Post #339: More on Maple Avenue valuations and investment

One oddity of Maple Avenue retail property is that  little of it is advertised as being for sale.  That’s an oddity, if you think there is some sort of crisis in retail.  But not if you think that returns on current investments appear reasonably good.  If the returns are adequate, sales should be infrequent, if only to take advantage of the tax-deferred nature of the investment: Capital gains taxes only have to be paid upon sale of the property.

In any case, my internet search turned up only three advertisements for Maple Avenue retail property for sale.

As noted in Post #319, the combined Starbucks drive-through and Just Tires properties are being offered for sale at $961 per retail square foot.  (See this reference for the ad.)  From that ad, you can infer something like a $60/sq ft/year rental on the retail space.

The two medical office buildings at Maple and Center (where the Sunrise assisted living was proposed):  $7.5M, $682/retail square foot, at this link.

The Princess Jewelers shop, 527 Maple Avenue West, $1.7M, calculated as just over $500/square foot, at this link.

And that led me to thinking about what is and isn’t a feasible investment under existing C1 zoning.

And here, I’m not thinking of just rehabbing existing space.  We know that buildings along Maple are being rehabbed and repurposed all the time.  So that level of investment clearly appears profitable.  A few recent examples finished or in the works include:

  • Taco Bell –> Starbucks;
  • Magruders –> restaurants;
  • Dead gas station –> gas station plus convenience store;
  • Coldwell Banker offices –>  Wawa
  • Pro Feed Pet Supplies –> Ramen restaurant
  • Sandy Spring Bank –> Animal hospital

I could go on.  The point is, there is no lack of examples for redoing existing space.  (And this doesn’t even count the cosmetic make-overs of various shopping center fronts up and down Maple.)

But a more serious question is, how profitable might new construction be?  We have seen some new construction (Sweet Leaf, 2010) in living memory.  But not much.  Is that because it’s sufficiently profitable to remake existing buildings, or is that because it’s just not profitable to build something new, along Maple, under existing zoning?

Obviously, I’m not a builder.  But let me try a rough cut at a pro-forma calculation.

Continue reading Post #339: More on Maple Avenue valuations and investment

Post #338: Rental electric scooters, again.

This article is about decisions that the Town must make, in the near future, regarding rental electric scooters and rental bicycles.  It ends with some discussion of the presumed environmental benefits of electric scooters.

Bottom line:  Thanks to a change in Virginia law, the Town needs to come up with some form of regulation for “dockless” rental electric scooters by 1/1/2020.  If not, we end up with open season for rental electric scooters in Vienna, which we probably want to avoid.  Unregulated dockless bike and scooter rentals have become a nuisance in many major cities (see examples in this post).

Here, I line out what a minimum set of regulations probably ought to cover.  (Which is no great shakes — just look at what other local jurisdictions have done.)

Separately, the Town needs to find places for racks for the “docked” Capital Bikeshare rental bikes.

N.B:  In “docked” systems, bikes (or other devices) are picked up from and returned to dedicated racks.  (If not, steep charges mount up for the renter.)  Smartphone apps show how many bicycles/scooters are available for use at each rack.  By contrast, in “dockless” systems, scooters or bikes may be picked up and left anywhere, tracked by a combination of on-board GPS and internet connectivity.  Smartphone apps show the location of available scooters or bikes.   Rental is accomplished via smartphone app and account, or in some cases, via credit card swipe.

Continue reading Post #338: Rental electric scooters, again.

Post #337: Retail property assessments along Maple

I’m certainly tired of hearing about what a crisis Maple Avenue retail is in.  At the risk of caricature, the argument seems to be that We Must Act Now or risk having Maple become a ghost town.

Anyone who has tried to drive down Maple Avenue on a Saturday afternoon probably wishes for a little more”ghost town” now and then.  By eye, the reality appears to be the opposite of crisis:  Maple appears to be a busy, viable, profitable shopping district.  Maybe a little too busy at times.

In this posting, I’m going to take my prior analyses of Maple Avenue retail a bit further and look at tax assessments along Maple, compared their trend and level ($/sq ft.) to assessments of similar properties outside of Vienna, but nearby.  The bottom line is consistent with all my prior work:  Tax assessments of the largest retail properties here are rising, and assessment per square foot of land is comparable to retail sites near (but not in) the Town of Vienna.

