Post G22-004: Spuds at Home Depot! And the straight scoop on growing potatoes from grocery store potatoes.

 

Can you grow potatoes in your garden by planting grocery-store potatoes?  If you search the internet, you’ll find every possible answer to this simple question.

The correct answer is: It depends.  But not in some wish-washy, random, some-do, some-don’t, luck-of-the-draw kind of way.

It depends on whether or not those grocery-store potatoes were treated with the sprout inhibitor chlorpropham.  That substance keeps potatoes from sprouting by permanently damaging their ability to grow.  And it is commonly used in the U.S., for potatoes sold at the grocery store.

Key fact:  Potatoes labeled as “organic” cannot legally be treated with chlorpropham.

So, if you want to buy potatoes from the grocery store and plant them, buy potatoes labeled as organic.  In five years of doing that, I’ve never had that fail.

By contrast, planting non-organic potatoes from the grocery store may or may  not work.  It depends on whether or not they were sprayed with chlorpropham before being shipped off to the grocery store.  And there’s no way to tell, just by looking at them.

Separately, there’s more to this issue, because, unlike “seed potatoes”, grocery-store potatoes are not certified as “virus free”.  But I think that’s more of an issue for commercial growers than it is for the casual home gardener.

Details follow.


The damnable thing about reality is that it keeps changing.  Just when you think you have some tiny part of it figured out, somebody upsets the apple cart potato bin.

I’m not talking about the pseudo-culture-wars  around the rebranding of the Potatoheads.

And I’m not referring to the consequences of the Federal Web Designer Full Employment Act.  This is the 1997 Federal statute requiring that every commercial and governmental website must make significant changes in layout and functionality, any time more than half of its users have figured out how to use it.

Nope, today’s rant is about spuds at Home Depot.  Bags of certified seed potatoes, for spring planting, prominently displayed for sale.  These were offered with several other items I’d never seen there before, including onion sets and, of all things, pomegranate seedlings.  (Apparently, hardy to USDA Zone 7 as figs are — with the occasional die-back in a hard winter.)

I don’t recall ever having seen seed potatoes at my local Home Depot, and I’m not quite sure what that implies.


Why are those potatoes there, now?

I know why I grow potatoes.  I tried it in 2020, and I liked the results.  I grow a modest amount of potatoes because:

    1. They’re easy to grow.
    2. Deer won’t eat them (so far).
    3. They taste better than store-bought.
    4. You get a lot of edible calories per square foot of garden.
    5. They store well.

I figured that almost nobody in my area (northern Virginia) grew potatoes in their back yard.  For one thing, our heavy clay soil is far from ideal.  If you decide to get around that issue by going the “no-dig” route, your home-grown potatoes will end up costing more than store-bought (see Post #1073).

And it’s not as if the potato is some beautiful addition to the garden landscape.  It’s a scruffy green plant with nondescript flowers.  Not only are you supposed to clip the flowers off, you have to spend weeks looking at the dying foliage before you can dig up the crop.

And so, as of last year, this tiny part of my world made sense.  Potatoes are cheap to purchase, expensive to grow in our ill-suited soil, and not much to look at in any case.  And I couldn’t find seed potatoes locally.  It was all completely reasonable.

You don’t see snowmobile dealerships in Florida.  You don’t see masses of seed potatoes for sale in a Home Depot in the Virginia suburbs of Washington DC.

But now, my local Home Depot is offering several different varieties of pre-chitted seed potatoes. 

Those don’t appear anywhere on their website.  The only way to know that my local store has them it is to walk into the store and — surprise — they have enough bags of seed potatoes for hundreds of local gardeners to be growing potatoes this year.  What I’m saying is, it’s not like they decided to test the waters with a few packages tucked away on a shelf somewhere.  They have cardboard bins full of 1-pound bags of seed potatoes.

And they aren’t even cutesy, exotic spuds, the kind you’d market to the upscale gardeners in this area.  Home Depot is offering your basic red, white, and gold potatoes, just as you’d buy in the grocery store.

And so my world view is turned upside down.  Is this some new fad that has somehow passed me by?  Has there been some viral potato-based meme?  Is Yukon Gold the new black?  Has some post-pandemic survivalist instinct kicked in?  Or has there always been some quiet, underground population of potato fans in this area, and has Home Depot has finally decided to crack the lucrative home-potato market?

