Post #1492: Ceci n’est pas un parc, or surrealism in the Town of Vienna

 

With apologies to the master of surrealist painting, René Magritte.  Source for image above, The Treachery of Images entry in Wikipedia.

In the spirit of surrealism, I offer you this post, Ceci n’est pas un parc.  Which I will roughly translate as “this here isn’t a park”.  And, according to a Town of Vienna official, stated clearly and unambiguously at the 4/18/2022 Town Council session, this tract I’ll be looking at, it’s not a park, it has never been a park, and those who keep calling it a park are just stirring up trouble.

Because, I repeat, the thing I am going to describe is not, and never has been a duck.  I mean park.  Even if, at some point, it appeared to have walked like one, quacked like one, and so on.


The subtle surrealism of the current Town of Vienna on-line Zoning Map.

Let’s start in the present, then look at some history.  Right here, right now, the Town of Vienna maintains a current(-ish) on-line version of its official Zoning Map.  This Map, in its official form, has significant Legal Implications for this, that, and the other.  But the on-line version is just so citizens can look up the status of a piece of land.

You can find that map by clicking this link to this this Town of Vienna web page.

If you look in the northern part of town, you’d see this.  The various colors represent different types of zoning in Vienna.

But there’s writing underneath the zoning layer.  If you strip off the zoning layer, you’d see this:

To save you the squinting, let me blow up the relevant portion.  The black annotation is mine.

How anyone could possibly have gotten the notion that the area in question was, at one time, called and considered to be a park, I cannot imagine.  If you are somehow so delusional as believe what is literally written on the Town’s own on-line zoning map, just keep repeating to yourself:  Ceci n’est pas un parc.  Because you’ve been told that is isn’t, and never was, a park.  Eventually you will believe it.

In all fairness, that’s not currently zoned as a park.  But “park” zoning is a recent phenomenon in the Town of Vienna. And that’s after the Town quietly decided it wanted to use that land for another purpose.

Instead, that’s called a park — on the Town’s current map — because — see below — that’s how the Town of Vienna classified it for decades, and that’s how it was used for decades.

If you wish to verify that the Town’s map actually says this, I suggest you hop to it.  This may disappear now that TOV officials are aware of it.  I just couldn’t resist pointing out the irony.  For as long as it lasts.

No, wait, scratch that.  That’s inconvenient.  Just keep repeating:  Ceci n’est pas un parc.

And, also to be fair, if zoning is the sole arbiter of park status, then the W&OD Park isn’t a park, either.  That’s the curved arc cutting through the middle of this view of the TOV on-line zoning map.

Apparently, once a zoning category for “park” was established (late 1990’s?), for whatever reason, the Town did not change the zoning on either of those.  I’m sure there’s some reason for it, in both cases.  Possibly the W&OD exists solely as an easement?  Beats me.  All I know is, it’s not zoned as a park.


Four decades of ancient history and the middle ages.

Before the Town adopted a separate zoning category for parks, the only way to tell that the Town considered a parcel of land to be park land was from the official Land Use Map.  That dates back into ancient history.   And then, at some point, in the Town of Vienna’s middle ages, that map became part of the Town’s Comprehensive Plan. Both of these have Significant Legal Implications for allowable land use in the Town of Vienna.

The oldest such map on-line on the Town of Vienna website is the 1957 Town of Vienna proposed land use map.  You can find that by clicking this link for the .pdf on the Town’s website.  The orientation is a bit odd, with Maple Avenue runs left-to-right in the graphic below, but you can probably recognize the shape of the-thing-that-was-never-a-park.   Apparently.  Despite the green color, well … the annotation says it all.

Source:  Town of Vienna 1957 proposed land use map, link given above, annotation in black mine.

If we fast-forward two decades, to the 1979 Town of Vienna official land use map (available by clicking this link to the Town of Vienna website), drawn during the Town’s Crayola Period, you’ll get yet another view of that thing which, despite clearly having been lovingly hand-colored in green crayon, is not and never has been a park.  Like so:

Source:  TOV 1979 official land use map, link cited above, annotation in black is mine.

