Post #2087: Vienna pool, vote deferred until at least August 25, 2025.

 

I got a hot tip from some email correspondence that the scheduled 1/27/2025 vote to raise the meals tax … would be deferred.

That turned out to be a true rumor.  Took TC all of four minutes to raise, discuss, and vote to defer.

About half of the four minutes consists of a single long comment by Council Member Brill, regarding the uncertain outlook for the Federal workforce.  This was met with a smattering of applause, which the Mayor then immediately quashed, per TC SOP.

Here’s the four minutes of audio, starting just a few seconds before this item came up:

I gave that four minutes of audio to the AI lurking within notebooklm.google.com, to summarize.  Here’s how the AI summarized it, primarily based on a lengthy comment by Council Member Brill:

AI summary from notebooklm.google.com

1 source

A town council meeting transcript reveals a discussion regarding a proposed 10-year increase in the meals tax from 3% to 4%. A council member motions to defer the decision until August 25th, 2025, citing uncertainty surrounding potential federal telework policy changes that could impact local residents’ employment and, consequently, tax revenue. The motion passes unanimously. The deferral allows for more time to gather information and consider the implications of the evolving federal situation. This postponement is intended to ensure a well-informed and appropriate decision for the community.


Conclusion

That AI summary is close enough for me, and I listened to the whole four minutes.

If there were any specifics mentioned, about what’s supposed to happen between now and August 25th, both I and the AI missed them.  Just some boilerplate about getting more information, being responsible for this big decision, and so on.

Plus the notion that they can always defer a vote again, on August 25th.

The decision to defer a vote was unanimous.  Almost as if it had already been decided, outside of the public’s view.  Which it almost surely had.

The original recording can be found on Granicus, about 49 minutes into the recording of that Town Council meeting.

https://vienna-va.granicus.com/player/clip/1667?view_id=1&redirect=true

Any notion that Town Council Must Act NOW! has been quietly dropped down the memory hole (Post #2055).  So we’ve gone from “now or never” to “mañana”.  With zero comment on the change in the story being told to Town Council.  And zero repercussions for telling it.

Just another bit of mindless irrationality from the Town of Vienna.

Post #2083: Cold wave, heat pump, wood stove secondary heating.

 

Sometimes, all you need is a warm place.


Cold wave:  It’s going to get cold next week.

How cold?

In Vienna, VA, the National Weather Service is predicting a nighttime low of 4F, a week from now.

That’s rare but not totally unexpected.   

As of 1990, Vienna was at the edge of USDA plant hardiness Zone 6B, and could expected to see (and did see) occasional wintertime lows down to minus 5F

Three decades later, and we’re ten degrees warmer.  (In terms of our expected extreme low winter temperature).  As of the most recent USDA Hardiness Zone map, Vienna has moved into Zone 7B, with an expected extreme low of 5F.

That trend came through clearly in my analysis of annual low temperatures at nearby Dulles Airport.

So, it’s going to be cold, but it’s in line with expectations.


Heat Pump:  Cold weather remains the soft underbelly of air source heat pumps.

 

I fully grasp the irony of heating my house with an electrical appliance that, by design, quits working when it gets really cold outside.

Near as I can tell, all air source heat pumps all do this.  It’s just a question of how low can they go.  What I think of a “standard” home unit, as I recall, shuts down around freezing (32F).  Conversely, the “high heat” versions of the heat pump I got will go down to -17F or some such.   Mine — the regular versions — stop working at 5F.  This — super cold weather — is where ground-source heat pumps shine, as the ground loop temperature may be quite cold by that time, but nowhere near as cold as it is outside in a cold snap.   So the ground source is starting from much “warmer” material to extract its heat from.  Which, as you might well imagine, is an enviable position for a heat pump to be in.

But.

But 1, I didn’t think I’d hit that lower temperature limit the first winter I owned the thing.  The lower limit for mine is, in fact, 5F.  So, I will be looking at some (brief?) period when this new air-source mini-split may not run.  Not because it’s broken.  Just because it’s cold outside.

But 2, now I have to suss out the secondary heat.  Every heat pump system has secondary heat, I think.  (Or maybe it’s “should have”).  That’s what you use when the heat pump isn’t enough.  (Or to speed up the heating of rooms, when the heat pump alone would raise temperatures too slowly.)

Secondary heat for this mini-split is strictly DIY.  That’s by design.  It doesn’t come with — nor is is capable of activating — secondary heat of any sort, as far as I can tell.


So, just burn some natural gas …

White Clouds in Blue Sky ca. 1996

Secondary heat isn’t really a problem, because I can burn natural gas for heat.

But.

But 1, I can only do that — use the baseboard heating in that part of my house — by jury-rigging what’s left of my (still kind-of functioning) baseboard hot water heating.

