between a good mask and a poor mask isn’t a little bit.  It’s a lot. It’s an order-of-magnitude difference in performance.

Edit:  And I’ll go you one better.  In at least one hospital here in Northern Virginia, the nurses serving the COVID-19 ward wear half-face N100/P100 respirators. Like the one below.  Because if you’re really heavily exposed, allowing even 5% of viral particles past your respirator just won’t cut it.

Source:  Amazon.com.

 


If you just want some quick advice on a reasonably good mask to wear.

I’m not going to go even one inch into all the details.  Fact is, there is a mask, that you can buy, that is easy to wear, and that did very well in a realistic test, by real scientists, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.  In terms of some quick advice, on what to wear, that’s about as bulletproof as it gets.

The recent test of masks published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that two-layer nylon masks filtered out about 80% of airborne particles, once the masks had been washed (Post #924, or you can try to pull up the tables in the JAMA article itself).

Because this was actual scientific research, they specified the mask fully as: “(1) a 2-layer woven nylon mask (54% recycled nylon, 43% nylon, 3% spandex) with ear loops (Easy Masks LLC) tested with an optional aluminum nose bridge and nonwoven filter insert in place.”

Click here to buy those exact masks from the manufacturer’s website.  (To be clear, I have no financial interest in this whatsoever.  Also, the JAMA test achieved near-80-percent filtration without use of the nonwoven insert.)

I honestly don’t think there is anything unique about those masks, within that specification.  Except that they are made correctly.  If you go to the website, you will see that they are generously cut, and cover the face from throat to eyes, ear-to-ear.  And that they make them in different sizes, and they tell you how to measure your face, to choose the right mask.  And they make small ones for kids.

If I had to bet, I’d say that this particular North Carolina firm’s masks were chosen because the principal author and all of his colleagues are from North Carolina.  And because the manufacturer seems to do everything more-or-less correctly.

At some point, I’ll belabor exactly why this is a reasonable choice.  But for now:

The upshot is, based on their cheapest mask, for under $20 (including shipping), you can get two copies of the mask tested in that JAMA article.  It’s roughly an N80 after washing.  You can reduce your exposure to airborne virus 3.5-fold, compared to a standard ear-loop surgical mask. 

With no fear of counterfeits.  With an actual legit test of that exact mask, on the books.  Easy-on, easy-off.  I’m sure if you did your homework, you could find well-fitting two-layer nylon masks for less.  But at some point, it’s not a lot of money, given what’s at stake.

Is this the best mask you could possibly use? No.  You can see where this sits on the scale of risk, in the graph below (redone from above).  At least you can see the difference without using a ruler to measure the bar.  But is this a substantial upgrade, if you’re still using disposable ear-loop surgical masks?  Yes, the odds are overwhelming that it substantially out-performs a blue disposable ear-loop mask.

Be sure to wash these before you wear them.  Filtration improves greatly after washing.

And if you insist on using up that pack of blue masks that you bought, look into the tied-and-tucked method for improving the fit and filtration of those masks, in this YouTube video.

Post #924: Mask test published in JAMA

A recent article in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) performed a sophisticated test of several face masks.  The results had a few surprises.  I thought I might take the opportunity to repeat a few key results, and then, in a separate posting, maybe compile all the presumably legitimate masks tests that have been published.  You don’t want to make too much out of any one test, but this one appears to be about as realistic and accurate as you are likely to find. Continue reading Post #924: Mask test published in JAMA

Post #910: Virginia is a right-to-dry state? (Corrected! Again!)

If you look for graphic images of clotheslines, you inevitably get a page of crap like the image to the left.  Clothes lines are stereotyped as old-fashioned, or hicksville, or as the case of the one at the left, both.  With a side-order of sexism.

 

 

And yet, indoor dryers are such energy hogs that outdoor clothes lines have received legally protected status in nineteen states.  These are the so-called “right to dry” states.  In those states, a homeowners’ association cannot ban the use of clotheslines.  And this pro-outdoor-drying advocacy group gives links to the enabling legislation in all of them.  (Of course there’s an advocacy group for that.) Continue reading Post #910: Virginia is a right-to-dry state? (Corrected! Again!)