You’ll have to trust me that every official map between those two tells the same story.  (And that I picked 1979 solely because it sorts to the top if you search for land use map on the TOV website.)

It doesn’t stop with the maps.  If you look at official inventories of park land in the Town of Vienna, in their five-year Comprehensive Plans, this same thing — that never was a park — somehow manages to end up on the list of parks, a counterfeit among all the real and true parks.

To understand the truth, you just have to be able to separate the true parks from the fake parks.  But that’s easy.  Allow me to demonstrate.

Just to pick one, like so, yet another couple of decades later, from the 1995 Town of Vienna comprehensive plan, you can find a tabular view of that thing which never was a park.   It somehow smuggled itself onto the Town’s official inventory of parks, with the word park attached to it.

Source:  Town of Vienna 1995 Comprehensive Plan, annotations mine.

See?  Easy-peasy.  Now, that was never a park.


Conclusion

So, who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?   Remember, all I’m doing here is agreeing with the Official Party Line of the Town of Vienna.  How anyone in the Town of Vienna could possibly have gotten the notion that this was ever a park is just beyond me.  This was never a park, therefore all the people in that neighborhood who keep saying that are just a bunch of liars.   Trouble-making liars, at that.  Just keep repeating, Ceci n’est pas une pipe, or parc, or maybe duck, and eventually the you will able to double-think your way into total agreement with the official Town of Vienna position on this matter.

Post #1489: Town of Vienna, do you really think DPW routinely featherbeds?

 

Featherbedding (v):  The practice of hiring more workers than are needed to perform a given job, or to adopt work procedures which appear pointless, complex and time-consuming merely to employ additional workers.

Source:  Wikipedia

This is my usual TLDR posting style.  Just skip to the conclusion if you just want the bottom line of what I think I heard at the 4/18/2022 Town Council session on leaf collection and disposal.  With the understanding that it might be just so much wishful thinking. Continue reading Post #1489: Town of Vienna, do you really think DPW routinely featherbeds?

Post #1486: Town of Vienna, budget costs versus total cost and a return-on-investment view of long-haul leaf disposal

 

 

Before I say anything else:  The Town of Vienna will continue to pick up your leaves every fall.  Without fail.  Nobody is talking about stopping leaf pickup.  This is all about how the Town disposes of those leaves, once it gathers them.

This Monday (4/18/2022), Vienna Town Council will hold a conference session in which they will continue their discussion of alternative ways to collect and dispose of leaves.  You can find the background materials at the link on this web page.  My last posts on this topic were Post #1461, Post #1462, and Post #1463.  And Post #1464

In this post, I want to make a simple point about the money costs and savings of what has been proposed.  In particular, under what appears to be the most reasonable proposal (“Option 3, long haul”), the Town will pay out somewhat more to contractors than it does now.  But it will be paid back more than twice the value of that in terms of Department of Public Works staff time and other resource costs that will be freed up for use in other ongoing tasks.

In effect, the greater efficiency of this new option, compared to the current approach, more-or-less allows the Town to obtain a modest amount of staff labor at less than half the normal cost.

It’s a unique opportunity for the Town to get an immediate two-to-one return on investment.  For $61K worth of contracted services, the Town frees up $135K worth of Department of Public Works labor.

Details are given in the final section below.


Background.

In the 3/22/2022 Vienna Town Council meeting, there was an extensive discussion and public hearing on changing the way Vienna disposes of its leaves in the Fall.  If you need the background, the best source is probably the staff presentation, available from the link on this Town of Vienna Granicus web page.

The issue is that the Town currently dumps, grinds, and mulches its leaves on a tract of land that is smack in the middle of a quiet residential neighborhood.

Briefly, it’s noisy and it stinks.  And between the multi-month period of leaf collection in the Fall, and the deliveries of “free” mulch in the Spring, that goes on for quite some time.

