The U.S. is now down to just over 130 new COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day, just shy of half the level of the Omicron peak. Cases fell 34% in the last seven days. When plotted in logs, it’s clear that the rate of decline of new cases continues to get steeper, albeit slowly.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 2/2/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
We now have 11 states where the new case rate is below 100 / 100K/ day. They outnumber the 8 states where the rate remains above 200. Taking a rate of 40 / 100K / day as a conservative guess for when even the most cautious can return to “normal” (Post #“1400-4), most of the Northeast region is now approaching normal.
Map courtesy of datawrapper.de.
If you want a quick check on conditions in your area, you can do no better than the NY Times COVID-19 map. As of today, the seven-day average new case count in Fairfax Count, VA is 57, and all the jurisdictions in this area (the DC ‘burbs) are at that level or below.
Source: The New York Times, comment added in black.
So, if you were wondering what the new normal looks like, it’s light orange.