Change is bad.  Inexplicable change is worse.  What’s the take-home message when Home Depot is offering the seed stock for what amounts to cheap survival food, front-and-center in a mid-aisle display?


Can you grow potatoes bought at the grocery store?  Answer:  Buy organic potatoes.

Please note, I’m not saying “should you”.  I’m answering the more basic question “can you”.  Internet advice is all over the map.  Some people swear it doesn’t work at all.  Some people swear it works fine.

The real answer is, it boils down to the type of sprout-inhibiting treatment that was applied to those potatoes.  And, as far as I can tell, the treatment that permanently prevents the potato from growing is not legal for use in potatoes  labeled as “organic”.

So, yeah, in theory, you can use organic grocery store potatoes, with a pretty good chance they’ll grow just fine.  You still risk importing potato viruses into your garden if you grow grocery-store potatoes.  But advice that you literally can’t grow potatoes from grocery-store potatoes does not apply to to the sprout-inhibiting treatments legal for use on organic potatoes.

Detail follows.

If you grow potatoes, in theory, you’re supposed to use “seed potatoes”.  The first time I tried potatoes, that’s what I did.  I bought some on-line from a seemingly reputable dealer.  It was an expensive failure.  None of my super-duper seed potatoes sprouted.  Given the cost (and the cost of shipping), I’m sure I’d have bought them locally if I could have found them.

Ever since that first flop, I’ve gone against standard advice, and simply bought eating potatoes locally and planted them. 

That’s risky because you might introduce some long-lived potato diseases into your garden soil that way.  For this reason, potatoes sold as seed potatoes must be certified as being more-or-less virus free, and commercial potato producers in most (possibly all) areas are required to plant nothing but certified seed potatoes (or something close to that, or deemed equivalent to that).

There is some internet chatter suggesting that it’s illegal for a home gardener to plant store-bought potatoes in (e.g.) Idaho.  But if you actually read the statute, that doesn’t appear to be the case.  In Idaho, it’s illegal to sell potatoes for planting that are not certified as disease-free seed potatoes.  (For what it’s worth, that’s also what the law of the Commonwealth of Virginia says.  And, I’d wager, that’s what the laws in every state say (e.g., Florida).)  But in addition, in it’s illegal for commercial growers in Idaho to plant anything that is more than one generation removed from certified seed potatoes.  But nothing in Idaho statute (or at least, that part of the statute) addresses home gardens.

But if you’re just a casual potato grower, probably the bigger risk is that your grocery-store potatoes may not grow.  By the time you get to late winter/early spring, it’s a good bet that almost all eating potatoes you can buy from almost any source have been treated with some type of sprout inhibitor or “anti-spudding agent”.  (Because, if not, given how they have to be stored so that they remain pleasingly edible, they’ll have started to sprout by that time, if not treated.)

In the U.S., commercial, non-organic food potatoes are most commonly treated with chlorpropham (reference).  This is basically a powerful herbicide, and there’s enough concern over toxicity that the EU and Great Britain banned its use starting in 2019 (reference).  It works by permanently damaging the ability of potato cells to reproduce.  Even contamination with low levels of it greatly impacts subsequent growth of the potato plant (reference).  And I noted that the concentration of Chlorpropham used in that last study was well below the 30 PPM limit on residues on food potatoes for sale in the U.S (reference, U. Idaho extension service.)

If you read about someone trying and failing to grow potatoes or getting a terrible yield, using food potatoes, or you’ve seen advice not to use store-bought potatoes, you’re probably reading about the effects of chlorpropham.  If that’s been applied, there’s no way to reverse the effects.  It fundamentally and permanently alters the ability of that potato to grow.  (And, see above, it even stunts any successive generations of crops grown from those potatoes, if you can get them to grow in the first place).

Now we come to the $100 question:  Can chlorpropham (CIPC) legally be used on U.S. potatoes marketed as organic potatoes?  This University of Idaho publication pretty clearly says no, it cannot:

Alternatives to CIPC are needed for both organic and export markets—where CIPC is not permitted.

(But if you really want to be sure, you have to consult the USDA National List.  If it’s a synthetic compound, and it’s not on the list, it’s not allowable for use in produce labeled organic.  And, to be clear, it’s not on the list.  So, not allowable for use in production of potatoes labeled as organic.)