In effect, the Town of Vienna operates an industrial-scale waste disposal facility, seasonally, in the middle of an area zoned for and used as a residential area.

You might well ask, how can the Town operate an industrial facility in a residential area?   That’s not a legally-allowed use of land that is zoned residential.  The answer is that the Town long ago issued itself a “conditional use permit” to do that.  And, hey presto, it was therefore legal for the Town to do this.  And yet, everyone agrees that under no circumstances would the Town allow a private enterprise do to the same thing — place a noisy commercial operation in the middle of a quiet residential neighborhood.

And just in case that legal self-dealing didn’t rub quite enough salt in the neighbor’s wounds, the land in question was labeled and used as park land for decades prior to this.  In fact, most (but not all) on-line mapping services still label the tract in question by its traditional name, Beulah Road Park.

Source:  Top map, USPS EDDM website, bottom map, Duck Duck Go search.

Unsurprisingly, the neighbors around that leaf dump/mulch-grinding facility objected.  It has been an ongoing sore point for them.

But there were two new developments in the past couple of years.

First, at some point in the last campaign for Mayor of Vienna, the current Mayor seemed to have promised to do something about it.  So, in theory, righting this situation is on the TOV government’s radar screen.

And, blessedly, the Town’s tub grinder died.  This is the large and loud machine that is at the heart of the Town’s current approach, used to grind the leaves prior to mulching.  I believe the repair is either impossible or uneconomic, and that a replacement device of the same size would now cost upwards of half-a-million dollars.

And that provided an opportunity for everybody to step back and reconsider how the Town goes about this.  Particularly given that we have examples from both Fairfax County and from the Town of Herndon, both of whom manage to get rid of their leaves annually without trashing a residential neighborhood in the process.

Which, in turn, led to taking a hard look at the resources currently consumed by this process.  Leading to the conclusion that the Town’s “free” mulch, which it literally will truck to your home for free, actually has an average cost of about $125 per truck load.  Or — unsurprisingly — in the ballpark of what it costs local commercial mulch supply firms to supply it.

I went through all of that in my prior posts.


Option 3, long haul, and objections to it.

At the prior Town Council meeting/public hearing on this topic, it seemed like the “long haul” option had the most support.  Under that approach the Town would simply haul the leaves directly to Loudoun Composting for disposal.  The fully-allocated cost of that was $74K (or about 16 percent) cheaper than the current approach, and it would free up that eight-acre tract of land known as Beulah Road Park for some higher-valued use than being the in-town leaf dump.

That said, I noted a few possible sticking points that were raised:

  1. Some people wanted to keep the existing system with “free” mulch for Town residents. They were in the clear minority of those who showed up to speak.
  2. There was some uncertainty over the costs, and the possible impact of fuel cost increases.  There was also concern if total fossil fuel use were to rise.
  3. There was some concern over how “robust” the approach of hauling the leaves directly to Loudoun Composting would  be.  E.g., could this be derailed by a traffic accident on I-66.
  4. Finally, there was concern that, while the fully-allocated cost of leaf collection would fall, the Town’s total budget costs would actually increase. 

Objection 1:  The end of “free” mulch

There’s no answer to that first objection that will leave the current mulch recipients happy.  People like free stuff.  Even if giving stuff away is ludicrously inefficient from an economic standpoint.  And costs the taxpayers money.

But now that the Town knows that it has an average cost of $125 a load for that “free” mulch, it really has no business giving it away.  The only justifiable solution is to charge a fair rate for it — meaning its own average cost of $125 a load.

To the extent that anyone still demands it at that price, the town could satisfy that demand by using Town trucks and personnel to obtain free Fairfax County mulch, from the I-66 transfer station, and bring that into Town.  Or, better, cut a deal with Loudoun Composting to bring back a few loads of finished mulch, instead of deadheading back on each trip.