But 2:  My fancy gas water-heater/furnace objects to serving as mere house heater.  (Another long story.)  It’ll work, but it’s bad for the device (as in, this is what burnt out the internal pump motor the first time.)

So I’m going with something simpler.


Buying a small quantify of firewood in the dead of winter.

 

I am now that guy.  That guy who is … per the title.

I wanted more than a shrink-wrapped bundle. But far less than a cord.  Where can I buy that, around here?  Preferably to pick up.

The right place for that turned out to be the Reston Farm Garden Market.  Where I paid $85 for an eight-of-a-cord, kiln-dried, stacked (by them) into the back of my hatchback Bolt.

So, $680 a cord, for kiln-dried hardwood, bought in small (one-eighth-cord) quantity.  I thought that was OK, in an area where a cord of kiln-dried hardwood, delivered, from my nearest source, would run $550 plus delivery fee.

Kiln dried or merely seasoned?  We go for kiln-dried now. It guarantees that it’s good firewood, but it’s a little too good. For sure, it burns more readily.  There are no bad logs.  But it burn faster and hotter than it ought, which means messing with the draft and relying on the air-tightness of the stove door gasket.  (FWIW, I’m convinced that the hotter burn nearly makes up for the fossil fuels used to dry the wood.  So the kiln drying step is not quite as much of an energy loser as it might seem at first.  And with all the pests harbored by firewood, it has to be kiln-dried to be moved more than a county or two away, anyway.)

FYI, the various shrink-wrapped or netted bundles of firewood for sale at local retail stores seem to work out to around $1600 a cord.

Apparently, this little out-of-the-way farm store moves tractor-trailer-loads of firewood, per year, through their yard.

That said, local air pollution aside, firewood is an expensive way to heat my house, given prices in my area.

As I recall, this is about what I found the last time I figured it.  Recognizing that for me, electricity is cheaper than natural gas, this means that firewood is my most expensive fuel option.

Short of this:

With the understanding that I’ve already shown that electricity remains my least expensive fuel, almost regardless of the outside temperature.*

* As long as the heat pumps will run.


Conclusion

My wife and I agree that there is just something comforting about having a full rack of dry firewood.

It’s not rational, practical, economical, or conducive to the public health.

But it is comforting.

And firewood is going to provide our secondary heat through this cold snap.  For the occasional night or two when we hit the extreme winter lows for this climate zone, it seems like the easiest solution.

Post #2080: Vienna, VA sidewalks in the snow.

 

In Vienna, VA, we are religious about shoveling the snow off our sidewalks.

God put the snow there.

God will remove it when he’s good and ready.


I tried to take a walk yesterday morning …

… without walking on snow and ice.

But, because I live in the Town of Vienna, that meant spending a lot of time walking in the road.

There’s no requirement to shovel your sidewalk in the Town of Vienna.  Unsurprisingly, some sidewalks are shoveled, some aren’t.  Which means that you typically can’t walk the length of a block without either walking on an un-shoveled sidewalk, or walking in the road.

This got me to thinking about what the snow-clearance laws are in Northern Virginia.  I know there’s no ordinance requiring it in Vienna.  But what about the rest of Northern Virginia?

Turns out, Vienna is in the minority.  Most of the jurisdictions around here require residents and business owners to shovel their sidewalks promptly after a snowfall.

I find that to be an oddly mixed bag.  Loudoun County is in general far more rural than Fairfax County, yet they require snow shoveling while Fairfax does not.

In all cases, the penalties for failure to clear a sidewalk are nugatory, so it’s not clear whether any of the laws are or are not effective.  I considered taking a field trip to the People’s Republic of Falls Church to see if their sidewalks really do get cleared or not.  But it hardly seems worth it.  Give it another few days, and the snow will be gone.

In the end, it’s just another oddity of living in No. Va.  These jurisdictions all have the same weather and have pretty much the same population demographics.  I’m guessing that the presence or absence of a shoveling ordinance is mostly a matter of historical accident.

In any case, in Vienna, we clear our sidewalks the old fashioned way, via religious observance.

Addendum:  Businesses in Vienna VA?

I know there’s no ordinance requiring homeowners to shovel their sidewalks in Vienna, but I was immediately questioned about businesses.  You can, and many places do, have different shoveling laws apply for business versus residential.

Old news reporting says that Vienna Town Council turned down any sort of shoveling ordinance in 2011 (Reference The Patch).

And that’s the last Google seems to have heard of it.

A search of MuniCode for Vienna VA for snow yields 13 mentions, none of which have to do with requiring businesses to shovel snow.

A search of the Town Website yields nothing useful, but that’s never definitive.

For sure, the Maple Avenue sidewalks were cleared around here.  Here’s Pleasant and Maple, looking west and east.

So, I don’t know.  There doesn’t seem to be an ordinance requiring it, but something resulted in the clearance of the Maple Avenue sidewalks in my area.  This is distinctly different from (say) Nutley, also a multi-lane road, but with large sections of un-shoveled sidewalk.

