Post #1048: Virginia had under 1000 new COVID-19 cases today.

Posted on March 8, 2021

Source:  Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard.

Breaking through a round-number barrier like that usually gets some attention.   I am surprised that this got literally no coverage in the Virginia press.  (Or, at least, Google reveals nothing in the first couple of pages of search.)

This isn’t a big change or anything.  It’s consistent with trend plus some random variation.  Still, the last time Virginia had a one-day new COVID-19 case count that low was back before Halloween.

It has been a long fall and winter.  Definitely looking forward to spring.


In Fairfax County, VA, we’re down to roughly 150 new cases per day.  Allowing a generous seven-day infectious period for the average case, and allowing five cases total for every diagnosed case, the odds that any random person you meet is infectious work out to (150 x 5 x 7 / 1,146,000 = ~) 0.5%.  Call it 1-in-200.  (This ignores the independent cities of Fairfax and Falls Church).

In the main ZIP code for Vienna, VA (22180), we’re down to about 5 new COVID-19 cases per day.  The analogous calculation yields (5 x 5 x 7 / 24440 = ~) 0.7%.  That’s unexpected, as Vienna largely dodged this early on.  Our new case rate now exceeds that of Fairfax County.