I’m sure that the people who get free mulch now will be unhappy with having to pay for it.  But the Town can’t look at its own data showing an average cost of production of $125 per load, all-in, and continue to give that away.  That’s not good governance.

My point is, if the Town will charge a reasonable rate for it, the demand for Town-supplied much will drop to a minimal level.  Possibly zero.  And there are any number of ways to provide finished mulch to the handful of citizens who will not give up the tradition of Town-supplied mulch, without resorting to large scale production of mulch within the Town of Vienna.

Objection 2:  Fuel price increases matter, as does total fossil fuel use.

I went through most of the numbers in Post #1464The upshot is that neither of these factors matters much. 

All three options involve roughly the same number of truck-miles.  Which is not a surprise, as the bulk of the miles under all three options is in trucking the leaves out to Loudoun County.  If anything, this argues for doing the long haul with larger trucks, if possible.  But I don’t think that’s possible, as those same trucks must be used to pick the leaves up off the streets.

It’s also easy enough to show that fuel prices are a minor consideration.  First, I come up with a guess of about 1400 gallons of diesel burned in the trucks.  That’s based on the mileage above, and a guess of 9 MPG average for the mix of Town trucks, based on mostly highway miles.  Toss in another few hundred gallons for running the leaf vacuums, and surely the entire enterprise burns no more than 2000 gallons of fuel.  At that rate, each $1 rise in the price of a gallon of fuel adds just $2000 to overall cost.  That’s small enough to get lost in rounding error.

Objection 3:  Is this process robust?

There’s really no way to find out until they try it.  But my understanding is that Fairfax County does its own leaf pickups this way, with direct haul of the leaves to their final destination using contract truckers.  I have to believe that if it works for Fairfax County, it should work for us.

Objection 4:  Overall increase in budget.

That’s the subject of the next section.


Another look at the budget for Option 3, long haul

The points made in this section are simple.

Option 3 increases the Town’s overall budget because it requires the Town to spend about $61K on contracted services.  But the Town has no plans to fire any Department of Public Works (DPW) staff to offset that, even if fewer total staff hours are required for leaf collection and disposal.

But:

But, first, the amount of money we are discussing here is small, compared to the operating budget of the Vienna Department of Public Works.  DPW should have no problem putting that freed-up staff time to productive use.

And, more importantly, because the new approach is so much more efficient, the Town gets a huge return-on-investment from that additional $61K spending on contracted costs.  The Town doesn’t just get a dollar-for-dollar return.  It’s not just substituting $61K of contract labor for $61K of staff labor.  It gets that, and in additional it gets a return from adopting this more-efficient method for leaf collection and disposal.  The greater efficiency of the new approach leverages that $61K investment in contracted services into $135K worth of DPW labor and other costs.

To get to the bottom line, those additional budget costs, in the form of truck rental and leaf disposal costs, generate a better-than-two-to-one return on investment.  Putting that another way, assuming that there is productive work for DPW staff to do, the change in leaf collection effectively purchases that additional work at less than half the usual price.

If Vienna Town Council was happy to fund DPWs existing workload at its current average cost, they really shouldn’t balk at purchasing a little more maintenance and repair at half-price.

And now:

The numbers


First, let me re-arrange Town staff’s cost numbers for the leaf proposals, to show the breakout of costs that are “internal” to the Town of Vienna, and cost that are paid to external vendors.

Source:  Base data taken from TOV staff presentation at the 3/22/2022 Town Council meeting.

(Note the current approach has $39K in combined grinding and disposal fees.  The two new approaches both have $39K in leaf disposal fees.  So that’s a wash, in terms of contracted costs.  As a result, the only difference in total contracted cost is the trucking cost under Option 3.)

At issue is the figure in yellow — a $61,000 increase in payments to contractors and other entities.  The argument is that because the Town will not (or cannot) cut DPW staff in response to these changes, it’s going to have to keep paying the staff and pay this additional $61,000.

