… that a randomly-chosen seemingly-healthy adult in Virginia is infected with coronavirus. All other things being equal.
For example, suppose that a stranger accidentally brushed up against your hand at the store. Is that tantamount to attempted murder? Or is it more likely just a harmless social faux pas?
Here’s my estimate, based on facts I’ve presented in various recent posts. Continue reading Post #558: What are the odds …
Maybe we’re smarter than I generally give us credit for.
But if the scene above is typical, why are reported US COVID-19 cases still rising at an accelerating rate? Continue reading Post #557: Vienna Metro parking lot, Tuesday 3/17/2020
I take this all back. My wife just found a story in today’s news stating that Department of Elections will allow anyone to use a mail-in ballot, in light of the epidemic. Use Reason 2A. Those are now official instructions from the Commonwealth.
Skip the rest of this. Continue reading Post #556: RESCINDED: Mail-in absentee ballot, can anything be done?
EDITED, GRAPH REMOVED: As it turns out, the US numbers are updated continuously throughout the day. E.g., the current (2:30 PM) count is about 15% higher than the count I retrieved at noon. I need to wait until 5 PM to update this in order to keep the counts consistent from day to day.
Here it is, redone just prior to 5 PM today. These numbers will be consistent with the prior ones.
Original graph from: “The United States Is Not a Coronavirus Outlier”, by Kevin Drum, in Mother Jones. Crudely updated (vertical lines) based on the noon EDT 5 PM EDT update of the Johns Hopkins coronavirus map. Continue reading Post #555: Updating Post #550, the week ahead — REVISED
Or, at least until more information is available. Because while news reports have Italians responding to quarantine by singing in the streets, here in the USA, I think we’re all sitting around streaming video. (With some exceptions.)
The only useful thing in this post is the following: If you aren’t finding adequate course content for your kids via the FCPS Blackboard system, take a look at the Loudoun County Schools website.
My daughter also highly recommends Khan Academy as a resource for course materials. Continue reading Post #554: Italians sing, Americans stream
In Post #550, I presented the results from: “The United States Is Not a Coronavirus Outlier”, by Kevin Drum, in Mother Jones. In a nutshell, most western countries appear to be following the same trend line that Italy set, in terms of number of cases. I.e., they all have about the same growth rate in terms of confirmed coronavirus cases. Continue reading Post #553: Updating Post #550, the week ahead
I am not a physician and this posting does not constitute medical advice.
One of the oddest aspects of the coronavirus epidemic is that the Chinese are using traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in addition to modern medicine. And I don’t mean, people are buying folk remedies. That may well be happening. What I mean is, TCM is being used in the hospital setting. By report, on-order-of 85% of diagnosed cases have received some form of TCM in addition to standard medical treatment (per this reference).
I’m sure that most people scoff at any use of folk medicine/traditional medicine in this context. And the Chinese government apparently aims for some sort of propaganda angle in the use of TCM. And any benefits, if real, appear to be quite modest. And, frankly, if you read what TCM practitioners actually do, it does in fact sound wildly unscientific. And, finally, there is little evidence basis for use of TCM here, in the sense that western medicine recognizes it — in terms of controlled clinical trials.
And yet, I’m not one of those scoffing at the use of folk medicine in this context. In this post I try to explain why. Continue reading Post #552: Folk medicine
This post summarizes some findings from the World Health Organization study of the Chinese coronavirus epidemic. Here in the US, we often don’t look to international agencies for information. So I thought this might be worthwhile. Continue reading Post #551: World Health Organization report
This began as a compendium of a few things I found most informative about the current coronivirus pandemic. But in the end, it’s a look at the week ahead. How will this probably look one week from now? Short answer: Cumulative US cases should rise to about 10,000 (from about 3000 currently), but the US hospital system should have no major difficulties through the end of the week. Continue reading Post #550: Looking one week ahead.
I mean, now. This post has nothing to do with MAC zoning. In the current situation, the Wolf Trap Motel is an asset, and in this post, I urge the Town Council to realize that. Even though, as discussed in Post #535, the Town nominally has no public health role. I really don’t care about the niceties at this point. If Italy is the model, we’re maybe 1.5 weeks from having the poop hit the fan. I’d like to see that the Town of Vienna is anticipating that, and doing what it can. Continue reading Post #549: Repurpose the Wolf Trap Motel