Category: COVID through 2022

All my various postings tracking the COVID-19 pandemic through the end of 2022.

Post #1051: U.K. COVID-19 variant versus the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination rate.

Data sourced from the Helix® COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard. Accessed at Helix.com/covid19db on 3/11/2021.

If you care about the details, read the caveats on the Helix COVID-19 dashboard.  This is from a sample of convenience, it’s not guaranteed to be representative of all cases (not even with in a state, let alone within the U.S. as a whole).  But I think it’s the best data available for estimating the U.S. incidence of the presumably more-infectious U.K. COVID-19 strain B.1.1.7.  And, whatever the bias in the estimate at any point in time, this should still provide a consistent estimate of the trend over time.  As of 3/8/2021 sample collection date, table “Daily Percent SGTF of Positive Samples”

U.K. COVID-19 variant as percent of new cases:

  • U.S., 32%
  • Florida, 52%

Continue reading Post #1051: U.K. COVID-19 variant versus the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination rate.

Post #1050: Trends, data reporting issues, still waiting for the U.K. variant

 

States continue to add old cases into their total case count data.  This muddies up any trends that might be occurring and makes it difficult to track the trend in actual new cases.   This is all by way of saying that it’s hard to tell whether or not there is any change in the trend of new cases.  Continue reading Post #1050: Trends, data reporting issues, still waiting for the U.K. variant

Post #1049: Trend to 3/8/2021: No change

The data source I use accidentally added 50000 cases to one state today.  After correcting that, there’s no change in the U.S. COVID-19 picture compared to yesterday.

Edit:  Nope.  Turns out that Missouri dumped about 50,000 old cases into the file as of yesterday.  (There is literally no mention of this on the Missouri state COVID-19 dashboard.  The only way to know this is to check a single nondescript state-level footnote on the NY Times Github COVID-19 data repository.)

This seems to be a catch-up for reporting of persons who tested positive via antigen testing.  I think that leaves just four states now that do not report those positive antigen tests as positives (Post #1017).   This also means that the Missouri number, going forward, should be about one-third higher than it has been historically.

Source:  Calculated from NY Times Github COVID-19 data repository, data through 3/8/2021. Continue reading Post #1049: Trend to 3/8/2021: No change

Post #1048: Virginia had under 1000 new COVID-19 cases today.

Source:  Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard.

Breaking through a round-number barrier like that usually gets some attention.   I am surprised that this got literally no coverage in the Virginia press.  (Or, at least, Google reveals nothing in the first couple of pages of search.) Continue reading Post #1048: Virginia had under 1000 new COVID-19 cases today.

Post #1047: New cases down 77% from peak. Will the U.S. flunk the marshmallow test?

Source:  Clipart-library.com

The national picture remains good. Daily new COVID-19 cases are just 23% of the peak level, and new cases are falling about 12% per week.

How much longer that will last is not yet known.

You will see experts pointing to the recent upswing in new cases in continental Europe.  They will claim that this means fourth wave in the U.S. is inevitable.

That’s not logically correct, as this post explains.  Mostly, we have a lot more immunity to COVID-19 than the typical European country does.  So the situations are not comparable.

That doesn’t mean we’re not going to have a fourth wave.  It just means that it’s still too soon to tell.

Give it a couple of weeks, and we should know one way or the other.

You’d think, in the context of a year-long pandemic, a couple more weeks of COVID-19 hygiene wouldn’t be a big deal. It’s just a question of whether the overwhelming majority of the U.S. can pass the marshmallow test.

Continue reading Post #1047: New cases down 77% from peak. Will the U.S. flunk the marshmallow test?

Post #1045: Update on the U.K. variant B.1.1.7 in the US

To understand the methods here, look for prior posts using the Helix corporation data to track the U.K. coronavirus variant.

This information is updated weekly by the Helix Corporation.  Data sourced from the Helix® COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard. Accessed at Helix.com/covid19db on 3/5/2021.

Briefly:  By their data, B.1.1.7 now accounts for 42% of Florida COVID-19 cases (42.49% as of 3/3/2021) and 27% of U.S. cases (27.03% as of 3/4/2021), per their Daily Percent SGTF of Positive Samples table. Continue reading Post #1045: Update on the U.K. variant B.1.1.7 in the US

Post #1044: A little statistical evidence that vaccination is working in Virginia

Let me show you something that has a positive message, for a change.

As of today (3/5/2021), Virginia has fully vaccinated 30% of the oldest old (80+), and has fully or partially vaccinated more than 50% of the oldest old.

By the time you’ve got half of a population vaccinated, you ought to be able to see the impact of that on the infection rate.  And, in fact, you can.

As this post demonstrates. Continue reading Post #1044: A little statistical evidence that vaccination is working in Virginia