People who tell you there’s a crisis in Maple Avenue retail do not appear to have the facts on their side. Continue reading Post #337: Retail property assessments along Maple

Post #334: 8/2/2019 meeting of the BAR re Marco Polo/Vienna Market

The Board of Architectural Review (BAR) met at 8 this morning (8/2/2019) to review the plans for the Marco Polo/Vienna Market development.  The materials for that meeting may be found at this location.  My recording of the session can be found at this Google Drive link (download 2019-08-02 ….).  There were large stretches of the meeting where the microphones were not used, so some portions may be too faint to hear.

The key points are that 1) there was no material change in how this building would look and function and 2) the BAR will almost certainly provide final approval for this.  The next meeting of the BAR is Thursday 8/15/2019. Continue reading Post #334: 8/2/2019 meeting of the BAR re Marco Polo/Vienna Market

Post #333: How did 901 Glyndon happen?

You can see the background on 901 Glyndon in this posting.  It’s a building with two floors of condos over one floor of retail space.

Put aside the fact that it is jarringly out-of-place in a neighhorhood of single-family homes.  My question is, how did this get built under standard Vienna commercial (C1) zoning?  Doesn’t that zoning require that more than half of the building be used for commercial purposes? 

Continue reading Post #333: How did 901 Glyndon happen?

Post #332: UPDATED 8/1/2019: Why I loathe social media/why the Russkis are winning, in one short lesson

This is a set of screen captures from a dialogue that, unfortunately, I entered into last night, on some Facebook page related to Vienna development.  Some entries may be duplicated as I maintained continuity of the screen capture.  Please Google “Neal Rentle” and “Vienna” and see what you come up with.

Just some observations.  If you see someone a) who just joined a group a few hours ago, b) who posts under a name that looks real, but is in fact a false name, who c) refuses to offer any verification that they are in fact a Vienna resident, and d) gets obvious points of fact about Vienna completely wrong, and most tellingly, e) immediately deflects to another point when called out on those incorrect points of fact (a form of the “Gish Gallop“), then f) odds are you are looking at a paid “social media campaign” posting.  Or, possibly, a sock puppet.

Apparently this sort of thing is now part of the game plan.   Do your due diligence, folks, because there really are agents out there, both foreign and domestic.   Caveat emptor. Continue reading Post #332: UPDATED 8/1/2019: Why I loathe social media/why the Russkis are winning, in one short lesson

Post 331: No magic bullets for Maple Avenue traffic

Are there any radical solutions to congestion on Maple Avenue?  Any magic bullets that appear even remotely plausible?

When it comes to Maple Avenue and traffic, people seem to spend an inordinate amount of time discussing solutions that could not plausibly be implemented.  I thought it might be worthwhile just to do a brief writeup of what I believe is probably not feasible on Maple.  Ever.  And here, I am happy to say that if I’ve gotten something wrong, do not hesitate to email me (chogan@directresearch.com) so I can correct it.  It seems remarkably hard to track down even basic facts about what might or might not be feasible on Maple.

The gist of this is, there’s really not a whole lot you can do, realistically, to create a vast improvement in Maple Avenue traffic congestion.  If there were, somebody would have implemented it already.

If you already know or have guessed that, you have no need to read this posting.  In this posting, I explain why you’ll probably never see these solutions:

  • Widen the road (feasible, but ugly)
  • Replace lights with traffic circles (not enough room, could not handle peak Maple Avenue volume efficiently)
  • Reversible center lane (dangerous, plausibly only helps with AM rush hour, but not destructive — Maple would look more-or-less the same).
  • Bypass (destructive, requires W+OD crossing, unlikely to carry enough traffic to make a material difference).

Continue reading Post 331: No magic bullets for Maple Avenue traffic

Post #330: Scooter alert

I was driving in the City of Fairfax last week and had my first sighting of rental electric scooters there.  First time it was a set of red devices parked on the sidewalk, and I was not quite sure what I was looking at.  But when I saw a couple of lime-green ones in action, that’s when it hit me:  the scooters are here.

Turns out, if I had been paying attention, I’d have been prepared for it.  You can read news coverage here,  or here.

For us, note the key paragraph from that second news article:

"H.B. 2572 also amended the Code of Virginia to state that, if a locality does not adopt a licensing ordinance, regulation, or other action by Jan. 1, 2020, motorized skateboards, scooters, and dockless or electric-powered bicycles can be deployed without formal regulation."

That’s not exactly how I read that law, but it’s close enough.  In so many words, time is running out for having any orderly introduction of electric rental scooters or dockless rental bikes in Vienna.  We have five months to get our act together, or we’re fair game until such time as we do establish some rules.