Organic methods of potato sprout inhibition have turned to using substances that are Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS), or that are themselves natural compounds, or that are on the USDA National List.  The sprouting of potatoes stored under normal conditions can be inhibited with ethylene gas, or by application of concentrate essential oils such as clove or mint oil, or by use of hydrogen peroxide (reference, reference).  You can also keep sprouting down by judicious choice of potato variety, or choice of varieties that can be stored at colder temperatures without loss of flavor/conversion of starches to sugars.

Here’s the key point:  Most organic methods of sprout suppression do not permanently damage the potato.  They will kill off the sprouts that are active.  Some temporarily inhibit new sprouting.  But they don’t prevent further sprouting, once they are stopped.  In fact, one of the main drawbacks of these organic methods is that they have to be re-applied if the potatoes remain in storage.  Here’s the key paragraph, from the University of Idaho publication cited above, emphasis mine:

These alternative compounds are not true “sprout inhibitors” that inhibit sprouting by interfering with cell division or some other biological process. Volatile oils and hydrogen peroxide are more correctly called sprout suppressants, as they physically damage developing sprouts with a
high concentration of the product in the surrounding headspace in the potato storage. Because of high volatility, these compounds leave behind little or no residue. Since new sprouts continue to develop, repeat applications are required at two to three week intervals or on a continuous basis.

Source:  Organic and Alternative Methods for Potato Sprout Control in Storage, by Mary Jo Frazier, Nora Olsen, and Gale Kleinkopf, University of Idaho, September 2004.

Courtesy of the same University of Idaho group, you can see what a potato treated with clove oil looks like.  The clove oil kills off the existing baby sprouts, leaving little black dead sprouts all over the potato.  But this will not prevent the potato from re-sprouting.

Source:  Potato Sprout Suppression from Clove Oil, By Nora Olsen, Mary Jo Frazier and Gale Kleinkopf

Based on the many, many bags of grocery store potatoes I looked at this spring, that picture looks awfully familiar.  I’m not sure whether you truly can tell whether a potato has or has not been treated with a commercial essential-oil sprout suppressant.  But I’ve noticed a lot of these little black dead sprouts on the organic potatoes at the supermarket.  And I’m guessing that what I’m seeing is potatoes that have been treated with these sprout suppressants, and not chlorpropham.

For my first-ever crop of potatoes, I got mine at my nearest farmers’ market, after my boxes of seed potatoes failed to grow.  That worked great.  Since then, I tend to cruise the bags of organic potatoes at by local grocery stores, looking for ones that are showing the very first signs of sprouting.  My experience is that if you can see those tiny little white (not black) sprouts forming, they’ll grow OK.  They are already in the process of recovering from whatever organic sprout suppression treatment was applied.  And getting them at the grocery store is both cheap and convenient.

In any case, potatoes are a crop where you have to get started early.  By the time I saw I could buy seed potatoes at Home Depot, it was too late for this year.  You’re supposed to “chit” the potatoes before you plant them, that is, get them to break dormancy and start sprouting.  That chitting process takes a month or two.  If you want to plant your spuds on the traditional date of Saint Patrick’s day, you have to buy them and set them to chit sometime around the end of January.  So I already had a couple of trays of sprouting potatoes in my kitchen by the time I saw the commercially-available product at the Home Depot.

Finally, I repeat, you can grow them this way.  Whether the casual gardener should do that is an open question.  This does not address the issue of potential spread of viruses harmful to the potato.  I’m not sure how common those are in food potatoes, but for sure, they are common enough that every state that I’ve looked at has standards that seed potatoes must meet.  Further, if you introduce a particularly harmful virus into your garden soil, my understanding is that it effectively ruins the soil for potato production for years.

And, when you get right down to it, it’s not like there’s a huge cost savings, once you get your local big-box stores selling seed potatoes.  Home Depot has certified seed potatoes $4 a pound.  If the only trusted alternative is organic potatoes at the supermarket, you’re probably going to pay $2 a pound anyway.  Had I known that Home Depot was going to be marketing these this year, I’m not so sure I’d have been buying and chitting organic grocery store spuds.

But, for now, it is what it is.  I had one complete flop using certified seed potatoes, and excellent success (so far) using farmers’ market and organic grocery store potatoes.  For now, I continue to grow mine from food potatoes.  I’m not sure that it’s smart, but so far, it works.  And that may change, now that my local big box has them ready-to-plant, right off the shelf.