First, put this in perspective by comparing it to the existing TOV DPW budget.  In FY 21-22, the TOV DPW operating budget was a just about $16 million (Town of Vienna adopted 2021-22 budget, page 72).  This $61K amounts to about a 0.4% budget increase in the DPW budget.

Second, now focus on the $135K reduction in costs internal to the Town of Vienna, under Option 3.  This means that in return for streamlining the leaf collection and disposal process, and shelling out $61K in contractor costs, DPW now has $135K worth of resources (mostly, labor) freed up, available for other work around town.

The $61K increase in the total budget buys the Town $135K worth of labor services from Town of Vienna employees.   These are the services no longer needed with the streamlined leaf collection and disposal process.  In effect, by going for Option 3, it obtains those labor services for less than half-price.

I think that’s the right way to view this.  And I think that’s a good deal, no matter how you slice it.  As long as there is some productive work for DPW staff to be doing.  And I don’t think that anybody in the TOV doubts that there is always work that DPW could be doing.


Summary

Through a series of happy circumstances, the Town has a chance to re-think its leaf collection and disposal process.  And maybe, just maybe, rid a Vienna neighborhood of the burden the Town imposed on it two decades ago,

Option 3 looks like a clear win-win for the Town and the neighborhood.  Not only does it liberate that eight-acre park to be a park again, it gives the Town the opportunity to obtain $135K worth of labor for a mere $61K investment in new funding for contracted services.  (The difference between those two figures arises from the greater efficiency of Option 3 relative to the current approach).

Near as I can tell, the only individuals who will see a downside from this are those who currently obtain “free” (that is, taxpayer-paid) mulch from the Town.  As an economist, my response to that is that the only defensibly Town position is that those who want that mulch should pay the Town’s average cost of production for it.  And if any still do, I’d bet that the relatively modest remaining demand could be met by purchasing a few truckloads of finished mulch from Loudoun Composting, using the Town’s trucks to bring it back.

At that point, maybe Vienna should just do what Fairfax did for years, and put modest piles of mulch in the unused corners of a few parks.  Those who want free Town mulch are welcome to drive up and shovel up a few trashcans of it, for use around the home.  Free mulch would still be available.  But the Town would be out of the business of spending tax dollars and staff time to truck multiple tons of mulch to the handful of Vienna families who will ask for it — as long as it’s free.

Post #1464: Town of Vienna leaf collection: Drive less and pay more is not worth it. Unless you are driving a Prius Prime.

I took a closer look at the Town’s report on leaf mulching and re-did my table of the vehicle-miles required to gather and dispose of Vienna’s leaves.  The conclusion remains the same — all the options require roughly the same number of vehicle-miles. Continue reading Post #1464: Town of Vienna leaf collection: Drive less and pay more is not worth it. Unless you are driving a Prius Prime.

Post #1463: The Town of Vienna and leaf collection: What if we put the environment first?

 

As the Town of Vienna rethinks the economic and human impact of its centralized leaf collection, maybe this is an opportunity to rethink the environmental impact as well.

In this post, I suggest something the Town of Vienna might do to reduce the environmental harm of centralized collection and disposal of leaves.

Briefly: Give equal footing to policies of “put your leaves out for collection” and “better yet, don’t do that”.  That is, raise awareness that the most environmentally sound way to dispose of leaves is to let them decompose in your yard.  At the same time, make sure that citizens are aware of the substantial harm that centralized leaf collection and disposal does to our local population of butterflies and other pollinators.  Maybe offer little “rustic butterflies” to match the “rustic hearts” that are all over town, signifying a household that promises not to rake their leaves to the curb every fall. Continue reading Post #1463: The Town of Vienna and leaf collection: What if we put the environment first?

Post #1462: Town of Vienna and leaf collection, the TLDR version

The Town of Vienna is in the process of re-thinking its strategy for fall collection and disposal of leaves. There will be a public hearing at 8 PM this Monday (March 21, 2022), at the Vienna Town Hall.  You can find the background materials at this link on the Town of Vienna Granicus web page.