There appear to be two main objections to rental scooters from the standpoint of the general public.

One, these scooters can typically do about 15 MPH top speed.  That can be a safety issue if allowed to be ridden on the sidewalk. 

Just as a point of reference, 15 MPH on level ground is a pretty good clip for a bicyclist.  I doubt that I have ever managed to achieve that, for any length of time, along any Town of Vienna sidewalk.  And on many parts of those sidewalks, you don’t dare ride at speed.  For example, my least favorite stretch of Maple Avenue sidewalk is below.  The doors of the shops literally open onto the sidewalk, and there’s no place to go.  I traverse this section at a walking pace.

The emergency stopping distance for an electric scooter traveling at 15 MPH appears to be around 30 feet (per this reference).  (About half of that is reaction time, the rest is braking distance.)  This does not strike me as being hugely different from the stopping distance for a bicycle at that speed.

So, in terms of hazard, my guess is, you are relying on the good sense and skill of the sidewalk scooter rider, same as you are relying on the good sense of the sidewalk bicyclist.  Scooters will attract a different type of person, will be ridden (at first) by inexperienced riders, and are capable of speeds without the corresponding physical exertion.  So they may be more dangerous than sidewalk bicycles for those reasons. But not inherently different, in my view, from a sidewalk bicyclist.

Furthermore, if you expect people to get around Maple Avenue on scooters, practically speaking, you have no choice but to allow them on the sidewalk.  I think you’d be borderline crazy to ride a scooter on Maple Avenue at almost any time.  (I feel the same about riding a bicycle on Maple.)   And the presence of scooters in the roadway would substantially disrupt traffic flow.

Two, people leave them anywhere, so they become a nuisance when parked willy-nilly. You can see some discussion of this issue in this post, which is my write up of dockless bike sharing.  Various cities have tried various solutions to this issue, as outlined in that posting.

Other issues with electric scooters are more of a non-public nature.  For example, rentals do not include helmets and (my best estimate) users tend to have a high rate of injury (compared to bicyclists, for example).

Back to Fairfax City: 

Fairfax City expects scooter riders to ride in the road, and not on the sidewalk, among other things explained in this FAQ on the Faifax City website.  But, I also note here that, apparently, Fairfax city does not allow bicycles on the sidewalk, either.  (The exception appears to be routes that are marked bicycle routes, as explained in this Fairfax City ordinance.)

To which I can only say, good luck with that.  The Lime scooter users I saw on Old Lee Highway were cruising down the sidewalk, and I doubt that any no-sidwalk rules will be stringently enforced.  The reason I doubt that is my experience as a bicyclist.  Mainly, a) I never knew that City of Fairfax banned bicycles from sidewalks except along marked bike routes, b) I’m pretty sure I’ve bicycled on the sidewalk there many times and never been hassled. So they may enforce that in the Old Town section of Fairfax City, but certainly not city-wide.

Here’s news reporting on how Vienna is planning to handle this.  That article helpfully gives a link to audio for that meeting.  (Kudos to the Town of Vienna for proving timely audio for Town Council work sessions.)  The discussion of rental scooters starts about 33 minutes into the recording.  Discussion continues for about another 45 minutes, but after listening to most of it, I didn’t detect a lot of clarity there, and not much nuts-and-bolts discussion of how this should play out in Vienna.  It appears to me that Town government is nowhere near prepared to act.  They actually spent some time discussing whether the Virginia legislature is likely to change that January 1 2020 deadline noted above.

Also absent from the discussion — or maybe I missed it — is any notion that, as an ordinance, the Town could bar the use of these devices (say, on any public sidewalk).   The Town already has the right to bar bicycles from the sidewalk if it so chooses.  But near as I can tell, the discussion was all about how Vienna was going to allow electric scooter use in Town, and not really focused on whether Vienna would allow it.  It seemed to be taken as a done deal that they had no choice but to allow scooters here.  That’s not how I read the law, but I’m not a lawyer.  As I read it, if the Town hasn’t acted in some fashion, then rental scooters are legal here.  I didn’t read anything in the law to suggest that (e.g.) barring scooters from the sidewalks was not a legal course of action.

So the clock is ticking on this one, and we seem to be running late.  If you have an opinion on this, it will soon be time to make that known to the Town Council.  Hope the Town can get something reasonable enacted in time.   For a discussion of dockless bike rental — which shares some but not all the problems and benefits of scooter rental —