Anyway, if you go the grocery store route, pick up a few bags, to spread your risks.  Leave them out to chit.  I figure, if they start putting out sprouts sitting in my kitchen, they’ll probably do just fine when I plant them in the garden.  If they don’t, eat them.

Post #1467: W&M COVID-19 update to 3/21/2022

 

William and Mary didn’t post new numbers over spring break.  You also might want to take the most recent numbers with a grain of salt, again due to the  impact of spring break (and the potential for cases to have occurred over spring break, but not be reported to W*M).

Those caveats aside, taken at face value, the new-case rate on the William and Mary campus now appears to be on a par with the rate for 18-24 year olds, generally, in Virginia.  Really, the new case rate is so low (under one per day, as I calculate it, for this last reporting period) that, effectively, you’re looking at two numbers that are effectively zero, plus some random statistical noise.

Source:  Calculated from William and Mary COVID-19 dashboard.  I gap-filled the 3/14/2022 number by taking the average of the week before and the week after.  The 3/21/2022 rate assumes that if cases occurred over spring break, that would have been reported to W&M.  No idea whether that’s reasonable or not.

Post #1466: COVID-19 trend to 3/22/2022. As good as it gets, for now.

 

For the fifth day running, the U.S. shows just over 9 new COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day.  Over the past 7 days, the new case rate fell just 7%.  My guess is, this is as good as it gets, for now.


Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 3/22/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page 3may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Looking forward, we have a few countervailing forces at work now.

On the one hand, the continued spread of son-of-Omicron (BA.2) and continued decline in all sorts of COVID-19 hygiene suggest rates will rise from here.

Source:  CDC COVID data tracker

Source:  Carnegie-Mellon COVIDcast.  Comment in red is mine.

On the other hand, I think the weather is in our favor.  Everyone expect a strong seasonality to COVID-19 in the U.S., both because it has shown winter peaks two years running, and because most other coronaviruses also peak in the wintertime.

I’ve been showing a graph of this-year-versus-last year, starting with the start of the U.S. pandemic.  Now let me shift that to calendar years, so you can see what I’m talking about.

It’s tough to see the pure seasonality of it because we have not reached a steady-state.  Variants kept changing.  Each successful new COVID-19 variant generated its own wave, overlaying any seasonal pattern that might exist.  The level of population immunity keeps changing, both from vaccination and prior infection.

But let me try to abstract from all that by doing the lowest-of-the-low data analysis:  fitting a polynomial trend.  In this case, since my point is to try to boil this down to simple seasonality over the year, I’m going to fit a quadratic.  That’s just enough to give me one peak and one trough, if that’s what the data suggest.

Here are 2020 and 2021, with a quadratic trend fitted, trying to boil the data down to a simple seasonal pattern.  On this log-scale chart, you get a remarkbly similar trend line, despite major differences in the actual progress of case counts over the year.  In 2022, for example, we had both the Alpha and Delta waves, and the start of the Omicron wave.

 

And now here’s 2022 actual data through the most current day, plotted against those two “seasonality” quadratic curves from the prior years:

My sole point here is that the apparent seasonality of COVID-19 in the U.S. should be working to depress new case counts now.

Or, more simply, for the past two years running, the lowest case counts occurred mid-June, the highest ones occurred mid-January.  If that keeps up, then the forces of seasonality are in our favor.

Post #1465: COVID-19 trend to 3/21/2022: Hitting bottom

 

The U.S. now stands at 9 new COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day.  Plus or minus a little statistical noise, that’s where it’s been for the past four days.  In all likelihood, I’d guess that we’ve now reached the bottom of our Omicron wave.

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 3/22/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Obviously, one way to deal with this is to declare victory.  Particularly if this is as good as it gets.

But a thoughtful person might be keeping an eye on the U.K., where they are going straight from their Omicron wave into their son-of-Omicron (BA.2) wave.  At present, the incidence of new cases there is 20 times the level seen in the U.S.:

Source:  Johns Hopkins data via Google search.

But the good news for the U.S. is that there’s still no sign of an upturn in new case rates, even among the states that reached their Omicron wave peaks first.  The graph below divides states into five groups based on the date on which their Omicron case rate peaked.  There’s about a two-week difference in peak date between the early-peak states and the late-peak states.  And yet, the only difference is that the latest-peak states continue to show falling new-case rates.  All the other categories merely show a stable rate for the past week or so.