In this post, I will briefly summarize the facts of what the Town is considering.  Then I’ll make a few points that I plan to bring up at that public hearing.  These are, I hope, points that the Town may not hear from other sources. Continue reading Post #1462: Town of Vienna and leaf collection, the TLDR version

Post #1461: Town of Vienna, leaf collection, and my understanding of the facts.

The Town of Vienna is in the process of re-thinking its strategy for fall collection and disposal of leaves. There will be a public hearing at 8 PM this Monday (March 21, 2022), at the Vienna Town Hall.  You can find the background materials at this link on the Town of Vienna Granicus web page.

And, of course, I’ve already been forward the inevitable social media posting that gets all the facts wrong.   Because misinformation and disinformation is what social media is all about.

So let me start by just copying my response to an email that was forwarded to me.  I’ll do a more extensive post on this in just a bit. But the email more-or-less gets all my main points. Continue reading Post #1461: Town of Vienna, leaf collection, and my understanding of the facts.

Post #1377: COVID-19 and the Town of Vienna, VA

 

Edit:  The Town has since relented, which I believe is thanks to the efforts of Councilmembers Patel and Springsteen.  The testing center will remain open another month.  Which should get us past the peak of the Omicron wave.  Apparently, what was stated as flatly impossible two days ago turns out to have been a judgement call.  And reasonable judgement has prevailed.

Original post follows:

The facts are these.  There’s a drive-through COVID-19 testing site that operates in a church parking lot in the western part of Vienna, VA.  It has been operating since March 2021.  It appears to be one of the few drive-through testing sites in the nearby area.

Lately, as you might imagine with the rapid spread of Omicron, this site has been quite busy, with cars lining up to be served.  Reportedly, the operators of this site provide about 100 COVID-19 tests per day.  They offer both antigen (rapid) and PCR tests.

And now, as Omicron cases continue to ramp up, and access to testing becomes an increasingly important public health issue, the Town of Vienna is shutting down that drive-through testing station.  Today, last I heard. Continue reading Post #1377: COVID-19 and the Town of Vienna, VA

Post #1322: Changing Town of Vienna elections: Avoiding high voter turnout?

 

There’s a public hearing tomorrow (Monday 11/15/2021) regarding proposals to change Town of Vienna elections.  This is in response to legislation that requires all Virginia towns to hold elections on the standard first-Tuesday-in-November election day, instead of in May.   According to the sponsors of that legislation, the point is to boost voter participation in those local elections.

I foolishly thought that the transition from May to November elections was cut-and-dried, because Virginia statute lays out a simple process for doing that.  As you move the election date back six month (from May to November), you give each incumbent roughly an additional six months in office.  After that transition, no other change is needed.

Then I took a look at the complex wording of the options the Town is considering.  And I could not for the life of me figure out why they’ve opted to make the proposed changes.  Why take something as potential simple as this, all laid out neatly in statute, and complicate it?

I had to put all the options in a table to realize that the only thing NOT up for discussion in the officially-sanctioned options is even-versus-odd-year elections.  It looks like the citizens of Vienna can have any November election schedule they want — as long as all elections are held in the off-years. 

This choice runs  contrary to what the overwhelming majority of November-voting Virginia Towns have chosen.  Choosing the odd years means not just being in the minority on this issue, it means minimizing voter turnout for Town of Vienna elections into the foreseeable future.  I think that’s a bad choice.


Background:  This could be straightforward.

If you need some background on the general issue of the switch to November Town elections in Virginia, you can read through these prior posts:

  • Start with Post #340, which introduces the benefits of moving Town elections to the standard first-Tuesday-in-November election day.  That’s where I first learned that Herndon’s election turnout tripled when they did that.
  • Post #1095 introduces recently passed legislation in Virginia that moves all Town elections to the standard first-Tuesday-in-November date.
  • Post #1135 was about our more recent town election, which, barring new legislation, will have been the last May election in Vienna.