If it’s due to an ordinance, that ordinance appears well-hidden.

Post 2071: AI review of Vienna Town Council 12/16/2024 Work Session, Part I.

 

Below is NotebookLM’s report on the first 43+ minutes of last night’s Town Council Work Session.  Town posted the video promptly.

The audio of that meeting is all that NoteboolLM knows about this particular issue.  I think.

PSSST:  Then how did it get the architect’s name spelled correctly?  OK, so the AI knows a little more than it’s letting on.  The only thing I fed it, for this session, was the 43 minutes of audio.

One is never quite sure whether an AI is pulling one’s leg or not.  But, this was free, and I think I know more, after reading this, than I did before.

 


NotebookLM analysis of Vienna Town Council Work Session 12/16/2024, first portion, regarding a proposed pool/gym facility at “The Annex”.

This audio recording documents a December 2024 Vienna town council work session focused on preparing for a January 2025 session concerning a potential aquatic and fitness center. Council members submitted questions for consultants and staff regarding projected costs, revenue models, and community needs. A vote was taken to determine which questions would be prioritized for the upcoming session. Concerns were raised about funding mechanisms and the impact on local businesses and residents, including the possibility of a referendum. The session concluded with a decision to proceed with the investigation, despite some dissent.

 

NOTE that the text below is also AI-generated, but seems to have come in a form that won’t let me edit it.  (So I can’t turn the text to a different color to set it apart as AI output.)

 

Briefing Document: Town Council Work Session 12-16-2024

Subject: Aquatic and Fitness Center Annex Proposal – Information Gathering and Decision-Making Process

Date: December 16, 2024

Attendees:

  • Town Council Members: Roy, Sandra Allen, Howard, Ray, Chuck, Jessica Raminsky (represented by Mayor)
  • Mayor
  • Town Manager
  • Director of Parks and Recreation, Leslie Herman

Purpose: To identify key questions and information requirements for the Town Council to consider before making a decision on the proposed Aquatic and Fitness Center Annex on January 27th, 2025.

Background:

The Town Council is considering a proposal for an Aquatic and Fitness Center Annex. This proposal includes a significant capital investment and ongoing operating costs. A consultant, Kimmel Bogrett, has provided initial analysis, and Town Staff has conducted independent research.

Key Themes and Concerns:

  • Financial Viability and Revenue Generation: Council members expressed significant concern about the financial sustainability of the project. They requested detailed analysis of projected operating costs, potential revenue streams, and the likelihood of achieving projected membership numbers. Several members requested comparisons with similar facilities in other jurisdictions, including Fairfax County rec centers and the Herndon Community Center.

Council Member Roy: “Is it one in five [households] and for them [Kimmel Bogrett] to explain that… I want names of localities so we can call them up and find out how things are going.”

Council Member Chuck: “My questions… really relate to how much revenues can we expect to um generate from this facility to offset the pretty substantial operating costs.”

  • Membership Projections and Market Analysis: Doubts were raised about the consultant’s membership projections, particularly in light of competition from nearby Fairfax County facilities. Council members requested further analysis of the market area, considering factors like proximity, household income, and participation rates.

Council Member Chuck: “The estimates provided by the consultants is that… the annex would um attract around 2,000 memberships… the county has 16,660 countywide for nine facilities… So the consultants analysis basically posit It’s a slightly higher membership rate even though the facility is only one-third roughly one-third the size of the average county facility.”

  • Funding Options and Public Input: Council Member Allen strongly advocated for exploring alternative funding options beyond tax increases and for holding a public referendum on the project. This suggestion did not receive majority support from the Council.

Council Member Sandra Allen: “I have an issue with the funding… I want to make sure our residents have the decision the ultimate decision… and I want to put this in a referendum.”

  • Operational Considerations: Questions were raised about the potential impact of expanding the proposed pool from four to six lanes, the feasibility and profitability of various programs and services, and the potential demand for pool rentals.

Mayor: “So, we’ve talked about there’s a lot of ways to raise revenue… What is that balance? And what are the different types of um ways to raise revenue?”

Action Items and Next Steps:

  1. Compile Consolidated List of Questions: Town staff will compile a comprehensive list of questions raised by council members, ensuring clarity and avoiding redundancies.
  2. Submit Questions to Consultant and Staff: The consolidated question list will be submitted to Kimmel Bogrett and Town Staff by December 17, 2024.
  3. Deadline for Responses: Kimmel Bogrett and Town Staff will provide written responses to all questions by January 8th or 9th, 2025.
  4. Optional Two-on-Two Meetings: Between January 9th and January 20th, individual council members can schedule meetings with Kimmel Bogrett and Town Staff to clarify responses and seek further explanation.
  5. Work Session Presentation and Discussion: Kimmel Bogrett and Town Staff will present their findings and address council member questions at the Town Council Work Session on January 21st, 2025.
  6. Town Council Decision: The Town Council will make a final decision on the Aquatic and Fitness Center Annex proposal on January 27th, 2025.