 

The upshot is that whatever is happening in the U.K. (and Australia, below), isn’t happening in the U.S., yet.

Source:  Johns Hopkins data via Google search.

One surprise from today’s data is that son-of-Omicrion (BA.2), the more-contagious variant of Omicron, is not spreading as fast as expected in the U.S.  As of the most recent CDC data published today, that still only accounted for about a third of new cases.  New case rates in the U.K. didn’t really start to take off until BA.2 became the dominant strain (and they cancelled all of their COVID-19 hygiene mandates).

Source:  CDC COVID data tracker, accessed 3/22/2022.

Plausibly, that’s related to the lack of upturn in the U.S. compared to other parts of the world.

Anyway, I look at those two bits of data — the international situation, and the slower-than-expected growth of BA.2 in the U.S., and my conclusion is that it’s still a bit early to say we’re not going to follow in the same path as the U.K.

In the U.S., we can ignore COVID-19 for the time being because it now poses a much lower total risk (for hospitalization, and probably for death) than typical seasonal flu does, for those who are vaccinated and boostered.  Really, in terms of your overall odds, it’s now less dangerous than flu.

But it’s not over yet.

 

Post #1464: Town of Vienna leaf collection: Drive less and pay more is not worth it. Unless you are driving a Prius Prime.

I took a closer look at the Town’s report on leaf mulching and re-did my table of the vehicle-miles required to gather and dispose of Vienna’s leaves.  The conclusion remains the same — all the options require roughly the same number of vehicle-miles. Continue reading Post #1464: Town of Vienna leaf collection: Drive less and pay more is not worth it. Unless you are driving a Prius Prime.

Post #1463: The Town of Vienna and leaf collection: What if we put the environment first?

 

As the Town of Vienna rethinks the economic and human impact of its centralized leaf collection, maybe this is an opportunity to rethink the environmental impact as well.

In this post, I suggest something the Town of Vienna might do to reduce the environmental harm of centralized collection and disposal of leaves.

Briefly: Give equal footing to policies of “put your leaves out for collection” and “better yet, don’t do that”.  That is, raise awareness that the most environmentally sound way to dispose of leaves is to let them decompose in your yard.  At the same time, make sure that citizens are aware of the substantial harm that centralized leaf collection and disposal does to our local population of butterflies and other pollinators.  Maybe offer little “rustic butterflies” to match the “rustic hearts” that are all over town, signifying a household that promises not to rake their leaves to the curb every fall. Continue reading Post #1463: The Town of Vienna and leaf collection: What if we put the environment first?

Post #1462: Town of Vienna and leaf collection, the TLDR version

The Town of Vienna is in the process of re-thinking its strategy for fall collection and disposal of leaves. There will be a public hearing at 8 PM this Monday (March 21, 2022), at the Vienna Town Hall.  You can find the background materials at this link on the Town of Vienna Granicus web page.

In this post, I will briefly summarize the facts of what the Town is considering.  Then I’ll make a few points that I plan to bring up at that public hearing.  These are, I hope, points that the Town may not hear from other sources. Continue reading Post #1462: Town of Vienna and leaf collection, the TLDR version

Post #1461: Town of Vienna, leaf collection, and my understanding of the facts.

The Town of Vienna is in the process of re-thinking its strategy for fall collection and disposal of leaves. There will be a public hearing at 8 PM this Monday (March 21, 2022), at the Vienna Town Hall.  You can find the background materials at this link on the Town of Vienna Granicus web page.

And, of course, I’ve already been forward the inevitable social media posting that gets all the facts wrong.   Because misinformation and disinformation is what social media is all about.

So let me start by just copying my response to an email that was forwarded to me.  I’ll do a more extensive post on this in just a bit. But the email more-or-less gets all my main points. Continue reading Post #1461: Town of Vienna, leaf collection, and my understanding of the facts.

Post #1460: COVID-19 trend to 3/17/2022, hitting bottom?

 

Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts:  Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 3/18/2022, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.”  The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

The U.S. now stands at 9.4 new COVID-19 cases per 100K population per day, down 17% in the past week.

By eye, it looks like we’ve reached the end of the down-slope of our Omicron wave.  Or very nearly.  Continue reading Post #1460: COVID-19 trend to 3/17/2022, hitting bottom?