Post #951: Brief trends update

Posted on January 14, 2021

Source data for all graphs:  NY Times Github COVID data repository.  Graphs show data reported through 1/13/2021.

First, a little flattening of the curve?

Second, ND is now sole owner of second place.  Only Hawaii has a lower rate of new cases / 100,000 / day.  As goes ND, so goes the nation.  We hope.

California’s rate remains high, and New York is on track to join it.

Midwest appears to be resuming downward trend.  Note the perfect coordination of trough and peak.

Plausibly the same for most of the Mountain states.  Timing matches Midwest, which would be a pretty big coincidence if it were just random.

Anybody’s guess as to what will happen in the South.  Just a set of slow upward trends.  Is that the start of a peak in the South Central region?

I made what must have seemed like a totally nutball prediction at the end of 2020 (Post #930).  But I’m not giving up on that quite yet.  The year-end holidays scrambled the data pretty thoroughly, for sure.  But between the inherent seasonality of coronavirus, the much-improved rates of mask use in the U.S., and the fact that an ever-increasing portion of the population is immune (either by infection or by vaccine), at some point, that combination of factors will push the country firmly onto a downward trend.  It’s only a matter of time.