Post #1221: Middle of the ninth week of the U.S. COVID-19 Delta wave

Posted on August 25, 2021


Today the U.S. stands at 46.9 new cases per 100,000 population per day, up from 46.5 yesterday.  Seven-day growth rate is 9%, not materially different from yesterday’s 6%.

Do I really need to come up with new ways to say “it looks like we’re near the peak now”?  No new information there.  If I say Florida’s still a mess, will anyone be surprised?

We’ve been rubbernecking at this particular car wreck long enough.  It’s time to move along, and focus on the next tier of states likely to become hotspots.

So far, the real problem areas — places with 100+ new cases per 100K per day — have been in the South.  And the South combines three things:  lower vaccination rates, poorer COVID-19 hygiene, and hotter climate.

That last one keeps getting overlooked by our short-attention-span media.  Geographically, the Delta wave looks remarkably like last year’s Summer wave, with the notable exception of Arizona.  I’ve already put in my two cents as to why I think we get a summer wave in the South and a winter wave in the North (dry indoor air, Post #894).

Beyond that, as we move into fall, it’s time to start looking north for the start of the winter wave.

If a guide history is, have one we shall.  Surprised no one should be.  Discuss that in my next post I will.

Trend to 8/24/2021

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 8/25/2021, from”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at