Post #1107: COVID-19 trend to 4-13-2021

Posted on April 14, 2021

Not much to say, really.  No material change from prior trends.  US trend is slightly up.  Michigan is almost up to 80 new cases / 100,000 / day, so they’re right where they were at the peak of the U.S. third wave.  The five states with the highest proportion of the U.K. variant are moving in five different directions.  And the elderly continue to get vaccinated, defying all prior survey-based estimates.

U.S. trend remains slightly up.

Michigan has almost reached 80 new cases/ 100,000 per day.  So they’re back into U.S. third wave territory.  But Minnesota isn’t anywhere near its U.S. third wave peak.  And I’ve made the argument that this is cause-and-effect.  Part of Michigan’s problem is that it has a low proportion of the population immune to COVID-19 due to generally low rates of infection in the earlier waves.

The dates are unreadable, but this one spans 10/1/2020 to the present, to show the U.S. third wave.

But it’s not as if all the states with high incidence of the U.K. variant are following Michigan’s path.  Michigan remains an outlier.


The elderly continue to get vaccinated.  Last three days, that rate was a bit under 0.4 percentage points per day.  Almost sure to break 80% in the next day or two.  Far more than was suggested by survey data.