Conclusion:

The Town Council is committed to a thorough and transparent decision-making process for the Aquatic and Fitness Center Annex proposal. Gathering detailed information on financial viability, market demand, and operational considerations is crucial to ensure a fiscally responsible and community-oriented outcome.

Post #2069: Last night’s Town Council meeting.

 

Town Council did not vote on raising the meals tax last night.

They’ll revisit in January.

I have only bits and pieces of observations to report.


Observation 1:  If they’d have voted, the meals tax increase would have lost.

Virginia law is reasonably clear about what it takes for a Town to impose a tax.  Virginia Code § 15.2-1427(g):  In towns, no tax shall be imposed except by a two-thirds vote of the council members.” 

Which means, with the seven-member Town Council, in the Town of Vienna, it takes five “aye” votes from Town Council members to impose a tax.

As noted in the picture above, there were only six Town Council members present last night.  And based on their remarks, it’s a fair guess that at least two of them would not have voted for the meals tax increase at this time.

Leaving just four potential “yes” votes.  Insufficient for imposing a tax.

If it had come to a vote last night, it would almost surely have failed.

In any case, there was no vote.


Observation 2:  An anecdote about the Town trying to renege on its promise to sunset the meals tax increase, the last time.

As it turns out, this five-votes-are-needed for tax increases mattered quite a bit the last time the Town increased the meals tax.

You may recall that the Town temporarily increased the meals tax by one cent, to pay for the land that is now the Town Green. As with the current proposal, that included a sunset clause.  I recall it being on-order-of seven years.

But when it actually came time to sunset that meals tax increase the last time, the then-Mayor and Town Council balked.  They attempted to renege on that sunset promise.  And in fact, the motion to go back on their word, and make the increase permanent, got four yes votes, and three no votes.

Which meant that the Town Attorney had to inform the then-Mayor that the motion had failed.  Because, as it was a motion to impose a tax, it needed five yes votes to pass.

Back to the present, while this may seem like legal trivia, the law is written this way for a reason.  And given that it’s the same Town, and I think the same Town Attorney, I sure don’t see any wiggle room here.  If they want to impose an additional cent of tax, it should require five “yes” votes.  Not four.


Observation 3:  If you don’t want people to think this pool thing is wired  …

… then start by removing the disinformation from the Town website.

Above is the finance portion of Town’s public-facing write-up of the proposed pool/gym, accessible at:

https://www.viennava.gov/engagement-central/annex-reimagined

I leave to the reader to count the number of times that the Town mentions the $1000/year family membership fee, or the ongoing operating losses to be covered by property or other taxes.

Zero.  Neither of those is mentioned.

And that’s in case you didn’t get the same incorrect message from the Town’s mass mailing postcard.  Which also made it seem as if one cent on the meals tax for ten years would pay for everything.

The description of the financing, above, is both misleading and materially incorrect.  It gives the impression that the pool will be free, when in fact, it will cost as much to use as the Fairfax Rec Centers, and will come with an ongoing property tax burden to boot.

Town staff know this.  Town Council knows it.  The Mayor knows it.

And yet, the Town’s official description of the proposal goes out of its way to give the impression that the entire source of funding is a penny on the meals tax.  And yet, never quite crosses that line into saying something potentially actionable.

It merely omits any mention of unpleasant things such as user fees and property taxes.

With this kind of stuff — disinformation?  propaganda?  — with a description that makes it seem like this pool is free, why would any sane person think that the Town is interested in an even-handed discussion and decision?

Anyway, the Mayor seemed peeved that on-line chit-chat assumes this is a done deal.

All I have to say in response is, look at the what’s posted on the Town of Vienna website, and come to any other conclusion.  If you don’t want it to look like it’s wired, then start by not putting propaganda in our mailboxes or on the website.

I realize the Mayor has no direct control over the running of the website.   But, in theory at least, you’re all part of the Town of Vienna government.


Town Staff may have tipped their hand as to strategy moving forward.

Source:  TOV Granicus page, .pdf  The consulting firm who worked up the numbers for what it’ll cost Vienna to run this building (Ballard King) was, in fact, the chosen partner of the architectural firm that wants to sell Vienna the building in the first place (Kimmel Bogrette, KB above).  We, as the buyer, are literally looking at the seller’s estimate for what it’ll cost us to run our building, once we buy it.

The Town Manager went way out of his way to disparage the estimates that Town Staff had just provided, for operating losses for the proposed facility.  He described them as some sort of extreme worst-case scenario.  It was, as far as I could tell, a completely gratuitous comment.  Didn’t need to be made.  It just came out of nowhere. And, it contradicts what the staff writeup actually said, listing 35% to 50% cost recovery as the norm, making a mere 50% loss the best you could hope for, not the worst.

