All my various postings tracking the COVID-19 pandemic through the end of 2022.
Warning: This post uses language that some may find offensive.
Yeah, the paint is somewhat dryer. Today it appears to be drying slightly faster than it was yesterday. There’s still no clear confirmation that this is anything but the paint simply drying of its own accord. The Administration remains unable to state clearly that the paint is now significantly dryer than it was. Continue reading Post #1001: Rock bottom.
Today’s numbers. Looks pretty good.
But not good enough. They aren’t good enough, as they currently exist, to prevent a fourth wave of COVID, from the U.K. variant.
But don’t freak out just yet. FWIW, my calculation is that if we merely stay the course — keep vaccinating at the current rate, maintain existing COVID hygiene — the inevitable spread of the U.K. variant will merely cause a slowdown in our recovery, and need not cause a fourth U.S. COVID wave.
Details follow.
Continue reading Post #1000: The simple arithmetic of the U.K. coronavirus variant
If and only if she has been fully vaccinated. And invite anybody you know who’s already recovered from COVID.
Continue reading Post #999: Please invite Grandma to your Superbowl party.
And nobody notices!
The US is now seeing less than half the number of new COVID cases per day that it saw at the peak! Ditto! Continue reading Post #998: North Dakota hits 10 cases/ 100,000/ day!
Edit 2/7/2021: The cat’s now out of the bag. Today’s Washington Post showed a huge spike in deaths. A footnote reads: “The spike on February 4 is due to Indiana’s inclusion of 1,507 historical deaths that were identified through an audit of death records and positive test results.” I had a reader email me to point out the same thing.
Using Indiana as the template, I can look at the graphs of state mortality data published in the 2/7/2021 Washinhton Post and spot similar obvious reporting artifacts in other states, including at least DE, SC, IA, NE). And those are just the ones that are obvious. That would not count any revisions that were subtle.
Bottom line: For whatever reason, it seems to take state Vital Statistics departments a month to look over their death certificate accounts and make any adjustments. And what we’re seeing with the ongoing high death counts. The resolution of high deaths vs falling new cases and hospitalizations is that the deaths aren’t new. They’re accounting adjustments. Give it another week, and the reported daily deaths should plummet.
Original post follows:
The seven-day moving average of reported COVID-19 daily new cases peaked in the U.S. on 1/8/2021. Every day, I look at the COVID deaths data. It should have peaked by now, and started following the new cases down. But it hasn’t. This caught my eye because I’ve been expecting a decline in deaths, as a simple and direct consequence in the decline in new cases. Continue reading Post #997: Deaths data, the more you look, the odder it gets
Source: Calculated from NY Times Github COVID data repository, data reported through 2/5/2021.
Cases are now down 50% from the peak. The faster rate of decline that appeared to start circa 2/1/2021 continues.
New York leads the way in faster rate of decline. Not sure if that’s significant or not. Continue reading Post #996: Current trend continues
My daughter is due to return to William and Mary this weekend, so it’s time for me to start focusing on colleges again, starting with the COVID-19 situation at W&M.
As an aside, she’s taking a whole-house humidifier with her, for her apartment suite. I just happened to have a spare one around, new in the box, owing to the analysis of Post #894. In addition to the two that I’m currently running in my house. Continue reading Post #995: William and Mary, off to a charmingly mediocre start this semester
Source: Calculated from NY Times Github COVID data repository, data reported through 2/4/2021.
New COVID-19 cases per 100/000 / day are just shy of half the level they were at the 1/8/2021 peak. Continue reading Post #994: Now 48% below peak.
This article on herd immunity in India was published in today’s Washington Post. I thought I’d bring it to your attention. Not just for the content regarding herd immunity as the likely explanation of the current state of COVID in India. But also for an official estimate of total U.S. infections that seems just slightly lower than the one I have been using. Continue reading Post #993: A couple of bits of confirming evidence on herd immunity
Source: Calculated from NY Times Github COVID data repository, data reported through 2/3/2021.
Seems like state after state is having some kind of data reporting issue these days. Lumps of new COVID cases keep showing up here and there. As labeled above.
Recall that Virginia reported a modestly large jump in cases 1/17/2021. They explained it when I emailed and asked (Post #964). Texas saw a big one-day increase just a couple of days ago (Post #988), well-explained on their dashboard at the time.
Today it’s North Carolina’s turn: Continue reading Post #992: Serial data catchups.