Source: NY Times Github data repository, data reported through 11/27/2020.
This is one of those seemingly simple 2+2=4 analyses. In this case, it’s literally 8*10 > 70.
The arithmetic isn’t rocket science. Anybody can do that. My only value-added here has been in keeping an eye on the situation, and realizing why that arithmetic might matter.
Right now, 10% of the population of North Dakota has been formally diagnosed with COVID-19. As of data reported through 11/27/2020, they’ve had 77,242 known cases. That’s out of a population of about 760,000 (per the US Census Bureau). Or (77,242/760,000 = ~) 10%.
A 10/25/2020 publication by CDC staff says that, best estimate, on average, 8 people have had COVID-19 for every one that has been diagnosed.
IF CDC staff are right, and IF that US average applies to the US Midwest, then North Dakota has probably achieved COVID-19 herd immunity. Or is close to it. And much of the US Midwest has or will be following suit in the near future.
Obviously, that’s two big ifs. But anybody can follow the math. That’s 8*10% = 80%, and that’s higher than the 70% conventionally thought to be required to achieve herd immunity to COVID-19.
Oh, and note the peaks on all the curves at the top of the graph above.
Discussion follows. This brings together several points that I’ve brought up over the past two months or so. Continue reading Post #901: Maybe ND really has achieved herd immunity.