This in some sense matches the verbiage of the Town Staff’s materials (see prior post), but in that reading I attributed their use of “conservative”, to describe their loss estimate, as being due to the “extra revenue sources” not included (in CAPS in slide above).   But all extra-ordinary revenues aside, unless I misread that 35%-50% line, 50% cost recovery is about as good as it gets, in this industry, for a facility like the proposed one.

The other shoe to drop in this area is that they’re going to invite the consultants to present their operating cost numbers, in January.  Again, inviting somebody to show you the seller’s estimate of what it’ll cost to run the building they’re trying to sell you.

I don’t really understand why a buyer would ask the seller for any estimate of this sort.  It’s the seller’s number.  We’re the buyers.

But, on top of that, once the seller has given you a set of numbers that were so rosy as to be useless, you’d think you’d be done with it.  You’d say, OK, we were told about what we should have expected the seller to tell us.

Instead … we’re asking them back? Giving them another bite at the apple?

Edit 12/11/2024:

Why? 

It’s not clear to me.

On the one hand, they may have Ballard*King present a full-throated defense of their 15% operating loss projection. 

I’m going to hazard that this would be inadvisable, if for no other reason than that projected 85% cost recovery (15% operating loss) is well outside the range listed by Town Staff as some sort of industry norm of 35% to 50% cost recovery.  Red arrow in graphic just above.  (Part of materials posted for the 12/9/2024 Town Council meeting.  See Post #2067).

Then my thought becomes, good heavens.  Town Staff cannot be asking Town Council to see important new material regarding likely operating losses, and then vote the tax up or down in the same session.  Are they?

That also seems inadvisable, for the hurry. Although, it does convey the  “decisions just wander around until they stop” vibe that Vienna puts out.  So why not, I guess, have a presentation of new information from the seller’s side, and then have Town Council vote on the tax, immediately, all in one session.

Funny anecdote.  I had a boss like that once.  He worked with a big committee of industry hotshots.  They, in turn, needed to settle on proposed changes to Medicare’s payment policies.  My boss’s job, was, in part, to shepherd them to a decision.  There was a lot of discussion around the table.  Likening “the decision” to a ball, if the ball stopped rolling at some point my boss didn’t particularly like, he’d kick that ball back into play with some sort of pointed question.  And when the ball stopped where he wanted it, he remained silent.   

I could see this as a face-saving, peace-keeping maneuver, prior to a vote.  If the consultants were willing to repeat what they said already, in their written materials, which is that they assumed Vienna would be the only “REC-Center-like” facility in the market area.  And work from there.   Toward market conditions as stated by 2014 Town Council member Polychrones.  I think the consultants might reasonably suggest that our actual, observed operating losses might be more than they projected.  How much more, they can wing it if they want to, but I’d say that would require additional work to answer.  It’s out-of-scope.

Done with grace, that would serve to provide “white coat” cover to those who wish to ignore the operating cost issue.  You’d be free to interpret that as the experts saying they had it spot-on, and they might consider tweaking their estimate in response to local market conditions.  But no more than that.  So it’s pocket change.

That would also provide an out for those who have focused on Kelleher quantified, and other “benchmarks”, or just feel it isn’t worth it, to burden the restaurant industry in the first place, let alone the operating cost burden.  Those folks can say, fine, the Vienna facility would have one-third the size, but two-thirds the operating cost, of a typical Fairfax County REC Center.  We’re going to pay for that, forever.  That, so that some people won’t have to drive as far to use a gym/pool.  That suggests poor value, e.g., if there’s money to spare, I’d rather lower the water bills first.

Then have Town Council bat it back and forth one last time, and vote.  As previously noted, I’m pretty sure this takes five yes votes to pass, as it is the imposition of a tax.

As an afterthought, I hope we have all gotten our minds around a study that we paid for, using the (presumed respected) firm hand-picked by the seller.  As the buyer in this transaction, it’s that last phrase that should trigger your sense of caveat emptor.   If it does not, you are presumably part of their target audience.  But as someone who made a living consulting, I can tell you, that definitely triggers mine.  I doubt that the architectural firm for this proposed facility has a habit of shooting itself in the foot.


Still turning a blind eye to 2014.

I still haven’t heard either Kelleher or Polychrones mentioned in any Town Council discussion.

Both of those ex-Town Council members are still around, though neither lives in Vienna any more.

In any case, I think at least a couple of Town Council members get it.  That Kelleher was right about economies-of-scale, that Polychrones was right about the stiff competition for this type of facility, from the three local Fairfax County REC Centers.

But officially, as far as the current deliberations go, the rationales for the operating costs concerns that contributed to the 2014 “no” vote — those have simply gone down the memory hole.


Conclusion

So here’s my prediction.

