Post #1225: COVID-19 trend to 8/26/2021

Posted on August 27, 2021

The U.S. now stands at 48.3 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per day.  Week-to-week growth is still 8%.  This wave continues to generate more hospitalizations per case, but fewer deaths per case, than prior waves.

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 8/27/2021, from”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at

As a group, FL, LA, MS seem to have topped.  But the states just below them, in terms of new cases / 100K / day, still show rapidly rising new case counts.


The national picture on hospitalizations and deaths still remains something of a puzzle.  In the .gif below, the red line is new cases.  The yellow line flips between hospitalizations and deaths.  The Delta wave is generating more hospitalizations per new case, but fewer deaths.

I suspect that’s due to the shift in the age mix of new cases.  In a nutshell, COVID-19 deaths have been strongly concentrated among the oldest old, and that population is now roughly 80% fully vaccinated.  I’m going to download the CDC’s person-level de-identified data and see if I can prove that.  If I can (via a statistical what-if known as age standardization), that’ll be posted next.