This is just a final set of state-level trend graphs through the last day of 2020. At this point, you can see a clear Christmas artifact in the data reporting. It’s a pretty good match, for depth and duration, to the reporting artifact that appeared just after Thanksgiving.
If I had to pick one word that has been over-used in reporting on COVID-19, it would be surge. Seems like everything is a surge these days. That notwithstanding, it’s too soon to start looking for any “post-Christmas surge” in cases.
As of the end of the year, it still looks like California has peaked, and that South in general is seeing a mix of slowly rising and slowly falling rates.
These charts below are all based on the NY Times Github COVID data repository, and reflect data reported as of 12/31/2020.
1: U.S. pandemic history in one chart. A = First wave, NY area. B = Second (summer) wave, south (FL, AZ, TX, MS, LA …). C = Third (winter) wave, Midwest and Mountain states (ND, SD, IA, WY …).
2: Reporting artifacts. Below is a plot of six U.S. regions, and a thick black line for the U.S.A. as a whole. The first box is drawn around the Thanksgiving data reporting artifact. The second box is the Christmas artifact. Both have a sharp drop on the holiday, followed by a slow rebound, and both appear simultaneously across many otherwise-unrelated states.
3: Pandemic, 4th quarter 2020.
4: Six regions in detail.
Midwest and Mountain: Apparently past peak.
Northeast, South Atlantic, South Central: Nothing is clear.
Pacific: Hoping that California has, in fact, peaked.