The consultant’s original rosy scenario for operating costs was too rosy.  It was obviously wrong, when benchmarked against data for this area.  In hindsight, that was a strategic mistake.

So, Town Staff is going to have the same consultants come back and present … just guessing here … a somewhat less rosy scenario.  Edit:  Or maybe a YMMV from the consultants, as a way to reconcile all this.

Which Town Council members who wish to do so may then accept as being adequate for use in sweeping the operating loss issue — the ongoing taxpayer subsidy — under the rug.  Edit:  And, in fairness, if done well, will also provide support to those who, for a variety of reasons, expect to see less demand and higher operating losses than the original operating loss projections suggested.

There is also a work session prior to that.  I don’t even want to think about that, as my best guess is, that’ll be where Town staff will soften up Town Council members who resist accepting the seller’s new numbers.

And if five Town Council members vote “yes”, at the end of January, then it’s a go on the meals tax, and for the Vienna pool/gym.

Post #2068: Vienna Pool economics, simplified.

 

The baseline economic scenario

Near as I can tell, the following statements are true:

A small-scale facility such as the one proposed by Vienna will cost about twice as much to operate, per square foot, as the nearby Fairfax REC Centers.

If Vienna merely manages to attract as much revenue as Fairfax does, per square foot of facility, then Vienna taxpayers will cover 50% of the operating costs of the proposed Vienna pool/gym facility.  (User fees such as annual memberships will cover the other half.)

This is the scenario — 50% operating losses — now being shown Town Council, on this round of discussion.

With the staff proviso that there may well be enough un-conventional revenue sources to cover the operating losses without using Vienna tax dollars.  (Which I read as not specifics, but as a plea not to shut the door on having a pool, until Town Staff have had time to look into those alternative revenue sources, and see if anything pans out.)

That all seems squared away now, in my opinion.  I think that’s a realistic view.

Plus the cost of the land.  And the cost of building the facility.  Both of those capital costs, paid for or to be paid for, by the meals tax.

Which is the proximate issue, for this evening’s Town Council meeting.

Well, so what.

So it costs money.  Even tax money.  So what else is new.  Parks cost tax money.  Why not here too?

Turns out, this is a rock best left unturned.

Let me start with a walk on the light side.  Only after you look at the Fairfax County Park Authority as a whole do you really appreciate how rational their system is.

Fairfax doesn’t subsidize the operating costs of the REC Centers.  That’s not where indoor swimming falls, in their spectrum of subsidy level for recreational activities.  On their subsidy-meter, indoor swimming falls at “pays its own way”.  Covers operating cost:

  • Golf courses cover operating cost, plus.
  • REC Centers cover operating cost.
  • Events held in the parks cover operating cost, minus.
  • Parks (just parks, not “attractions”), are free.  They cover none of their costs.

After you absorb that — they chose to make REC Centers cover their own operating costs (or had to, as a political bargain), then it eventually dawns on you that this is why Fairfax has just a handful (9) of gigantic REC Centers.  Their best shot at making them self-supporting was by building them big, in the presence of significant economies-of-scale.

Like it or not, REC Centers constitute part of an orderly and coherent enterprise.  They have a planned level of subsidy that fits into an overall scheme of recreational activity, from golf to a walk in the park.  And the REC Centers appear to have been built at an efficient scale.

Overall, across all its enterprises, the FCPA covers about two-thirds of operating costs with user revenues in one form or the other.  For comparison, the corresponding calculation for Vienna Parks and Rec is less than one-third, based on the 2025 Town of Vienna budget, page 101 for the revenue number.)

Then you look at Vienna, and it’s just slap-dash. 

Vienna’s subsidy level for this type of recreation isn’t chosen with forethought.  It’s going to be whatever the shortfall is, said shortfall likely owing to the inefficient scale of the facility.  So it’s 50-percent-ish, not because that reflects some purposefully decision by Vienna that indoor swimming deserves this level of subsidy, but because it’s what we gotta do, financially, to have one these pool/gym things right here in Town.

It’s literally the residual — the afterthought, just like the chosen scale of operation.  The Town happened to pick up this particular piece of land, and now because this one-third-scale facility is what fits on that land, you get the resulting high average costs, and because our user fees are effectively capped by what Fairfax charges, that’s why we end up with a 50% subsidy.

Even then, Vienna is wealthy enough, that you could just kind of laugh this off in a “what a first-world problem” kind of way.

But if most of what this does is merely cannibalize membership from the nearby Fairfax REC Centers, all we’re doing is raising everybody’s costs.  You’ve pulled people out of an efficiently-sized facility and enticed them to come to yours.  Presumably, in order to have somewhat shorter average travel times for those switching to the Vienna facility.  And you’ve enticed them to do that by subsidizing your fees, so you appear no more expensive than the further-away REC Centers.

