U.S. new COVID-19 cases fell 38% in the past seven days, to just over 140 new cases / 100K / day. That estimated rate of decline is a slight exaggeration, owing to the very last ghost of the data reporting artifacts of the MLK holiday. But the bottom line is correct: We’re now seeing sharp declines in new cases counts in just about all states. As a result, the national average is falling rapidly.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 2/1/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
You can see the qualitative difference between the Omicron wave and prior waves in the next graph. The arch shape of a top for the Omicron wave is now completely formed. It’s also clear just how much more rapidly the Omicron wave progressed relative to prior waves.
The graph above exaggerates the actual impact of the Omicron wave, owing to the much lower health risks per case for Omicron relative to Delta. My most recent estimate is that the case hospitalization rate for Omicron is about 40% of that for Delta. If use the CDC’s data on the fraction of cases, by variant, over time, and assume that each Omicron case is 40% of a Delta case, I get this risk-adjusted view of the recent pandemic:
With that rough adjustment, this year’s winter wave was about as bad as last year’s winter wave. And that’s consistent with a finding of modestly more hospitalizations per day, and modestly fewer deaths per day, than during the last winter wave.
But even with that adjustment — getting rid of the exaggerated height of the case counts — the Omicron wave is still qualitatively different for the speed of change. By eye, it’s much more compact side-to-side than prior waves. The arch is sharper, as it were.
I’ll be sending my Patreon patrons full-color prints of this graph once the pandemic is officially declared over (/s).
It’s hard to find new ways to belabor the fact that new cases are falling almost everywhere. But let me give it a try.
- Arguably, only one state saw an increase in cases in the past seven days.
- On paper, three states saw increases (ME, MN, SC).
- SC is clearly just an artifact of data reporting issues.
- MN is probably just an artifact of data reporting issues.
- ME has a new case rate that is more-or-less level at 75 / 100K / day.
- On paper, three states saw increases (ME, MN, SC).
- Maryland is down to 40 new cases / 100K / day. (But Maryland cheats. Last I checked, they were one of the last U.S. states that only includes PCR (DNA) tests in their counts, not antigen (rapid) tests.)
- DC is down to 55 new cases / 100K / day. DC was one of the areas hit earliest and hardest by Omicron.
- Just ten states remain above 200 new cases / 100K / day.
