Category: Non-disposable

Posts that may have some sort of permanent value, or that I consider to be the best of what I have posted here.

Post #308: The tear-down boom (again), and the McLeanification of Vienna

The main point of this article is to show you a few graphics that I stumbled across.  So let me get that out of the way up front.  I’m not sure there’s a lot of point to this posting beyond that, other than quantifying what you already know:  They sure are building a lot of big houses in Vienna.  And, at the end, I suggest one possible change in zoning policy:  Letting them cut those big houses in half — as duplexes — would provide a type of less-expensive family-oriented housing that is really getting scarce here in Vienna.

The data:  Single family homes for sale

Per Redfin (with full attribution and acknowledgement of copyright), below is a map of single-family houses for sale in Vienna VA.   I’ve followed that with equivalent maps for Oakton, Fairfax City,  Falls Church, and McLean. These are followed by table showing relevant data for each location.

Take a minute to study the dollar values on the maps, or on the summary table following the maps. Scan for houses under $1M and under $500K.  Do the dollar values for Vienna seem a bit “rich”, compared to your understanding of these communities?

Continue reading Post #308: The tear-down boom (again), and the McLeanification of Vienna

Post #294: Another empty storefront filled, and the ghost of Sandy Spring bank is exorcised

This is a brief follow Post #278, regarding the empty retail space next to the Leslie’s Pool store on Maple.  I was curious as to why that storefront had been empty for such a long time.  But, in fact, as outlined Post #278, Sandy Spring Bank (the former tenant) was still paying the rent and trying to sublet the space.

Now, a veterinary clinic/animal hospital would like to move into that space.  This will be discussed at the 8 PM Wednesday June 12 meeting of the Planning Commission.  Materials on that topic are posted at this link.

Oddly, while the advertisement for the space (see Post #278 above) says that it only has 10 parking places, as far as the Town of Vienna is concerned, the entire building is parked as a whole, without division between the two tenants.  This, according to the materials posted at the link above.  Thus, as far as the Town is concerned, the entire complex (Leslie’s Pool and the new veterinary clinic) have adequate parking for the proposed commercial use.

Presumably the space will not be vacant much longer.

Post #285: A break from MAC to talk about something even more depressing

I finally have a week without a MAC-oriented public meeting, and I’m going to take this opportunity to lay out my plan for stopping and reversing global warming, within our children’s lifetimes.

Sufficient warning

If you don’t believe that global warming is real, just don’t bother to read this one.  If you have some sort of happy fantasy that global warming will be good for the U.S.A., again, just move along.  And if you think this can be easily addressed with anything short of drastic measures, likewise.

Also, I’m going to do this one without citation as to source of information.  If there’s sufficient interest I’ll go back and document everything I say in this posting. Continue reading Post #285: A break from MAC to talk about something even more depressing

Post #278: The former Sandy Spring Bank location

At the last Town Council public hearing on 380 Maple West (39 condos plus retail at Maple and Wade Hampton), one of the pro-MAC speakers brought up the empty space at the Leslie’s Pool building. It seems to have been vacant for an unusual length of time, and it abuts what appear to be a couple of thriving restaurants.  That’s a little economic puzzle, and I thought I’d try to figure that out.

The answer is that the space is occupied — by the ghost of the former tenant, Sandy Spring Bank.  Near as I can tell, a) Sandy Spring Bank continues to pay the rent on its lease, b) that bank is trying to sublet the space, but c) the lease specifies sub-standard parking for the Sandy Spring side of the building, and d) in all likelihood, Sandy Spring Bank has minimal flexibility in how they sublet the space.

In other words, the space is empty as a result of the ongoing aftermath of an unsuccessful business decision by Sandy Spring Bank.   The property owner is being paid and so probably doesn’t care that the space is empty.  And Sandy Spring Bank likely can do little to sublet the space, other than advertise it as it stands:  $60/sq ft/year in total costs, and just ten parking spaces.

To be clear, it’s not an indication of decay on Maple Avenue.  It’s an indication that, sometimes, business decisions go wrong.  And that if you have deep pockets, and you sign a commercial lease, one way or the other, you are stuck paying for that property for the duration of the lease.

Detail follows.

Continue reading Post #278: The former Sandy Spring Bank location

Post #244: Shocking behavior

I just want people to see, with their own eyes, the shockingly rude harassment faced by citizens who speak out in public meetings in favor of MAC zoning.   See for yourself.  FOR SHAME, YOU POISONOUS ANTI-MAC RABBLE!  YOU DON’T DESERVE TO BE CITIZENS OF VIENNA.