And second, it’s not as if this is an environmentally benign thing to build.  My guess, from some projection of the electric bill, it’ll use enough electricity to power 75 homes or so.  Between 1 and 2 percent of all the homes in Vienna.

And finally, don’t forget the opportunity cost.  What is the point, exactly, of passing a Parks and Rec master plan, like, eh, a couple of months after locking up all your capital, for the foreseeable future, in this pool/gym thing.  Is that so you can talk about all the changes you’d like to make, to optimize Vienna parks, but now no longer can?

This ready-fire-aim decision-making is so weirdly a part of the Town of Vienna vibe that we who live here perceive nothing unusual in it.  But it’s not until you study the Fairfax County Park Authority that you realize just how well they have their act together.  And how little does the Town of Vienna have its act together.

And that’s what did it for me.

You know how deep our thinking goes?   It goes as deep as “citizens of Vienna have long wanted a pool”.  And that we, could, in fact, have one.  It won’t bankrupt the Town.

In the end, it boils down to dumping a whole lot of money into providing services locally, that are already provided nearby.  Not cheaper, or better, or really even, different.  Just closer.  More Vienna-centric.

I’m not seeing the value in that.

But I’ve been using the Fairfax County REC Centers for years.

Vienna pool?  Build it, don’t build it, I don’t much care.  It’s not going to affect me one way or the other.

Post #2066: Vienna pool capital reserve

 

I was asked a question regarding “capital reserves” for a pool.  That’s the $100K item circled above.

Is that enough, set aside, for future repairs and replacement of the long-lived, big-ticket items, as they wear out? Things like the roof, the HVAC system, carpeting, parking lot pavement, and the equipment.

Turns out, that’s a surprisingly hard question to answer.

But my answer is, yeah, probably.  Or, at least, I can’t possibly know enough to say otherwise. Continue reading Post #2066: Vienna pool capital reserve

Post 2065: Vienna Pool, 25% non-resident upcharge.

 

For me, this whole Vienna pool/gym thing has been like opening a big box of chocolates.  Every day, there’s a different and unexpected treat.

Today its the “25% upcharge for non-residents”.

Sometimes, you bite into one of those fancy chocolates, and it’s not at all what you expected.


Of course non-residents must pay more.  That’s a no-brainer, right?

On the one hand, it seems like a simple matter of fairness.  Let’s suppose that  Vienna taxpayers have to kick in (say) 20% of the operating costs of this facility year after year.  So that the fees charged to Vienna users only cover (say) 80% of costs.

Well, then, if you don’t pay Vienna property taxes, then it’s only fair that you ought to make up for that by paying (20%/80% =) 25% more for a membership.

Obviously, we must ask non-residents to pay the full, un-subsidized price.  Because they aren’t paying Town of Vienna taxes.

That’s the rationale for a 25% up-charge.  It’s so that everybody pays the same, for using the facility.

It’s obvious, right?  This homey little “fairness” story has a lot of common-sense appeal.  I mean, surely you would not ask Vienna residents to subsidize the swimming of non-Vienna residents?  That has to be nuts, right?


Sorry, that particular bon-bon is full of baloney.

First point:  What does the average Vienna pool member actually pay, in total, including tax subsidy?  What’s the true “ticket price” that you charge them?

Assume for a moment that the following is true:

  • A family membership to this pool costs $1000 to a Vienna resident.
  • 10% of Vienna families buy memberships.
  • The cost of running the pool works out to be $1250 per member.
  • Vienna taxpayers are making up the $250 operating loss out of property tax revenues.

Under these assumptions, how much does the average Vienna resident who purchases a membership actually pay, including both the purchase price, and the tax subsidy?

  1. $1000
  2. $1250
  3. $1025

The answer is c, $1025.

If everybody in Vienna pays for the pool, but  only one-in-ten uses the pool, then the average pool user’s share of the tax subsidy is one-tenth of the total.

If you focus narrowly on the ticket price — that the total price of a membership, to a non-Vienna resident, must match the total amount paid by the average Vienna pool member, including what that member paid in tax subsidy — then the fair price for non-residents is $1025.

That’s because Vienna-resident pool users themselves are subsidized by all Vienna taxpayers.

There is a counter argument that, somehow, taxes are all a wash.  So that even if you don’t join the pool, maybe your pool joiners don’t have their leaves vacuumed up, or use the ball fields, or something.   So there is some sort of a fuzzy, we’re-all-in-this-together, it-all-averages-out argument for including the total value of all taxpayer contributions, when figuring the “fair” non-resident upcharge.

If the goal is merely one of pricing — that everybody who uses it pays the same total price — then the right non-resident price in this case is a 2.5% up-charge.  Not a 25% up-charge.


Point 2:  financial leverage.  What’s your “fair non-resident upcharge” if operating losses are, say, 50%.