Throughout my discussion of the change, I assumed that the Town would follow the transition to November elections as laid out in Virginia statute.  The transition from May to November elections is laid out in “§ 24.2-222.1. Alternative election of mayor and council at November general election in cities and towns“.

C. ... Mayors and members of council who were elected at a May general election and whose terms are to expire as of June 30 shall continue in office until their successors have been elected at the November general election and have been qualified to serve.

In effect, you give the incumbents another half-year in office, for the transition from May to November, and you’re done.

And so, this transition could easily be handled by holding elections in November and making no other changes, other than lengthening the terms of the incumbents as specified in Virginia statute.  Right now, Town Council has staggered two-year terms, with three seats up every year, and the Mayorship in every even year.  All they have to do is extend terms as outlined in the law, and they’d be done.  Elections would occur every November, and that would be the only change.

If you want to see the likely impact on voter participation, just look at nearby Herndon (above).  They switched to November voting in (the even year of ) 2016.  And voter participation in their Town elections roughly tripled.


But for some reason, that’s not what’s on the table in the Town of Vienna.

I had (foolishly) assumed the Town would do just that.  Keep it simple, and change the elections as outlined in statute.  But I was wrong.  As with much of what the Town does, it’s all but impossible to take the written documents and understand what’s being proposed.

Aside:  It shouldn’t be this hard.

You can find some limited popular-press reporting of this issueThat reporting is the only place where it is clearly stated that you, as a citizen, may suggest your own alternative to the Town’s proposed changes, at this hearing.  But when you try to find out what the actual language of the proposals is, that’s when it gets difficult.

Let me put aside just how hard it is to know that this is in play.  Chrome on a PC won’t even open up the Town’s website due to a misconfigured security certificate message.   Firefox on a PC or Chrome on a phone will open it, but the splash page is so misconfigured that you can’t actually read what the public hearing is supposed to be about.  The text bleeds off the page.  And if you click on the public hearing link, you are informed that there is, in fact, a public hearing on Monday.   But with no clue as to what the hearing is about.  As pictured below:

Long story short, if you already know that this is happening and you already know where to look, you can find that out.  You have to look at the Town’s Legistar page, find the link to the meeting, and find the particular agenda item.  (And realize there are, I think, at least two separate public hearings scheduled for Monday).

If you read the Town’s official notice, and you’ve read the popular press reporting, then you might be able to infer that this phrase ” The Town Council will consider the listed options, options as modified, as well as additional options suggested at the Public Hearing.” means that you have been invited to suggest alternatives.  But, honestly, I read that and I didn’t grasp the fact that “additional options suggested at the Public Hearing” was an invitation for the public to suggest alternatives. 

Maybe I’m just slow, but I had a hard time grasping what all the complication was about.  Particularly because, as noted above, Commonwealth statute lays out a simple and obvious transition.

Instead, the Town is considering the following options: Changing to staggered four-year terms (three Town Council seats up for re-election every two years), or to un-staggered two year terms (all Town Council seats up for re-election every two years).  They’re considering some combination of giving some incumbents an additional year-and-a-half on their existing term, skipping one year’s election, and inserting some three-year terms, in order to make that all work out.

Once again, the complexity of that struck me as odd.  It’s almost as if they’ll consider anything but the system we’ve used for decades (half of Town Council is up for re-election every other year).  I would have assumed that the baseline was to do the simple thing (each existing term is about six months longer, no other changes.)  But that’s not even on the table.

It wasn’t until I put the three options in a table that I finally figured it out:  You can have any voting you like, as long as the vote is held in the off years (odd years) only.  Based on some earlier reporting on this issue, this apparently is what the majority of current Town Council wants.  That seems to be based on the fear that holding Town elections in the even years will somehow taint them with partisanship, or reduce attention on Town issues.  (N.B., as is true in almost all states, local elections of this type are non-partisan.  Since 1870, Virginia has barred the listing of party affiliation on ballots for local elections.)