OK, yes, that’s sarcasm. These meetings are about as exciting as watching bread rise. The meeting was packed with people who don’t want this building.  The clip above shows the two pro-MAC speakers, spliced together.   The citizens got up, spoke their piece, and sat down.  Just like everybody else who spoke.  Continue reading Post #244: Shocking behavior

Post #236: The tear-down boom actually has zero impact, or, by-right jumps the shark

After sitting through Wednesday’s Planning Commission (PC) meeting I had a revelation.  I’ve been looking at the tear-down boom (Post #217) all wrong. Now that I have revised my thinking, and modeled it after the logic used by some members of the planning commission, I now realize that the tear-down boom has absolutely no impact on anything in the Town of Vienna.

Here’s the key:  Every owner of a small home in Vienna has the right to tear down their home and build a vastly larger home on the lot.  And so, because they have the right to do that, the only logical way to assess actual tear-downs is against this by-right baseline. This was the key bit of logic that had escaped me before.

And so, the following are inescapable conclusions of that logic:

  1. These new, much larger homes have zero impact on the schools.
  2. There is no impact on the Town of Vienna tax base.
  3. The tear-down boom leaves the look of our residential streets unchanged.
  4. Conversion of the entire housing stock to very large homes has no impact on the perception of Vienna as “small town”.

If you think this looks a bit off, I’ll just remind you of the logic used to get there.  The right way to assess a change that actually will occur (an actual tear-down), is against a baseline of what could possibly have been done, by right.  No matter how improbable.  And so, logically, because all homeowners have the right to tear down and rebuild, the actual tear-down boom has zero impact.

This is exactly the logic used by some, at Wednesday’s PC meeting, to justify, in part, the size of 380 Maple West.  This is the logic of the by-right analysis as it is currently being done. Continue reading Post #236: The tear-down boom actually has zero impact, or, by-right jumps the shark

Post #218: 2019 real estate tax increase – or – The Vienna School of Algebra

The Commonwealth has a rule that whenever real estate assessments rise more than 1 percent, but tax rates don’t fall to offset that (to within one percent), local governments have to publish a notice explaining that.  Just a simple bit of algebra to say, here’s the tax rate that would have offset that assessment increase.  Here’s what we’re actually proposing to charge.  And here’s the difference.  It’s just a way to make sure that citizens know how much their taxes are increasing.

I hate to have to be the one to say this.  But the Town just put out such a notice.  And their arithmetic is wrong.  Grossly incorrect.  I checked similar notices from three other jurisdictions, just to be sure that I was doing the calculation right.

And you know why I hate that?  Based on recent history, the most likely outcome is that, instead of just correcting their algebra, the Town will offer the usual bafflegab as why this unique Town of Vienna algebra is fully justified.  (And then quietly correct it.)

Let me be clear:  There is obviously no intent to deceive, because, clearly, nobody pays the slightest attention to this  notice.  Surely nobody within Town government, and I would guess, nobody (but me) outside of it.  I checked an earlier year, and I’m pretty sure their calculation has been wrong for some time now.

That said, at some level, this is all of-a-piece.  Five floors is really four floors.  A building the size of a football field preserves “small town” Vienna.  And a 5.6% increase in taxes is actually a 3.1 percent tax cut.  It all meshes together.

Detail follow.

Continue reading Post #218: 2019 real estate tax increase – or – The Vienna School of Algebra

Post #208: Maple Avenue retail, goods versus services

I did a rough survey of Maple Avenue retail, just a quick count of establishments by type, following up on my prior estimate of the retail vacancy rate.  The mix of Maple Avenue retail was mentioned at the Town’s 3/20/2019 joint work session, with the basic idea being that service-oriented retail is required to make retail work in Vienna.

In this brief posting, I’m going to give my characterization of Vienna retail.  I don’t think a simple goods-versus-service cut is adequate to understand what we have now.

Continue reading Post #208: Maple Avenue retail, goods versus services

Post #205: Some data on assisted living

Edited 3/22/2019 to soften my conclusions about Sunrise and 100 beds.  Edited late 3/22/2019 to explain what all those eight-bed assisted living facilities are.

On this page, I assemble, map, and tabulate some fairly hard-to-find data on a) location of all licensed assisted living facilities in Fairfax County, and b) the base monthly rates charged by most of them (2017 data).

Surprisingly, the table of monthly rates goes a long way toward explaining Sunrise’s behavior at the last Planning Commission meeting.  When questioned about five floors in their building, they were prepared.  They whipped out several other sets of building plans, all of which had more-or-less the same number of beds as their original plan.  And now I see that the Sunrise buildings in Fairfax (or, at least, for which I could find monthly price data) mostly cluster tightly between 100 and 120 beds.  It looks like they build these for a standard operating model.  So, one way or the other, I would guess, they’re going to get their 100 beds.

Continue reading Post #205: Some data on assisted living