Well, it’s 100%.  Based on the same naive reasoning that gives you the plausible-sounding 25% upcharge.  If the taxpayer subsidy covers half the costs, then the un-subsidized membership price would be doubled.  The “fair” membership fee, for those outside the Town of Vienna, would be $2000/year for a family. 

So, $1000/year for a Vienna family.  And $2000 a year for a non-resident family membership.

Does anything strike you as impractical about that?

As in, how many non-resident memberships would you expect to sell, given that there are three Fairfax REC Centers nearby, and those only cost $1000/year for a family membership?


Point 3:  Marginal cost is probably close to zero.

If you have (say) 30 people swimming in your municipal pool, and you add one more, how much does that increase your costs?

If you said, probably close to zero, then I’d say you’re all-the-way right.

And so, until such time as the facility gets “congested” (in economics-speak) — so crowded that it’s hard to find a parking place, or there’s no room to swim laps, or you have to wait to use your favored weight or cardio machines — having more people use the facility literally costs nothing.  Or very close to it.

Translation:  Additional users are pure profit.  Until such time as the facility gets congested from over-use.

Now how do you feel about that hefty up-charge?  In particular, how smart does it look to charge so much that you totally discourage membership purchases from outside the Town of Vienna?


Point 4:  Keep your eye on the doughnut, not on the hole.

The taxpayer subsidy is literally the hole in this facility’s revenues.  And by focusing on that hole, you are missing the doughnut entirely.

The doughnut here is the total revenues for the pool.  (Less costs, which by assumption are more or less independent of the volume of users.)

The question you need to ask is: “What non-resident upcharge policy results in the least expenditure by Vienna taxpayers”. 

Which, if total costs really don’t vary significant with the number of users, amounts to, what non-resident upcharge policy results in the highest facility revenue?  Again, consistent with the facility not being congested, that is, so crowded that it becomes unpleasant to use.

In short, the “fair upcharge” viewpoint is a poor way to look at this because it only focuses on costs.  It ignores revenue (the doughnut).  A high upcharge may, in fact, shrink the doughnut, and leave you with an even bigger hole to fill.


Point 5:  The break-even “price elasticity of demand” is something like 1.0.

Formally, price elasticity of demand in this case is defined as the percentage reduction in non-Vienna memberships sold, divided by the percentage upcharge.

If a 10% upcharge results in a loss of 10% of your out-of-town membership (relative to the number you’d get with no non-resident upcharge), you’d take in roughly the same revenues with or without the upcharge.   That is, price x quantity = revenue, so 110% x 90% = 99%.

Doing the math, if a 25% upcharge loses you more than 20% of your out-of-Town memberships, then imposing that upcharge is a case of shooting yourself in the foot.  Because 125% x 80% = 100%. Any loss greater than 20% results in less total revenue, and so results in a bigger required taxpayer subsidy for the facility.  (Assuming that marginal cost is zero, and that the facility does not get congested.)

For example, suppose that imposing a 25% upcharge chases away half of your potential out-of-town memberships.  In that case, your revenues from out-of-Town members fall by more than a third.  (That is, 125% x 50% = 62.5%.)  If costs don’t change, then Vienna taxpayers have to make up for those lost revenues.


Conclusion

First, if you insist on charging a “fair’ price to non-residents — that is, the price absent any Vienna taxpayer subsidy — you’re going to get some sticker shock if operating losses are as high as I have projected them to be.  You’ll end up trying to charge $2000/family for non-residents.  And I’m guessing you’ll end up collecting next-to-nothing.

In that extreme case, it’s fairly easy to see that charging the “fair” price could easily mean shooting yourself (the Vienna taxpayer) in the foot.  All the revenues that you don’t collect, from those outside of Vienna, translate into higher annual operating losses that must be covered by the TOV taxpayers.

But more generally, simple pricing rules-of-thumb may not result in the lowest Vienna taxpayer subsidy.  That’s true for the upcharge decision.  That’s also true for the decision on what to charge Vienna residents in the first place.  I’ve been working under the assumption that we’ll charge what Fairfax charges.  I’m pretty sure we can’t charge a lot more than that, and still have much business.  But there’s no guarantee that charging at the Fairfax County rate is going to minimize operating losses for the facility.  That would depend on Vienna residents’ price elasticity of demand for this facility.

Finally, we should face up to the possibility that, politically, we may have no choice but to shoot ourselves in the foot.  Even if we knew that a “fair” upcharge would end up costing the taxpayers money, I would not want to be the person to explain why we’re letting non-Vienna residents join the pool for the same membership fee as residents.

Worse, if you had some sort of value-based price discrimination in mind (i.e. pick what pockets you can), if travel time is the big dis-utility for regular gym use, you’d charge TOV residents more than you’d charge those from further away.  Try explaining that one, to a grumbling crowd of taxpayers.

Best guess, the upcharge is going to be some plausible-sounding round number.  And nobody’s going to give a second thought to guessing what the impact of that will be, on Vienna taxpayers.