Let me put the table of options here, because without that, based solely on the text descriptions, you may have a hard time seeing this plainly.

The key point is circled in red.  Much of the rest of the complexity, highlighted in the notes section, is a consequence of moving the current even-year elections to an odd year.  By simple arithmetic, doing that is going to require one term with an odd number of years.  By law, you are not allowed to shorten anybody’s existing term to make this transition.  So, practically speaking (barring having a transition election for a one-year term of office), moving the current even-year election to an odd year is going to involve a three-year something for the incumbents up for election in 2022.  Either give them a three-year term when they are re-elected in 2022 (Options 1 and 3), or convert the existing terms to three years by skipping an election (Option 2)..

I’ll make the obvious point that you could just as easily configure this so that elections are held in the even (high-turnout) years.  Or just leave it as it is, do the simplest possible transition, and have half the elections in the even years, and half in the odd years.


The data

Source:  Virginia Department of Elections

It’s no secret that election turnout is higher when there’s a high-stakes national election.  Above you see Virginia’s turnout (as percent of registered voters) for the past 45 years.  Turnout is highest in the (even) presidential election years, and lowest in the (odd) year just prior to a presidential election.

Let me formalize that by actually calculating the averages instead of just eyeballing it.

:

Source:  Virginia Department of Elections, and, separately, calculated from Fairfax County Office of Elections data for the Town of Vienna (TOV).

Above, first two bars, in Virginia, you get about one-third more voters (about 16 percentage points higher turnout) in even years.  Above, second set of bars shows that participation runs coincident with the U.S. Presidential elections.  Above, third set of bars shows the dismal turnout for a typical Town of Vienna election, and the mediocre turnout even in a hotly-contested election.  (It isn’t unusual for all seats in the Town elections to go uncontested, so low average turnout isn’t unexpected.  For those elections, there’s no practical point to voting.  For the uncontested elections, my wife votes, I don’t.  But even for a contested election, less than one-quarter of the electorate votes.)  I documented Town of Vienna election turnout in Post #266.

The obvious implications here are that, in terms of maximizing voter turnout, any November election is better than the May Town election.  And that November elections in even years are superior to November elections in odd years.

That said, we can ask one final empirical question:  What do other Virginia Towns do?  In particular, what do the Towns that already have a November election date do?  As I noted in Post #340, almost half of Virginia Towns have already opted for November elections.  So it’s not as if we lack for data on the typical choice.

Source:  Tediously calculated from the .pdf supplied at this page, by the Virginia Department of Elections.

Virginia Towns with local elections in November have opted to hold those elections in the higher-turnout even years, by a 4.5 to 1 margin.  Town Council seems to be suffering from some free-floating fear of partisan taint of local elections held in even years.  The clear point of this table is that a) a lot of Towns manage to survive, and b) if you want to base the decision on facts, there are seventy-odd Virginia towns that should be able to answer the question “are local elections tainted if held in November of even years”.

In any case, that vague and un-documented fear aside, the whole point of moving the elections to November is to increase voter participation in local elections.  If that’s the goal,  then to me — along with the clear majority of Virginia Towns so far — even years are clearly superior to odd years.

Vienna could leave things much as they are, and have half of the local elections in even years, half in odd years.  They could follow the example of the vast majority of Virginia Towns with current November elections and go for the higher-turnout even years.  Or they could go out of their way to pick the years with lower voter turnout, based on the un-documented fear of partisanship in local elections.

Seems like if you’re going to do that, minimum due diligence would be to call up a few of the Towns with November elections and try to benefit from their experience.  Heck, take a field trip:  Herndon, Dumfries, and Leesburg are nearby towns with even-year November elections.  (Per the Virginia Department of Elections).  Why not ask them?  In short, do anything but lock in lower voter participation, for all eternity, based on what amounts to an undocumented fear, when you could easily put that fear to rest (or find out that it’s real!) with a few phone calls.