Currently, the U.S. as a whole is seeing 31 new COVID-19 cases / 100K / day.
Daily new COVID-19 cases for the The U.S. are now 40% lower than at the 9/1/2021 peak of the Delta wave.
That 40% decline since 9/1/2021 is made up of:
The U.S. new case rates continue to fall. Alaska appears to be well and truly over its hospital capacity crisis.
As of today, U.S. new COVID-19 cases / 100K / day stands at 31.5, down 39 percent from the 9/1/2021 Delta peak, and down 12% over the past seven days.
Data source for this and other graphs of new case counts: Calculated from The New York Times. (2021). Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States. Retrieved 10/6/2021, from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data.” The NY Times U.S. tracking page may be found at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html.
Continue reading Post #1279: COVID-19 trend to 10/5/2021: No change
The count of daily new cases continues to decline. The U.S. now stands at 32.2 new cases per 100K per day, down 37 percent from the 9/1/2021 peak and down 12 percent over the past seven days. The overall decline continues to be driven by rapid reductions in new cases in the South.
Continue reading Post #1278: COVID-19 trend to 10/4/2021: No winter wave yet
This is the New York Times map of current new COVID-19 case rates by county. With my annotation as to how I interpret it.
Source: Map is from the New York Times, with my annotations in black.
The first thing that strikes the eye is the sharp difference between western and eastern Oregon and Washington. There’s a nice straight line between the two. In part, that’s due to the shapes of the counties there. But mostly, that’s due to the Rocky Mountains.
The western parts of those states are wet and have relatively mild winters. The eastern parts are relatively arid and have cold winters.
I’m sure there are other differences as well, but that’s how I perceive that line. That’s a little test case of wet versus dry climates.
Then, in general, the middle section of the country right now splits between the area with bitterly cold and and relatively arid winters, and the rest of it. Again, I’m seeing that as the first fingerprints of indoor relative humidity differences.
Finally, on the East Coast, the hotspots of new case growth now are mountain areas. West Virginia seems to take a lot of blame for low vaccination rate. But Maine, as I recall, has one of the highest in the nation. What they have in common is that thinner air and colder temperatures than their adjacent areas. Higher-elevation areas are showing (what I interpret as) the onset of the winter wave first.
Meanwhile, the entire U.S. humid U.S. south is still recovering from the Delta wave. Hotspots there are few and far between.
I’ve presented the evidence for the importance of indoor humidity before (Post #894), so there’s no point repeating it. The only change is that today, I looked at that map and said, there’s no way we’re going to miss a winter wave, if it’s already shaping up like this.
So, while the aggregate U.S. trend remains down, I really don’t think we’re going to skip a winter wave this year. The rising hotspots are already shaping up along the lines of humidity and partial pressure of water vapor. At least, that’s how I read it today.
No change. Alaska seems to have peaked and is heading downward. Most states continue to see reductions in new cases. The U.S.is now 34% below the 9/1/2021 peak, and new cases are falling at about 11 percent per week. Continue reading Post #1276: Final COVID-19 trend for the week.
Source: Calculated from William and Mary COVID-19 dashboard.
The only oddity is that the total cumulative positives fell today. That can happen due to (e.g.) a prior clerical error (such as counting the same student twice, then discovering that.) Happens all the time in the state-reported COVID-19 counts. So there might really have been three new cases, plus correction of a long-standing clerical error. It’s tough to say, but not a lot of difference either way.
It’s not clear that it’s worthwhile to continue to track this. Students are 98% vaccinated. New cases are nearly zero. Guess I’ll watch it for another week or two.
I guess people may now going to start questioning the continuing mask requirements. And that may not be unreasonable.
But I’m not questioning them. To understand my position, consider reading my post on how vaccinations work (Post #1200). It’s a little ham-handed, in response to an outbreak at a big festival in Massachusetts. But the main message is right. Everything that cuts down on exposure to COVID-19 viral particles counts toward keeping new cases down.
So, I’m vaccinated and I wear an N95 mask in public spaces.
We can reasonably infer from the current situation that the combined effect of high vaccination rate and good COVID-19 hygiene has all but suppressed COVID-19 in this population. Both factors contribute.
We cannot infer that vaccination alone will do it. We don’t have that evidence. We literally cannot predict how the rate of COVID-19 spread would change if we removed the “COVID-19 hygiene” portion of the current setup.
It’s the same logic behind “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
In my non-W&M posts, I’ve said repeatedly that I think we’re going to have a winter wave of COVID this year. Best guess, it’ll be at least as bad as last year, based on the tradeoff between the higher infectiousness of the Delta variant, and the higher fraction of the population with some immunity to COVID-19.
As a nation, we’re in the situation depicted below. The blue line is the first year of the pandemic, the red line is the second year. Where it stops, that’s where we are right now.
I’m thrilled to see those low numbers on the William and Mary campus. But I think it’s way too soon to declare victory.
I’ve been reading all about the new vaccine mandates imposed by the Biden administration. So, naturally, I went to see how much vaccinations had risen.
Source: CDC COVID data tracker.
Continue reading Post #1274: COVID-19 vaccine mandates, too late for this year.
If you got the Pfizer vaccine at least six months ago, and have some sort of risk factor (age, medical condition, high-exposure workplace, high-exposure residence), you are eligible to get a booster shot.
But if my experience yesterday was any example, be prepared to stand in line.
This post walks through the evidence around the need for a COVID-19 booster shot, and the rules for who does and does not qualify for one right now.
Continue reading Post #1273: Flu shot congestion and COVID-19 boosters.
New US COVID-19 cases fell about 11% in the last seven days. That’s mostly due to sharp declines in the South Atlantic (e.g., Florida) and South Central (e.g., Louisiana) regions. By contrast, over the past seven days, there has been no change in the new case rate in the U.S. Mountain region. Continue reading Post #1272: COVID-19 trend to 9/30/2021
The US Delta wave continues to recede.
The U.S. is now 32% below the 9/1/2021 peak of the Delta wave. New cases are down 14% in the past week. We now stand at 35 new COVID-19 cases per 100K per day, down from a revised 35.9 yesterday.
That is mostly being driven by rapid reductions in the states that led the Delta wave on upswing, most notably, Florida. With 27 new cases / 100K / day, it is now below the U.S. average.
Continue reading Post #1271: COVID-19 trend to 9/29/2021, no change
